eyuro

Does anyone have any idea about what is coming to the Northeast next week and how it might affect Newark airport? I am booked on 117 to HKG on Tuesday and was upgraded a few weeks ago. I was wondering if they ground these long, typically full, flights during what is expected to be between 10 to 20 inches of rain if some of the current forecasts pan out. Do heavy rain and 30 to 40 mile an hour winds ground these 777's? Obviously I want to live, but I also need this flight to reach 1K for the year.

craz

too early to know anything for sure, it doesnt look good. By Sun they most probably will know what will be for sure. Im happy I decdied to drive to DTW then fly out of LGA on AAs puddle jumpers they for sure will be grounded even if ist not a direct hit but just close by

flyfreq1t

Too early to predict. Late Saturday or Sunday will give better picture.

smn

Looks like I'm screwed either way. Doing a MR to BDA. Supposed to fly SEA-EWR-BDA on Saturday and BDA-EWR-SEA on Monday. The storm is either going to go to Bermuda on Monday or hit the NYC area, which means our BDA-EWR will most likely get cancelled.

Hoping they announce a travel advisory for one of those airports before we leave Friday night. Of course, hotel in BDA is pre-paid, but hoping they can move that!

flavorflav

20 inches of rain at EWR next week? Don't believe everything you hear. 98 percent of the "forecast" for early next week is, at this early stage, nothing but hype.

By way of comparison, the New Jersey state climatologist reported that 19 inches of rain fell at EWR in the -entire- month of August 2011, which featured TS Irene as well as a lot of other rain.

Despite The Weather Channel's beat efforts to get people wound up, it is too early to make any predictions. It will probably rain next week. How much is the question. For now, nothing to see here.

edcho

Weather is pretty hard to predict 5 days out but a hurricane is near impossible to predict where exactly it will hit. Even with Irene, we weren't even sure where it would land until the day of or how it would all hold together.

Just stay tuned to the NHC (www.nhc.noaa.gov) and take it day by day.



Currently a few models are predicting a direct hit and a few are predicting out to sea so they (NHC) came up with the above. We shall see what the 11 PM updates say.

mduell

During reduced operations they'll generally favor the longhauls over the shorthauls with the slots they have available. If they're expecting more significant delays/cancellations they'll cancel everything (tarmac rule - it's not worth it). Also if the airport authority decides to shut the terminal down (or the airport, but that's extremely rare) they'll have to cancel everything.

FAA has started their storm focused telcons, but at this point the discussion is all around the Caribbean and Miami center.

PV_Premier

having lived in the PHL area for 12 years and in north FL for 5, I can tell you that based on the current position of the storm is it exceedingly unlikely that the eastern seaboard will get more than a glancing blow from this, at least south of Cape Cod. the storm is already too far east to make that coastal sweep under any normal jet stream pattern. now that being said, there is a blocking ridge over the Atlantic right now that -- if it doesn't break down the with the next passing front -- could steer the storm further west...furthermore, as Irene showed, the region north of the Delmarva has a terrible ability to deal with this type of event. I think we'll have a better idea by Friday morning of the exact effects in NYC/BOS corridor.

mduell

The most likely track has it hitting Maine, but there are plenty of ensemble members that point it toward NJ.

craz

well if it doesnt head far enough East then my drive back from DTW is gonna be thru massive snow in the Western Pa Mts. Yet the puddle jumper I would have booked between LGA&DTW wouldnt be flying anyway, so Im still better off having decided to drive it

dmurphynj

Ducky.

I'm supposed to be flying LGA-DEN-SMF Monday morning. Business meetings Mon, Tues & Weds on the left coast but nothing super urgent, so if I had to reschedule them ... not the end of the world.

If this is going to be a ... significant ... event here at home (NJ), then I'd prefer not to go. If the power goes out, massive rain, etc. - I don't want my wife and son here all by themselves if I can help it.

So a nice fancy 'ol travel waiver covering Monday departures would be nice.

PV_Premier

Indeed, the models are starting to somewhat converge in a way that would suggest the feature over the atlantic isn't going to break down in time to push it out to sea. Those tracks pushing the center of the storm right up the Delaware Bay would spell disaster for coastal NJ and DE.

brp1264

Me and a colleague are both watching this one right now. I am scheduled for a Tuesday AM flight PDX-EWR and he is scheduled for a Tuesday flight NRT-EWR.

I assume if EWR is done for on late Monday/early Tuesday my flight will be either delayed or cancelled.

Anyone know what they do for long-haul flights arriving in EWR around the time of the storm? The best guess we had was that they would likely divert to ORD instead of landing in EWR or trying for IAD.

dmurphynj

Wow, this looks like it could very well be devastating.

Hope the models are wrong ...

PV_Premier

if it is clear that the storm is going to be an issue those flights are likely to be cxl at their origins i would expect. there is an arguable operational advantage to getting the aircraft to the US, since it would allow them to get back on track sooner with the schedule once the storm passes, but i can't imagine they would put people on them and say 'we hope to get you to EWR, or ORD, or IAH, or IAD, or...if you choose to board this flight' then again, nothing would surprise me.