You pretty much can kiss your upgrade good bye. This flight is 3 weeks from now, and unless you are GS and 1st on the upgrade list, it's highly unlikely.
I think your odds of getting the upgrade are pretty good. If however, this is 6 months before the flight, all bets are off.
So I think seat map is not entirely accurate, but it is helpful.
I think the absence of seats is much more telling than the presence of seats. I have been burned before seeing a wide-open flight, and then it fills up super-fast. But I've never seen a fully loaded flight become empty.
I also think that in conjunction with the fare buckets, how far away the flight is, the historic fullness of the flight, whether or not there is more than one flight per day, the seat *can* be useful in some circumstances.
I use the seat chart to guide my choices on non-international flights, and my expectations of CPUs. 757 out of BWI to Den or IAH are great bets, cuz they are often lightly filled.
Since I have decent schedule flexibility, and I dont mind going thru a stop for extra miles, and upgrades, its cool.
Not 1K, so dont have experience with GPUs in the above post.
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I've found the seat maps generally helpful but certainly not the defining guide. Doing a reservation search now will show how many seats are available at that price, e.g., how many J-class tickets are available. I've found that's a generally fair representation as the seat map won't reflect seats which are purchased but for which seats aren't assigned. I recall a trip from London back to ORD where it showed almost the all of biz open but no upgrades or seats were available.
Alternatively, if it's booked up, you can usually count on one or two opening up. 1K will have a good shot but anything less and no way.
Best way is to check within 24 hours after checking in and seeing where you are on the list vs. how many are booked. Even still, you may lose out.
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Fare classes, IMO, are a better indicator of your odds of clearing. For 747 flights, If UA is showing Z9 ZN9 P9 PN9, then chances of R space being released is more likely, however if any of the four numbers are showing 4 or 5 or less, then your odds are pretty low.
For 757s, I think if P is 6 or higher then there is a decent chance of UA releasing R space for upgrades.
But then again, it all depends on how many people are waitlisted and where you stand on the waitlist. They may actually release a few R spaces in advance, but there might be people on the list that have higher priority than you.
Seat maps do give you a broad rough gauge of advance bookings, but that is the extent of it. Keep in mind, the C or F cabin booking will always be equal or greater number than the number of seats showing as occupied. Let's say there are 15 seats showing as occupied, then that means 15 or more passengers are booked in the C cabin. AFAIK, UA does not block C/F seats for no reason, and if they do it will be a crew rest seat.
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It is a piece of the puzzle, and is helpful in the way you describe.
It is not a science and is subject to pretty dramatic changes, especially in irrops. All indicators can look good for an upgrade (fare buckets, seat maps, historical experience, high booking class)...but watch what happens if an earlier flight to that destination cancels.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aacharya
Fare class is a much better indicator, and requires one less click.
You know, every time we have one of these threads, we have this debate. ;-)
I simply disagree.
What you said is the common perspective on FT. But, in my practical experience, I find seat maps to be more valuable than they are given credit for and I look at the maps as well as the fare class buckets.
Recently, I had an eye-opener. There was a thread where it was discussed that LH actually holds back fare class availability (capped at 4) even when it's larger than 4. This made me realize that there could be a case where a fare bucket shows something less than 9, but, there are more than 9 seats for sale, because an airline might not show all inventory.
Why they do this? I have no idea. But, it shows the value of checking seat maps to corroborate what is shown in fare buckets.
Fare buckets can be > 9 and there can be fewer seats if they are planning to oversell also.
Quote:
Originally Posted by goodeats21
It is a piece of the puzzle, and is helpful in the way you describe.
It is not a science and is subject to pretty dramatic changes, especially in irrops. All indicators can look good for an upgrade (fare buckets, seat maps, historical experience, high booking class)...but watch what happens if an earlier flight to that destination cancels.
Totally agree. I was given a tough lesson in this recently. I booked DEL-MUC-SFO on LH hoping to use GPU, about 3 weeks out. F and J were both wide open, in fact, they were almost empty. All buckets were at 9. It seemed like the closest thing imaginable to a no-brainer. On day of departure, all buckets were at 0. Everything on both flights was sold out.
Besides irrops and other similar factors, I think airlines generally, and UA in particular, have become vastly more aggressive about selling inventory either with cheap HODs/TODs or by dropping P/Z fares to irresistible levels.
Last edited by iluv2fly; Nov 20, 12 at 1:17 pm..
Reason: merge
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mitchmu
Fare buckets can be > 9 and there can be fewer seats if they are planning to oversell also.
In that case, it will only be J inventory, they will not sell C/D/Z/P if is actually booked full. In those cases, the fare class will tell you that you won't get an upgrade.
Bottom line, I think knowledge and experience about time of week and which flight is the best indicator on whether you will clear or not. For instance, don't bother trying to hope for a upgrade on the Sunday SFO-FRA flight on a regular week, or the Thursday/Friday HKG-SFO/ORD/EWR flights.
I use both to give me a rough indicator of my odds, but nothing beats experience/knowledge.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mitchmu
You know, every time we have one of these threads, we have this debate. ;-)
I simply disagree.
What you said is the common perspective on FT. But, in my practical experience, I find seat maps to be more valuable than they are given credit for and I look at the maps as well as the fare class buckets.
Recently, I had an eye-opener. There was a thread where it was discussed that LH actually holds back fare class availability (capped at 4) even when it's larger than 4. This made me realize that there could be a case where a fare bucket shows something less than 9, but, there are more than 9 seats for sale, because an airline might not show all inventory.
Why they do this? I have no idea. But, it shows the value of checking seat maps to corroborate what is shown in fare buckets.
Fare buckets can be > 9 and there can be fewer seats if they are planning to oversell also.
You know, I can't find fault with your argument. Not sure if LH's policy is something that UA does as well, but I do agree. This is especially the case with multi-segment flights, where the fare class is restricted by the "lower" of the segments.
Consider me convinced.
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2013 CPUs: 15/23* RPUs: 5/5 GPUs: 5/5
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Your theory is common sense. Seats open on seat map close to flight = better chance. Seats open on seat map for flight 12 months out = who knows.
With that being said, seat maps aren't reliable until the flight starts boarding and it starts to get finalized. It's always changing, even through boarding.
In that case, it will only be J inventory, they will not sell C/D/Z/P if is actually booked full. In those cases, the fare class will tell you that you won't get an upgrade.
This is actually not true. I regularly see flights (like UA938 on 11/23) that are F4 A4 J3 C3 D3 Z3 P3, yet business is already at capacity and there are exactly 4 F seats unassigned. UA is willing to sell *ANY* premium fare (by way of overselling the J cabin) to fill 3 out of the 4 seats. Only one seat is "held back" for a real F (or A) purchase.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 000123UA
This is actually not true. I regularly see flights (like UA938 on 11/23) that are F4 A4 J3 C3 D3 Z3 P3, yet business is already at capacity and there are exactly 4 F seats unassigned. UA is willing to sell *ANY* premium fare (by way of overselling the J cabin) to fill 3 out of the 4 seats. Only one seat is "held back" for a real F (or A) purchase.
That was assuming F0.
Bottom line, in those scenarios, C is booked full and potentially over booked, you won't get an upgrade unless there are MANY misconnects/no-shows, etc.
I'm trying a different strategy next week. Out of all the flights that are available to me, I booked a flight that has no E+ section. It looks like the elites are avoiding that aircraft like the plague. In other words, almost no competition for upgrades!
What you said is the common perspective on FT. But, in my practical experience, I find seat maps to be more valuable than they are given credit for and I look at the maps as well as the fare class buckets.
Recently, I had an eye-opener. There was a thread where it was discussed that LH actually holds back fare class availability (capped at 4) even when it's larger than 4. This made me realize that there could be a case where a fare bucket shows something less than 9, but, there are more than 9 seats for sale, because an airline might not show all inventory.
Why they do this? I have no idea. But, it shows the value of checking seat maps to corroborate what is shown in fare buckets.
Fare buckets can be > 9 and there can be fewer seats if they are planning to oversell also.
United does do this. Three weeks ago I was watching BCN-EWR with a waitlisted GPU. The seat map was showing relatively empty and the fare classes for economy were all 9 with J7 (PMCO 757 bird with 16 business). Feeling pretty good about my chances. All of a sudden all the fare classes drop to 0 or 1. I panic and look at the seat map, still very open.
Then I realize that with the Sandy impact not fully known (this was for a flight the Saturday after Sandy), United was likely stopping sales to the Newark area. Sure enough two days before the flight when EWR was open again, the fare classes went back in and my upgrade cleared. That is a definite example where the seat map was more useful than the fare classes.
