Kacee

The 345 was the only aircraft with that range, and it operated under a significant payload restriction.

samuel881

First statement is true, second one is not.

The eventual 289-seat (?) configuration that AA will have on their 77E is to have 37-38J. PMCO 77E has 50J. The chance of not clearing is much higher on AA. AA Executive Platinums are frequently reporting failure to clear their SWU on popular routes like DFW-HKG.

On 788, AA has 28J versus 36J on UA.

andrewwm

Do you have data that backs up a difference in clearance rates of GPUs vs. eVIPs on same/similar routes?

EWR764

Just a bit of tongue-in-cheek...

Consensus seemed to be $1.44 EPS. It just depends on whose estimate you are using.

airplanegod

Got to hand it to United, while 10-abreast might not be comfortable of POS/taller individuals, at least they are throwing 777's in the domestic lineup, something different besides RJ's and slimline 737's/A320's. I also appreciate pulling off 757's from Trans-Atlantic flights, putting them on Latin America/South America/domestic routes, and throwing 767-300's at them. The 777-300ER's should be interesting as well.

transportbiz

So, an actual EPS of $1.32, (special items must be included, there are real) would appear to be a miss by 12 cents???

mduell

77L too, with less restrictions.

samuel881

I think most of airline-related EPS estimates are PTI ex-specials ?

transportbiz

The estimates are, but the actual compared to the estimate seems to be dependent on who's doing the reporting?

samuel881

If the estimates are based on PTI ex-specials, then you should be comparing actual PTI ex-specials to those estimates, not the post-specials numbers.

Some media might be comparing apples to oranges. I'd stick to larger outlets such as CNBC or Bloomberg for accurate comparisons.

transportbiz

This is my thought as well, but explains the lack of consistency in stories, and quotes...

REPUBLIC757

I'm actually shocked they are switching up 787 orders for 773s. I would figure the 10 773s would be addition to the 787 orders. Anyone else feel this is a short sighted move?

The rumors of the 763s sticking around and in the new configuration is the best news, IMHO.

And the 777s coming back to domestic? What are they planning on doing with these? I hope to God they don't rip out the new AVOD systems for the dumpy streaming service on these birds. That would be tragic, but knowing this management team I wouldn't put it past them. Hopefully these 777s can offset the ridiculous frequencies on EWR/ORD-SFO and get more mainline to neglected second tier cities to some of the hubs.

What I think is too good to be true:

--Moving TATL 757s to domestic. Yeah, OK maybe they could free up 6-8 planes from the upgauging to Germany and Spain from EWR. But that still going to do nothing in the grand scheme of things unless they get more aggressive and cut British Isle routes as well.

--10-20 random frames from a foreign airline is vague news. They probably aren't even anywhere close to getting these planes, it's just smoke and mirrors.

--No reports of ETOPS 757s sticking around (sUA). Very disappointing. A wasted opportunity.

spin88

Ah, this is what I spotted as well. As you and I have civilly discussed and appear to reasonably agree ^ the real tell will be how United does in PRASM with growing capacity. I think its good to start with DL, who is UAs direct competitor (I’ll let someone like FWAAA discuss AA's results), and look at both guidance (for 2Q) and 1Q performance.

United’s total revenue fell 1% (delta’s grew by 5%!)
ASM was +.1% (basically flat), consolidated PRASM was +.4%
Domestically UAL’s ASM fell (1.2%) with a resulting PRASM increase of 2.3% (this is not impacted by currency issues so can be compared to what DL did domestically, which was +2.1% PRASM on +7% ASM).

IMHO, UA yet again (as it has done for three years) shunk domestically which has supported its PRASM (here leading to an increase). Delta increased capacity and also PRASM. I think you could ask 100 people in the airline business which result they would rather have, and 100% would say DLs results were better domestically.

As I have said on the earlier thread, Internationally, UA did better, but I think this has more to do with the currency impacts being different while DL is reworking its network ex-SEA which takes time. I just can’t say how well DL did w/o them breaking out the currency issues from just their international business. My guess though given DL’s comment on their call last week that “ Our Seattle expansion is performing well, with domestic unit revenues up 2% on 55% higher capacity” is that SEA’s performance internationally is not a stand-out, otherwise they would have said. However, again it could be currency issues.

UAL’s 2Q 2015 quidence though is ugly. UAL will increase its ASM by 2.25 to 3.25% and will suffer a PRASM fall of (4 to 6%). Expenses, ex-fuel, are projected to go up by a midpoint of .75%. United does not break out the PRASM guidance by domestic vs. international (your post appears to indicate they said (3%) on the call) but its domestic ASM will go up by +1.5 to 2.5%. So as you and I have discussed, the eventual yield/PRASM numbers for UA domestically this quarter will give us a good gauge of their ability to attract/retain high value passengers when they are adding (not reducing) capacity. That appears to be domestic ASM midpoint of +2%, with PRASM fall of (3%), not good.

Delta’s guidance though was much better than UALs, as taken from their call:

“Now looking forward to the June quarter, we are forecasting total revenues to increase about 2%, with RASM down 2% to 4% on 3% higher capacity. About 3 points of that RASM decline is attributable to currency and international surcharge declines. It's also important to note that we are lapping a very strong Q2 2014 performance in which we grew system RASM at 6%, which is the toughest comp we'll face this year.”

“Domestically, the demand environment remains stable and we expect unit revenues to be roughly flat this quarter on 3% to 4% more capacity. This is consistent with the performance we saw in March and what we're already seeing in April.”

IMHO if with a smaller increase in domestic ASMs than DL, UAL they can't best DL in PRASM domestically, it will be some rather good evidence that United continues to loose valuable traffic and is a badly damaged brand. I know UAL is already saying "oil" but that does not explain the magnitude of the change.

On the “we are adding 10-20 used narrowbodies, keeping 11 763s, adding 773ERs, running 772s domestically, and pulling more 50 seaters” part of the release, its all GREAT! This said, I hate to add () to the long time pro-management folks who have all jumped in with a thumbs up, we have been telling you for three years that this was needed!

More generally though, all of these moves suggest that United realizes it has pushed (as many of us have been saying for a long while) the envelope on domestic cuts way too far. Those “cuts” have been keeping PRASM afloat, and United would not be doing what it is doing domestically if it did not know internally that they were doing themselves real damage in the long term. My guess is that the cuts (and small RJs and slimmed/dark A319/320s on long flights) are just killing them with corporate accounts. I also would bet that as elites/HVFers leave the domestic network, they are also not seeing them on all of the new long haul flights on those shiny “game changer” 787s. Again, as others and I have long predicted this would be the outcome of Jeff’s “savvy” plan. To the long time defenders of that "savvy" plan, lets be clear, if UA adds domestic capacity, United will have to attract high paying passengers to fill those seats, or PRASM/yield will fall. I don’t think (short term at least) they can do this with how damaged their brand is at this point. That United will accept the falls in PRASM short term says they must be seeing some real problems in their projections and metrics, and the "savvy" plan advocated by Hunter Keay and ilk has failed.

EWR764

Specials are real, no question, but arise from accounting decisions within the organization and therefore cannot reliably be predicted by analysts... so were they to account for specials, EPS forecasts would essentially be crapshoots.

EWR764

The other thing to keep in mind is that mainline capacity is up yoy and will continue to grow, meanwhile regional (removing 50 seaters) is driving the reduction in ASM in the domestic sector.

The upshot is a domestic network with more of the capacity passengers want (e.g., two-cabin RJ and mainline/widebody) and less of what they don't (small RJ and prop). If one is willing to give Delta latitude and credit for revamping the Pacific operation ex-SEA, I think the same consideration should be given to United in reorganizing domestic capacity to look a bit more like Delta (while DL tries to be more like UA in the Pacific...).