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Old Feb 8, 12, 5:33 am   #16
 
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I've waited until a few days out to buy a ticket so I could get a higher class. A work, we generally have to buy the lowest cost ticket unless it's $100 - $200 more for the higher class ticket.
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Old Feb 8, 12, 6:38 am   #17
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1k650 View Post
Or - do not put your MP number in the record and get a TOD upsell offer. This will trump everyone on the UG list, including 1ks with Y tickets, probably at a much lower cost.
O RLY?

Hm, never thought of that. But then I'd have to pay out of pocket for it as company will never reimburse for upgrades. At least having the option would be nice though. I can only book lowest proposed fare + maybe $300. Sometimes our system will show refundable fares but I can't book them if there's a cheaper non-refundable fare.

Have I mentioned lately how much I hate our corporate travel system? --> CWT <--
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Old Feb 8, 12, 10:09 am   #18
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1k650 View Post
Or - do not put your MP number in the record and get a TOD upsell offer. This will trump everyone on the UG list, including 1ks with Y tickets, probably at a much lower cost.
With the inherent danger that, if your upgrade doens't go through, you end up without a way to get a decent coach seat (of which there are 12 on the SFO-SYD run, so good luck with that!).
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Old Feb 8, 12, 11:04 am   #19
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by born sleepy View Post
Have I mentioned lately how much I hate our corporate travel system? --> CWT <--
We dumped CWT about a year ago and went to AmEx travel instead. Good riddance, CWT sucked!
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Old Feb 8, 12, 11:45 am   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ljwobker View Post
I think the right place for this is udustats.com ... it has the key data fields that you need (routing, date, fare class, whether an upgrade cleared) ... but you'll need a LOT of participation to get something that is statistically significant. It's also entirely possible that even if you got the entire flyertalk population to give you their data that it wouldn't be much better than a one-standard-deviation guess... ;-S
Argh. . Okay, I get your point. And it's a good one! . But I literally cannot help myself...

\begin{pedantic}

By definition, you won't get an estimate better than one standard deviation. That's more or less the definition of standard deviation -- at least, it's the definition of sample standard deviation. But that quantity is dependent on the sample size, and so the statement is true regardless of how many people you survey. Survey every pax, and you'll get a one-standard-deviation guess. Which would be pretty accurate!

There's also the population standard deviation, which measures how much the data tend to fluctuate, but that's actually mostly irrelevant here. We want to estimate the probability P of getting an upgrade, but the data are binary (yes or no for each trial), so the population standard deviation is just P(1-P), which isn't really meaningful for this discussion.

Truth is, in this case we wouldn't need a very big sample to get statistically significant results. We're trying to estimate a probability P between 0 and 1, and the error in that estimate is at most 1/sqrt(N), so N=1000 random samples would be more than enough The real problem is that we need an unbiased (fair) sample, and there's a major selection bias problem here (as noted upstream re: UDU) ... plus FTers aren't a random sample anyway. So it's systematic errors that are gonna kill you here, not finite-sample statistical noise.

\end{pedantic}

Whew! I feel better now!
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Old Feb 8, 12, 12:02 pm   #21
 
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My company travel policy is all economy all the time, lowest fare possible.

However, I will request that they purchase Y/B for international travel in the following situations:
A) I have a highly complex itinerary (> 8 segments). In 2011, I had 6 separate trips that fell into this category
B) There is a >50% possibility of a change occuring mid trip. I loathe having to deal with a foreign carrier ticket desk when a last second change occurs. While not bad in Europe, try Istanbul where English is rarely spoken.
C) I am flying into an uncertain weather or other IRROP's situation (like a snow out in Europe).

With regards to Item C, in the event of IRROPS on a foreign carrier, I want to be as high up on the standby list for the next flight as possible which means a Y/B ticket. I do not like being low on the standby list as a *G behind other *G's and the elites of the airline I'm flying on (LH most of the time). I had 5 flight cancellations during Dec 2010-Feb 2011 where a higher ticket fare helped out on getting me the next flight instead of being stranded.

Interal in the States, it's cheapest possible as my 1K status is good enough to be high up on the standby list in the event of IRROPS.

While I fight, claw and scrap to get into B/C, my primary goal is to get to the meeting on time, otherwise, why go in the first place (well, to earn miles and hotel stays/points, etc.)
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Old Feb 8, 12, 12:10 pm   #22
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Jacoubowsky View Post
With the inherent danger that, if your upgrade doens't go through, you end up without a way to get a decent coach seat (of which there are 12 on the SFO-SYD run, so good luck with that!).
Of course, after you check-in and if you do not get the TOD offer, you can always add in your MP number and get a E+, although probably not the very best ones.

But the TOD offers are so consistent now that I think this is what I will be doing rather than paying hundreds of dollars to play the SWU lottery and then end up on the list as no. 27 or 42 or worse...

Quote:
Originally Posted by QBK View Post
Argh. . Okay, I get your point. And it's a good one! . But I literally cannot help myself...

\begin{pedantic}

By definition, you won't get an estimate better than one standard deviation. That's more or less the definition of standard deviation -- at least, it's the definition of sample standard deviation. But that quantity is dependent on the sample size, and so the statement is true regardless of how many people you survey. Survey every pax, and you'll get a one-standard-deviation guess. Which would be pretty accurate!

There's also the population standard deviation, which measures how much the data tend to fluctuate, but that's actually mostly irrelevant here. We want to estimate the probability P of getting an upgrade, but the data are binary (yes or no for each trial), so the population standard deviation is just P(1-P), which isn't really meaningful for this discussion.

Truth is, in this case we wouldn't need a very big sample to get statistically significant results. We're trying to estimate a probability P between 0 and 1, and the error in that estimate is at most 1/sqrt(N), so N=1000 random samples would be more than enough The real problem is that we need an unbiased (fair) sample, and there's a major selection bias problem here (as noted upstream re: UDU) ... plus FTers aren't a random sample anyway. So it's systematic errors that are gonna kill you here, not finite-sample statistical noise.

\end{pedantic}

Whew! I feel better now!
+1 from another statistician! Good Job!

Last edited by iluv2fly; Feb 8, 12 at 1:08 pm.. Reason: merge
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Old Feb 8, 12, 12:18 pm   #23
 
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my apologies for using the non-engineering terms... but I think most folks understand the point I was trying to make: which is that flyertalk doesn't give you access to the information that you actually need to get good results... pedantics aside... my last legitimate statistics work was about 20 years ago
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Old Feb 8, 12, 12:28 pm   #24
 
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Sounds like I will be looking for NC space alot harder

I cannot do the full fare tickets so I guess I will be a daily logger to ua.com and look for that award availability. Just like I did today when NC popped open two seats from SFO-ORD lie flats and I slapped a regional on it. I am on a G fare code. Even as a 1K I see 50 people on the upgrade lists and am tired of sitting in coach.
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Old Feb 8, 12, 12:32 pm   #25
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darksidesith View Post
I cannot do the full fare tickets so I guess I will be a daily logger to ua.com and look for that award availability. Just like I did today when NC popped open two seats from SFO-ORD lie flats and I slapped a regional on it. I am on a G fare code. Even as a 1K I see 50 people on the upgrade lists and am tired of sitting in coach.
Have you checked out sbm12 / Wandering Aramean's newly updated tool?

Hopefully will make the process easier for you.

http://boardingarea.com/blogs/thewan...ta-and-united/

Do you use expertflyer or KVS?
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Old Feb 8, 12, 5:07 pm   #26
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by born sleepy View Post
O RLY?

Hm, never thought of that. But then I'd have to pay out of pocket for it as company will never reimburse for upgrades. At least having the option would be nice though. I can only book lowest proposed fare + maybe $300. Sometimes our system will show refundable fares but I can't book them if there's a cheaper non-refundable fare.

Have I mentioned lately how much I hate our corporate travel system? --> CWT <--
Me too! Liked AMEX much better.
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Old Feb 8, 12, 6:05 pm   #27
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Let's stick to the topic:

Do you buy a higher fare-class (Y, B, U, H, M) solely to increase SWU/CR-1 chances?

Thanks.

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Old Feb 8, 12, 7:15 pm   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mherdeg View Post
... your K fare + copay would be prioritized below all W fare + SWU requests...
This is not the case on the current sCO system for upgrades in advance of the OLCI window. I'm not certain how they're going to do it in the new system but I wouldn't be surprised if the old sCO method survived. In that world time added to the list is the tie-breaker after status. Fare doesn't matter.

At the gate it can (I think), but not in advance.
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Old Feb 8, 12, 7:22 pm   #29
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sbm12 View Post
This is not the case on the current sCO system for upgrades in advance of the OLCI window. I'm not certain how they're going to do it in the new system but I wouldn't be surprised if the old sCO method survived. In that world time added to the list is the tie-breaker after status. Fare doesn't matter.

At the gate it can (I think), but not in advance.
Here's the priority:
http://www.mileageplusmergerupdates....radesOverview?

Quote:
  • Instant upgrades that weren't confirmed in advance, on select Economy tickets, sorted by fare class, then status
  • Global Premier Upgrades, Regional Premier Upgrades, and Mileage Upgrade Awards, sorted by status, fare class and date of waitlist
  • All remaining Premier members, by status, then fare class
Note no distinction between the GPU/RPUs/Mileage upgrades, except that they all happen BEFORE CPUs (the third bullet).

So a 2P with a mileage upgrade would always clear before a 1K on a W fare looking for a CPU (where CPUs are available).


Here's how it would work (CPU added where available):
  • Y fare GS CPU
  • Y fare 1K CPU
  • Y fare Plat CPU
  • Y fare Gold CPU
  • Y fare Silver CPU
  • B fare GS CPU
  • B fare 1K CPU
  • B fare Plat CPU
  • B fare Gold CPU
  • B fare Silver CPU
  • M fare GS CPU
  • M fare 1K CPU
  • GS GPU/RPU/Mileage by fare class, then date of waitlist
  • 1K GPU/RPU/Mileage by fare class, then date of waitlist
  • Plat RPU/Mileage by fare class, then date of waitlist
  • Gold Mileage by fare class, then date of waitlist
  • Silver Mileage by fare class, then date of waitlist
  • General Member Mileage by fare class, then date of waitlist
    ---- All above this line can happen at any time, below happen on clearance windows ----
  • GS (fare code lower than M) CPU by fare class
  • 1K (fare code lower than M) CPU by fare class
  • Plat (fare code lower than B) CPU by fare class
  • Gold (fare code lower than B) CPU by fare class
  • Silver (fare code lower than B) CPU by fare class

Therefore, as a GS/1K, you definitely improve your standing by buying a higher fare when using an instrument (whether GPU/RPU/Miles)
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Last edited by bmvaughn; Feb 8, 12 at 7:55 pm.. Reason: Clean up edits
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Old Feb 8, 12, 7:42 pm   #30
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bmvaughn View Post
So a 2P with a mileage upgrade would always clear before a 1K on a W fare looking for a CPU.
This is the way it should be in my opinion.

A GM using a miles upgrade would be in this category too, correct?


"Global Premier Upgrades, Regional Premier Upgrades, and Mileage Upgrade Awards, sorted by status, fare class and date of waitlist"

First:
Instant upgrades for all Y tickets (ordered by status - GS, 1K, 0P, 1P, 2P)
Instant upgrades for all B tickets (ordered by status - GS, 1K, 0P, 1P, 2P)
Instant upgrades for all M tickets (ordered by status - GS and 1K only)


Then:
1) GS using GPU, RPU, or miles to upgrade in a high fare bucket (not y, b, or m or they would have already instant upgraded)
2) GS using GPU, RPU, or miles to upgrade in a lower fare bucket
3) GS - If fare bucket is the same, then date supported upgrade added to waitlist

4) 1K using GPU, RPU, or miles to upgrade in a high fare bucket (not y, b, or m or they would have already instant upgraded)
5) 1K using GPU, RPU, or miles to upgrade in a lower fare bucket
6) 1K - If fare bucket is the same, then date supported upgrade added to waitlist

7) Platinum / 0P using GPU, RPU, or miles to upgrade in a high fare bucket (not y, b, or m or they would have already instant upgraded)
8) Platinum / 0P using GPU, RPU, or miles to upgrade in a lower fare bucket
9) Platinum / 0P - If fare bucket is the same, then date supported upgrade added to waitlist

10) 1P using GPU, RPU, or miles to upgrade in a high fare bucket (not y or b or they would have already instant upgraded)
11) 1P using GPU, RPU, or miles to upgrade in a lower fare bucket
12) 1P - If fare bucket is the same, then date supported upgrade added to waitlist

13) 2P using GPU, RPU, or miles to upgrade in a high fare bucket (not y or b or they would have already instant upgraded)
14) 2P using GPU, RPU, or miles to upgrade in a lower fare bucket
15) 2P - If fare bucket is the same, then date supported upgrade added to waitlist

16) GM using miles to upgrade in a high fare bucket
17) GM using miles to upgrade in a lower fare bucket
18) GM - If fare bucket is the same, then date supported upgrade added to waitlist

And finally:
After all of the above upgrades have cleared, then CPU system kicks in.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bmvaughn View Post
Here's how it would work (CPU added where available):
  • Y fare GS CPU
  • Y fare 1K CPU
  • Y fare Plat CPU
  • Y fare Gold CPU
  • Y fare Silver CPU
  • B fare GS CPU
  • B fare 1K CPU
  • B fare Plat CPU
  • B fare Gold CPU
  • B fare Silver CPU
  • M fare GS CPU
  • M fare 1K CPU
Is the 'Instant Upgrade' categorized as a CPU?

And, is the M class instant upgrade only for 1K and GS? (I thought it included 0P / Plat)

Answered my own question from the link you provided:

"On select flights, a Premier member traveling on a full-fare economy Y- and B-class fares may be eligible for an instant upgrade as early as time of ticketing. Additionally, Premier 1KŪ members may be eligible for these upgrades when purchasing M-class fares."

Last edited by LarkSFO; Feb 8, 12 at 7:57 pm..
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