fozziedoggie

Hi,
I am not very familiar with United's hierarchy road-map, so I thought I would ask for clarification and insight here.

Have a business "Z" fare booked in mid-July from IAD to SFO. A colleague of mine has a regional upgrade certificate that's going to expire late August, so he is willing to give it to me to use for this trip.

I looked at the T&C's on United's website and believe the following to be true:
My "Z" class is not a very high fare class, and as such, will place me on a wait-list for upgrade to FC (cannot receive confirmed upgrade now). I have no status with United at all, so I believe all others with any status would be upgraded over me. If this is the case, does anyone know what the successful chances are for getting a wait-list upgrade on this route? As of today, all FC seats (8 total) are available for sale on United's website, and if I had 15K miles plus $75, I could buy an immediate upgrade (I don't have enough miles). As an option, I can purchase enough miles for the upgrade, but that would add an additional $400 to what I have paid already...not sure if that's good value.

Thanks for your help.

jsloan

Certificate upgrades and mileage + copay upgrades clear into the same inventory. If you would be on the waitlist with the RPU, you'd be on the same waitlist, with the same priority, with miles + copay (and vice versa; if there's a seat available for miles + copay, that same seat is available with an RPU). If your friend is willing to give you the RPU, that seems like the best option by far.

fozziedoggie

Thanks...sorry, I'm a bit confused still. If United charges my credit card up front for miles + cash, it's not a confirmed upgrade immediately?

jsloan

Sadly, that's correct. The copay is charged, and the miles are deducted, and you will still be put on the waitlist if there's no inventory available. The copay and miles are refunded after travel if the upgrade fails to clear.

Nicholas

Agree that the RPU is the best option. If you'd like to PM me the date, I can tell you if there is upgrade availability at the moment.

findark

That being said, I think the odds of clearing that RPU are very low unless it's a Saturday or Tuesday. Only 8 F seats and between Y->F sellups and international connections it's pretty rare for more than 1 F seat to be an upgrade on that flight.

Collierkr

Agreed. With no status for OP this has virtually no chance of clearing unless it clears at time of application.

txaggiemiles

Since this is not a Y->F upgrade but is actually a J->F upgrade on a 3-cabin plane flying a domestic route, does that hurt or help OP's chances? I am just curious for my own understanding.

mauiUAflyer

I would say it helps...

fumje

Actually I would think the chances of clearing J->F on 3-cabin domestic are not bad. And anyway, there is nothing to lose by waitlisting the RPU, unless the friend has other purposes in mind for it.

findark

It's hard question answer in the abstract.. but in the specific case the chances are not good. There are only 8 F seats on the 772, for 269 total pax. UA does not try particularly hard to do efficient market segmentation between J and F on domestic routes; sometimes "proper" F is full F only, and sometimes any old close-in A fare sits you all the way up front.

Add to that the fact that anyone on an international A or F ticket making the connection is going to try to choose that flight and it's usually timed to make that easy. Also add in that the "TOD" at-purchase/OLCI offer is capable of upselling from Y to F.

All of those odds against 8 seats, and it's pretty rare for an upgrade to clear J->F on SFO/IAD. In my 3 trips in the F cabin on the 3-class 772 (all via $249 at-purchase buyups from Y), I think the only cleared upgrades I saw were battlefield due to no-shows.

fozziedoggie

Okay, follow-up question:

Did the upgrade request and followed up with a phone call to MP call center. It's now exactly two months prior to flight, and according to the CSR, I am the only person on the upgrade list at this time and all FC seats are still available. So, can anyone tell me how soon do upgrades clear? CSR states it can happen today through day of flight

Realistically, when will I know if I'm getting upgraded or not?

IAH-OIL-TRASH

In this case, the CSR is telling you the absolute truth. You'll know when you get it. No use getting frazzled about it for potentially 2 months. United has no obligation to make seats available for upgrades at specific times. In fact, giving them out too early may work against higher-status customers. A 1k might be annoyed booking a flight at a high fare 2 weeks out and find lower-status people have snagged all the upgrades. Another factor is UA may oversell J, reserving F capacity until flight time to accommodate the oversell.

In your specific case, I'd assume I'm not getting the upgrade and be pleasantly surprised if it happens.

Your chances of moving up are far better by buying an upgrade than using the RPU with your status

mahasamatman

Realistically, only when you board the plane. United is going to hold on to those seats for revenue as long as possible.

fozziedoggie

Thanks. Not really "worried" about it, just more curious since I'm not a status member with any airline; just want to see how the sausage is made.

Also, for clarification purposes, I was able to re-book a couple of other flights and had enough miles for the $75 + 15K upgrade (didn't end up using the RU). As of today, approximately 85% of the Business Class seats are still available for sale on United's website.

So I will wait.

Thanks.