cerealmarketer

Was wondering about the oil exposure - it's been 30 years since we had a meltdown there and no one has more stakes there than UA via IAH.

Similar to IAD during the sequestration.

They must have set expectations at some point - surprised stock is flat on that. Would expect down 5% or so.

Maybe street really wants less capacity growth or some short covering.

fastair

So putting a 777 in the redeye SFO-ORD flights frees up a narrowbody, and they expect that narrowbody to replace a 50 seater? I'd like to see what market will be getting that huge upgauge. (response to 1st question by investors.) Is he implying that a 50 seat market that is express will be going mainline? I think he was reaching on that explanation.

samuel881

A single 364 seat high density 777 can replace two 739s. It's a lot you can do with those 2 planes, and obviously not a 1-to-1 replacement with 50 seat RJs.

Very much a trickle down effect of 777HD->739->738->319->E175->ERJ

riphamilton

to me, this is the most underappreciated element of the whole 77W order speculation (and now confirmation).

no other airline (other than NH?) has more real world data on how the 788/9 actually performs. on paper, the 789 in particular has unparalleled specs.

there's no question that UA got a great deal on the 77W. i don't question that UA can use the extra capacity of a 77W sub-fleet. i do, however, doubt that it was necessary to exchange 787 orders 1:1 in order to get a no-brainer deal, particularly since (i believe) the orders being forfeited are for the 789/10, and not the less impressive 788.

the 763 refresh makes me question this even more. we all knew the 3-class 763 was going away, but the winglet news is the real story here. the 763 is more economical at present because of lower fuel prices, and installing winglets (i wonder if they'll be scimitars) is cheaper than buying dreamliners. UA must have numbers that justify 767 efficiency being in the same ballpark as the 787 - at least for UA's intended use of the planes.

the 2016 delivery of the 77W puts into question whether these birds will even be outfitted with the rumored PIP (link) that will improve efficiency.

i also wonder whether the 77W order has any impact on the A350 order.

LASUA1K

Right now, SFO-ORD has 3 red eye flights, a 11pm, 1130pm and a 12am ish. You put a 777 to fill those 3 flights.

ORD-Midwest should get more mainline. We have already seen ORD-MSN, and ORD-IND return with mainline.

ORD-STL, MSP, DSM, OMA, CVG, CMH, DAY, DTW, BNA, SDF, can all have some mainline frequency, or additional to today. If they are flying 10 more on domestic routes, plus they are purchasing, 10-20 narrowbody this year, ORD, IAH, EWR should see more mainline and less flights. 12 ORD-STL flights can be cut by 2 or 3.

Sulley

BNA is going to start seeing mainline to IAH, ORD, and DEN - all upgauged from 50 seaters.

I would imagine the same is going to happen for similar markets such as JAX, CLT, RDU, STL, MSP, CVG, etc.

drewguy

They have both 777-200 and 777-200ER planes. The Hawaii planes are the non-ER, the pmCO planes are ER, and the international pmUA planes are a mix of the two.

LAX-SYD will, of course, be the ER variant. The non-ER has range only TATL and (maybe) some south america routes.

FWAAA

Not a bad quarter. UA saved a billion dollars in fuel in Q1, and unlike DL, UA actually kept most of the benefit of lower fuel prices (less aggressive hedging = smaller hedging losses).

The only decision with which I would disagree is the extension of the life of the 763s. That's a gamble that fuel prices stay low (or experience just moderate increases) over the next few years, and that gamble appears to be just a little too optimistic for me.

763s are great planes. I love them. They're solid workhorses. But they're the solid workhorses of the last 15 years of the last century, and we're already 15 years into the next.

EWR764

I think it points toward UA trying to reduce/control its capex while not forfeiting capacity at the top of the market while 744s begin retirement, not necessarily disappointment with the 787. UA has already taken all 787-8s on firm order, so it doesn't have any to exchange. I don't think expanding the WB order portfolio by 10 77W frames and taking additional 789s in 2016 would have fit in with UA's capital deployment plan.

fastair

IAH RASM was down 5% while consolidated was up .4%. They put that on oil travel (which obviously has an impact.) Has WN already ramped up their HOU flying as well, or is that still developing?

Longboater

According to the earnings call, most of the 747s will stick around until 2020 when they are up for the next round of D checks. A few will exit over the next few years.

EWR764

Sounds like the 77Ws would be headed to EWR... they "integrate well" with the existing fleet. I would suspect this means they are probably going to be two-cabin airplanes.

sincx

Finally, a 3-4-3 777 comes to UA. Joy of joys.

Get ready for those 16.8" seats in Y.

nerdbirdsjc

Haven't heard of any rumored 77W configs that feature GlobalFirst.

BB2220

If anyone here ever sits in those seats they aren't a real FTer. It's been at least six years since I've sat past row 21. E- is realistically avoidable for the travel experts.