halls120

correct. I used to book flights with points 4-6 months out, and I could find confirmable upgrade space in J. Now the only deals I find are close in, like 3 days before departure.

jsloan

You're based in LA, one of UA's most competitive markets. This trend has been obvious in most of the rest of the country for years. UA was quite obviously using what was essentially an Oklahoma-shaped graph, if you will -- high prices early, then they'd drop at some date, hover around the low point, and then increase again prior to departure. And even 60+ -- which I've only ever seen on international fares and most often discount business only -- is still within the 3 month to 6 week window I laid out. (I have seen a very small number of ultra-long advance purchase fares for discount business, which is why I mentioned the Premium Deals thread).

June is just barely in range of where I'd be looking. (I've been looking recently -- in vain -- for PZ space around Memorial Day myself). And, you're right about last summer's European fares -- and obviously UA is hoping the same thing will happen this year. I suspect they'll fail, but even if I'm wrong, if UA is 2x the price of the competition, there are three logical options: (a) fly the competition; (b) wait to see if UA drops; (c) go somewhere else. Option (d), "Pay it anyway because it might get worse," seems foolish to me -- and I say that as a UAL investor.

seanp7

They are definitely less than back in the day, but I wouldn't say "all but vanished". Depending on route, MP level, & time of year, they can be widely available at "saver" award rates...UA.com even denotes it as such. YMMV.

Kacee

The US majors definitely have very different approaches to fare pricing (though that doesn't mean they won't move in concert on any given route for competitive purposes). My personal take, fwiw, is that UA is the most sophisticated (by a fairly large margin) and AA just makes one bone-headed mistake after another.

nomad420

To this point I am certainly NOT feeling like I need to jump on a J fare today for a trip next October. I figure it can't get much higher anyhow. Having said that I have been burned and I am sure others can give their sad stories on this as well. I have one particular horror story on a SFO to MUC fare from a few years back...

Kacee

And when you see West Coast to Europe for $2.5k or less, jump on it! I bought two of these (one UA ticketed, one BA ticketed), and two of the prior year's bargain TATL J fare, which was priced around $1400.

unitedbusiness

Absolutely… prices in march/ April are through the roof from south florida … many places are $500 + one way!

Lux Flyer

I mean this is pricing 101. If people are buying at the current price, prices continue to go up. Else you test the waters with a slightly lower price. by releasing a couple seats in a lower bucket. If those go pretty quick after being released you know 1) people are watching that flight and 2) you're in the ball park of what the market is going to bear currently. If people buy that lower price you go back up to see if you can get a higher price from the next buyers (and if there's multiple people watching, good chance you will do to the psychological effect of "missing out" on that lower price thinking it would continue to go lower). Else if people don't bite you continue to repeat that process of releasing lower fares until you figure out where people will buy at. Now do that for the close to 1 million flights populated in your schedule at any one time. The art of revenue management is figuring out when exactly to make those changes to be wiling to fill your plane with lower fares and by how much you need to do it.

And of course with the use of continuous pricing you can fine tune those price points even more to more accurately capture the going rate for individual seats.

Spring break time when bookings are well ahead of pace by 20-40% over 2019 same period.

nomad420

LOL totally the case. I have migrated a few times away from the "hamster wheel" over the years. Currently I have a couple of TPAC and TATLs coming up and since I am booking J class I don't care who I fly (well not totally). To your point the chances are more often than not you'll end with a better product. Certain of my domestics runs I still run with UA because of schedule and occasional pricing but even that is becoming less common.

Repooc17

This is not complicated.

If you want to book fares 6-12 months out, go for it. If United is selling 2x higher than others, book others, vice versa. If you are inclined to stay with UA, despite the higher prices, UA thanks you.

While UA may have some competitive fares far out in certain markets, by and large, UA does not file discounted fare buckets for those extended periods.

Fares are governed by fare rule.

cfischer

There is some great UA pricing right now, paid and w/ miles. You just need to find it. With change fees gone ... booking early pays off over and over again. It's been great to be honest ... haven't flown that cheaply in many years.

moondog

The rt price was 90k

maxoutdeals

You should always book your flights 3-6 months in advance, it's the best way to get cheaper rates.

jsloan

:-) You buy different tickets than most of the rest of us, and I suspect you define “cheaply” differently too. Last year was brutally expensive — and I spent about $130 per PQF. So far this year, my UA purchases are coming in at a much more reasonable $75 / PQF.

No, it’s really, really not. I promise. It might be true on certain routes at certain times of the year, but it’s absolutely not some global panacea. The airlines are really good at this. If there really were a best possible pattern to purchasing airfare, they’d change their pricing strategies to eliminate it. You may sometimes find a good deal 3-6 months out, but there is no hard and fast rule. Note that even though I gave a broad range in my suggestion, there have still been several counterexamples. There really is no single best strategy.

Sykes

I've had a pretty good year too, mainly because there have been a lot of deals in paid business class. My $/PQF is probably more like $500, but that's because I've spent a lot of time on $2,000 international business class roundtrips. (Having said that, it's been a terrible year for some of my clients with truly inflexible travel requirements who have gotten stuck with $10k roundtrips because they were the only reasonable option.)

This article on advance purchase timing seems like the best analysis I've found so far: https://www.cheapair.com/blog/the-be...o-buy-flights/ ... they found that 21 to 127 days in advance is optimal, with really the middle of that window being the best.