gengar

No doubt PMUA has a long history of running away from competition. The problem is, like many of the bad things from the PMUA era, they've only gotten worse (and often far worse, as this announcement shows) post-merger. As I pointed out in response to several in the JFK-IAD cancellation thread who did not believe UA would ever axe p.s. JFK-SFO/LAX, I'm sure 20 or even 15 years ago no one would have thought UA would have eliminated JFK-LHR either.

My big concern with current UA management is their history of not only running from competition, but also slashing soft product, frequency, and/or hard product to the point where it is no longer competitive and then eliminating service altogether on the grounds that for some unfathomable reason they are no longer making money on the service. That's why I feel that the "transition" to EWR is nothing more than a precursor for the elimination of p.s. That's why I feel bad for all the EWR fans rah-rah'ing the switch. I'm not sure I would bank on it being around for long.

ECOTONE

would love to see UA partner with one of the helicopter services in the greater NYC area (Gotham Air, for instance). adding on helicopter service from EWR-JRB/TSS would be a good way to retain (or gain) share of the premium $ market. i know pmCO had a relationship with, now-defunct, US Helicopter...

aacharya

I think the unique/HVF nature of NYC-LAX/SFO and the introduction of competitor product offerings will force United to not drop it. Whether or not in 10 years the entire landscape will change is a different discussion.

REPUBLIC757

Yeah go read up on a.net about this topic. The cheerleaders are out and about bowing down to EWR as if it's some sort of religious figure.

In all seriousness, you are right. It is financial suicide to run 15-17 757s a day to EWR.

So I guess this is also what UA means by "shifting" sCO 757 to domestic routes? They are taking 12 frames to accomplish this PS strategy, I'm going to assume there won't be enough other frames to go around to help out the rest of the network (on routes where they need it like BOS-SFO or CA to Hawaii.) Maybe they'l convert more sUA 757s that are left to PS standard?

Talking about stretching a network ultra thin. CO did that pretty well

blueman2

I agree. I make 2 predictions:

1) UA will not convert all LAX/SFO-EWR flights to ps as they now promise. 2 years from now, it will still be a mix of about 50% of each. 95% confidence interval.

2) 3 years from now, ps will be dropped in it's entirety because 'it is not making money'. 80% confidence interval.

sfozrhfco

Well, to be honest, they have already dropped out of the competitive market--which is LAX/SFO-JFK. There are only a few flights a day of competition in the SFO/LAX-EWR market from VX and VX has no lie flat seats. Those passengers that are flying to EWR now due to convenience or whatever will continue to fly to EWR. For those that are going to stay at JFK, they will choose another carrier.

UA can already charge a high price for premium seats regardless of the product they offer at EWR as Virgin literally offers 24 J seats each way from SFO and the same from LAX each way/day.

The question for UA becomes how much is overkill and are there literally no other routes that UA could use these planes on to generate a greater profit.

Austin787

12 sCO 757 planes plus the 15 PS 757, for 27 757s with lie flats. Should be enough for up to 12 flights a day on LAX/SFO-EWR. UA may standardize the configurations, or keep the 16J and 28J configs depending on premium demand. The 737s and A320s currently flying LAX/SFO-EWR can be redeployed elsewhere.

e53nyc

Agree 100%. United implemented PS meal service on the EWR flights (via a big media push, no less) after Virgin entered the market, only to have UA pull back in less than 12 months. This is pure marketing and PR spin to lessen the blow of retreating from JFK. PS from EWR will be back to standard domestic service in 2-3 years' time because they have no competition into EWR.

The only way I see this changing is if Virgin ever puts in flat-beds up front, and makes a stronger push into EWR (possible), or JetBlue puts Mint out of EWR (1% possibility, at best). Delta and American will never make a push into EWR transcon flights.

LAXIAD8

VX doesn't have any more EWR slots. Even if they change to flat bed, it's only 3x daily to each, which is no threat.

B6 has Mint plans out of BOS. I'd bet EWR would be much lower priority.

tuolumne

I think UA itself is going to play this by however the cookie crumbles. Nothing is set in stone.

physioprof

I am not seeing why lie-flat is desirable on transcons, other than on Eastbound red-eyes amd Westbound super-early-AM flights.

eponymous_coward

Many of those connections are quite possible/just as feasible at EWR, which gets plenty of TATL coverage.

And, again, B6 isn't part of the *A TATL JV. Can't coordinate schedules. It will just be interlining or codesharing. And LH flies to BOS and PHL...

tuolumne

Because it entails a certain hard product standard. non-lie flats mean no 15.4" AVOD, power seat adjustments, etc. I don't know of any airlines or seat manufactures with barcas that offer those features in 2015. Plus the airlines can then offer the service as equivalent to international business class. And since it IS important on the redeye/early morning flights, well, there goes a significant portion of the daily transcon schedules. So lie flats it is.

physioprof

That makes sense. Thanks!

e53nyc

Exactly my point. United has no competition and will back away from premium investment in the EWR-SFO/LAX market. Get it while you can, because the PS planes will be gone from this route in a matter of a year or two.