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United ends Tokyo – Seoul route in Oct 2017

United ends Tokyo – Seoul route in Oct 2017

Old Apr 9, 2017, 11:23 am
  #121  
 
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Originally Posted by east_west
ICN is the 5th largest non-NA foreign destination from the USA (in order, London, Tokyo, Paris, Frankfurt, Seoul). ICN (5.43M px/yr) has nearly the same passenger traffic as all of mainland China combined (5.95M px/yr). [Source: DOT US International Air Passenger and Freight Statistics Report for December 2015, for YE 2015]

ICN serves far more than tech -- it serves significant military/defense contractors (east coast heavy), students, entertainment industry, family travel, and tourism.

If ICN is too much lift for a 350 seat aircraft, UA is going to have a serious problem figuring out what to do with the new 77W frames.

UA doesn't have the benefit of JV feed on the ICN end and neither KE/OZ have JV feed on the NA-end, until the DL tieup with KE completes. UA should be able to compete for this market. This reinforces my point that UA is retreating from ICN to avoid the coming DL/KE combo with connecting flights on both ends.

BKK and ICN aren't comparable for many reasons.
SFO-ICN was a 777 for some time before the 747 fleet was consolidated at SFO, and while it also operated with a 747 at other points in the relatively recent past before that, it suggests to me that United does not necessarily need the high capacity of a 747 to make the route economical. The fact that a market can generate a high volume of traffic does not make it axiomatic that a carrier must deploy its highest gauge on the route to turn a profit.

IMO the SFO-ICN downgauge has more to do with the 747 retirement and the prospect that the company might have more lucrative opportunities on which to deploy the 77W for now. That leaves only the 772 and 787 as alternatives. The 789 and 772 are close in capacity (789 with materially lower operating costs) and it appears UA is orienting the 772 fleet to IAH/EWR/ORD. Making changes based on the DL/KE MOU (a revenue-sharing JV is not close to implementation) seems a bit speculative, at present.

Originally Posted by PsiFighter37
I don't think SFO-KIX has ever had a 744 on it? Thought that was always a Dreamliner route.
I believe it went to a 747 around the same time the fleet was focused on SFO, as was TPE, IIRC.

Last edited by EWR764; Apr 9, 2017 at 11:28 am
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Old Apr 9, 2017, 6:20 pm
  #122  
 
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ummm

The dream liners are only a few years old. United has served SFO-KIX for at least 20, if not more, years. So it's physically impossible for it to always have been a Dreamliner route.

I flew a 744 on KIX - SFO in 2013, and it's alternated between that and a 777 over the years. Now it's a Dreamliner.

Originally Posted by PsiFighter37
I don't think SFO-KIX has ever had a 744 on it? Thought that was always a Dreamliner route.

As for TPE, because it is a *A hub (not sure what kind of arrangements they have with EVA), perhaps it made sense? Imagine there is a decent amount of tech folks flying SFO-TPE as well, particularly from the manufacturing side...
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Old Apr 9, 2017, 6:44 pm
  #123  
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Originally Posted by jasondc
... United has served SFO-KIX for at least 20, if not more, years. ...
KIX opened in Sept 1994. Has a very interest history being an man-made island.
ITM was the Kansai area's main airport before that -- ITM serves as a domestic airport today.
But we are starting to stray OT.
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Old Apr 9, 2017, 11:35 pm
  #124  
 
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Originally Posted by EWR764
SFO-ICN was a 777 for some time before the 747 fleet was consolidated at SFO, and while it also operated with a 747 at other points in the relatively recent past before that, it suggests to me that United does not necessarily need the high capacity of a 747 to make the route economical. The fact that a market can generate a high volume of traffic does not make it axiomatic that a carrier must deploy its highest gauge on the route to turn a profit.
Not to argue whether or not the ICN route is generating enough profit or not, but when UA was running the 777 on SFO-ICN, they also had a 777 on the NRT-ICN route as well. This went on for quite a while, as I was on both routes several times a year.
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Old Apr 10, 2017, 5:44 am
  #125  
 
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I guess it was unavoidable. This route was doomed the day they decided to pull out the big birds. But they could add service from a Eastern US location straight into Seoul. Like: EWR-ICN, or IAD-ICN.

Because from the East Coast, going to ICN means getting up at 3AM. Unless of course the idea is to have NH, OZ or even CA pick up the slack for Asia-based transfers.
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Old Apr 10, 2017, 7:42 am
  #126  
 
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Originally Posted by skidooman

Because from the East Coast, going to ICN means getting up at 3AM. Unless of course the idea is to have NH, OZ or even CA pick up the slack for Asia-based transfers.
I think that's the only viable solution - using NH/OZ etc, unless UA has in mind a schedule change.

Although the real challenge there is that, once the ~2hour turn is built in, it's tough to leave late enough in the morning/early afternoon and return the plane in time to make east coast connections.
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Old Apr 10, 2017, 11:41 am
  #127  
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Originally Posted by warrenw
This is a regular route for me. I'm sure it's going to be handed over to OZ (I rarely if ever see NH codeshares) but that's going to make the price even higher.
it's been a year but in the past i found nrticn booked on oz or nh to be a very affordable route, $100-150 return. and this is booked 2-3 weeks advance.
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Old Apr 10, 2017, 1:22 pm
  #128  
 
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They have really screwed their Japan based elites with the removal of the ex Tokyo Asia services to SIN, BKK, etc. Amazing. The Tokyo hub was quite an institution. I think they will live to regret its demise. They will never get back in.
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Old Apr 10, 2017, 3:20 pm
  #129  
 
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Originally Posted by iquitos
They have really screwed their Japan based elites with the removal of the ex Tokyo Asia services to SIN, BKK, etc. Amazing. The Tokyo hub was quite an institution. I think they will live to regret its demise. They will never get back in.
With 787/A350 and JVs, I don't think UA has any intentions of getting back into any of its 5th freedom flights anywhere. Last one left is HKG-SIN.
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Old Apr 10, 2017, 5:43 pm
  #130  
 
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Originally Posted by cur
it's been a year but in the past i found nrticn booked on oz or nh to be a very affordable route, $100-150 return. and this is booked 2-3 weeks advance.
Lol I haven't seen that, ever. Last time I did a RT to NRT it was 300+.

NH would probably be cheaper but they don't fly to ICN. I guess I could fly via GMP but I don't have as many options for the airport bus to GMP from where I live.
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Old Apr 10, 2017, 6:57 pm
  #131  
 
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Originally Posted by 1kBill
Not to argue whether or not the ICN route is generating enough profit or not, but when UA was running the 777 on SFO-ICN, they also had a 777 on the NRT-ICN route as well. This went on for quite a while, as I was on both routes several times a year.

Yes. I noticed that the equipment arriving from NRT would depart to SFO the next day although I'm not sure if it always worked like this. They had two daily 777 between NRT and ICN each way for years in fact, but the route eventually had one daily 777 in March 2013 before going to 737.
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Old Apr 10, 2017, 7:05 pm
  #132  
 
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Originally Posted by hirohito888
With 787/A350 and JVs, I don't think UA has any intentions of getting back into any of its 5th freedom flights anywhere. Last one left is HKG-SIN.
Isn't DL dismantling their 5th Freedom flights from NRT slowly as well? It seems like except for the longer-haul 5th Freedom flights (like NZ LAX-LHR or SQ JFK-FRA), these are a slowly dying breed, particularly for the US3.
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Old Aug 12, 2017, 12:54 pm
  #133  
 
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Any future Korea route

Since UA is going to cancel their NRT-ICN in Oct, I'm wondering if there's any possibility that they will start any new route. I'm sure UA doesn't want to give up their slots at ICN when cancelling the NRT flight.

Last edited by speedbird0125; Aug 12, 2017 at 1:04 pm
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Old Aug 12, 2017, 6:56 pm
  #134  
 
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Originally Posted by speedbird0125
Since UA is going to cancel their NRT-ICN in Oct, I'm wondering if there's any possibility that they will start any new route. I'm sure UA doesn't want to give up their slots at ICN when cancelling the NRT flight.
I would agree if ICN was staying at capacity it is now, but they are nearly doubling the size of the airport in two months with the opening of their third terminal (two full size terminals and one satellite). The airport will be under capacity for the next decade at least, I don't think they should have to worry about getting another slot haha
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Old Aug 12, 2017, 8:09 pm
  #135  
 
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Originally Posted by speedbird0125
Since UA is going to cancel their NRT-ICN in Oct, I'm wondering if there's any possibility that they will start any new route. I'm sure UA doesn't want to give up their slots at ICN when cancelling the NRT flight.
I think UA currently is exclusively China centric and Korea or Japan are not on their horizon for now. Not only are they giving up the ICN slot, they are further retreating from NRT, leaving another slot behind.

Last edited by Exleftseat; Aug 12, 2017 at 8:32 pm
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