jsloan

“Very rare” is unfair — I get upgraded at or near the window on a significant fraction of my flights; call it 25%.

I think they may be following a pattern that was attributed to them years ago: upgrading people at the window if everyone at that status level could be cleared with N seats remaining, where N is probably 3 at this point.

That said, I do agree that assuming that there are no 1Ks in Y on a transcon because we’re inside the upgrade window is wishful thinking — IMO, it’s more likely that there were too many 1Ks to upgrade them all, rather than not enough 1Ks to notice. (ETA: flight is now booked 38/48 in J, with 45 names on the upgrade list).

Kacee

That is not my experience at all. I haven't gotten an upgrade on a domestic flight prior to T-24 in well over a year. Most of my flights these days are down to J1 or 2 several days prior to departure.

I seem to recall that you select flights, including extra connections, with a focus on upgrade odds so I'm not sure that's a representative experience.
If that's even happening, it's going to be very rare due to the number of 1Ks. Can't recall the last time I had less than 5 1Ks preboard and its usually more.

I regularly see most of GS and 1K preboarding into Y.

RobOnLI

That's not something I have noticed at all. There is no pattern I can identify that says UA will only upgrade if all elites at a particular level will clear. I have definitely cleared CPUs as a 1K and kept track of the names behind me who remained #1-3 (example) on the list and boarded with the 1K group. I'm referencing advanced upgrades, not T-24h upgrades.

That's false according to your own posts. . You posted in this thread in October 2022 about an upgrade on PHX-SFO at the T-94 mark. Reference your post here: CPU Clearance Experiences
But your point that they are relatively few & far between is correct IME.

-RM

fumje

And like a good flyertalker, here I come with a counter-example. A flight was 8/16 in F, and there were two only two 1Ks booked (I know both): one on a medium fare (W) and the other on the cheapest one (G). At the window (T-96h), neither got CPU. At about T-72h, the W fare got upgraded. Then nothing else changed until T-30h, when the G fare got upgraded. At that point there was no one left on the list.

I don't think there is any hard logic about upgrading at the window as a group or not at all.

DELee

Or maybe just bad logic. Period.

David

leftysauce

I would have to agree with jsloan with the clearance rate. Even as a Plat, all 6 segments in the past 2 months where I've gotten CPU on had been cleared near window or before T-24 upgrades.

But I don't think clearing the entire status level with N seats left is right either. I think that it works the same way as PlusPoints/MUA. So if you are within your status' window, RM releases PZ/PN, and J>2/3, your CPU will clear whenever the periodic upgrade sweep is run next. So say if PZ/PN>0 and there are people on the upgrade list at T-60, there should only be Gold and lower (+NRPS/NRSA) left on the list. If at T-96 there are 3 1Ks but only 2 PZs are released by RM, then 1 1K would be left on the waitlist until more PZ is released.

WineCountryUA

This is a common FT discussion trap. There is a tendency to characterize the nearly 5,000 daily flights all with the same few words. All of the above and much more is true but what happens to one person on particular route is a bit irrelevant to another person that has a different experience. The is a distribution outcomes. The best we could talk about is a norm (which we can not determine due to insufficient data) but the one sigma or more is going to have very different experiences, all equally true. Your truth / experience does not negate the others.

Kacee

That may be the most accurate explanation.

Well it seems like at least a year In fact, it feels like forever since I've even been close to a UA upgrade . . . #9 for SFO-PHX tomorrow with 1 seat left.

jsloan

Eh, that’s mostly true when it comes to PlusPoints-supported upgrades. But, I do tend to connect everywhere, and I haven’t been through SFO in about a year. And that definitely makes a difference.

Right — and when I don’t get upgraded, it’s usually the flights that have boatloads of 1Ks. But those are fairly rare for me (again, not in SFO — and honestly, UA seems like it’s almost a different airline when you don’t live in SFO/EWR than when you do).

OK, it seems like my theory has holes then.

Apparently not.

I definitely don’t believe that they use the entirety of the PZ bucket for advance upgrades. It’s quite possible to have PZ>0 even within the relevant window — I know, because I’ve applied instruments to open PZ when I wasn’t going to clear.

Agreed, but I think it’s safe to say that my theory has been disproved. I thought I had noted a pattern between times that I clear in advance and small numbers of 1Ks on the flights, but it seems to have been my imagination — or, at least, not reproducible enough to be useful.

Kacee

Perhaps that is the best explanation for the wide disparities in reported experiences. It may be that the prevalence of remote work from bay area based firms has exacerbated what was already a very difficult upgrade environment pre-covid.

Yep. PZ>0 does not mean UA will run a CPU sweep prior to T-24.

Say Vandelay

IAH-PDX May 31 T-24
PDX-IAD June 2 T-24

MileTrek

ORD-MCO June 4th. 1K on a W fare. App was being buggy so I received a paper boarding pass upon boarding which was better than waiting until I was onboard and having to move seats!

tstauck

5/31 IAD - BTV T-24 , about 5 min after check in
6/3 BTV - DEN T-24 , about 5 min after check in

The BTV - DEN is new for the summer only and a nice CPU for almost a 4 hour flight

So 2 out of 5 as a Gold on that last round of flying.

RobOnLI

Impressed with this one. Booked a new flight for tomrw (T-21h) East Coast -> IAH -> yyy. East Coast to IAH operated by a 7M8 with 6 open up front and 26 on the waitlist. I calculated I'd probably be within top 5 given relatively open E+ seat map even with such a large list (no, not standby). Book the flight and I'm #1 even with #2 & #3 having the same name so assuming they're on supported upgrade of some type. 30 minutes later I'm CPU'd and nobody else is. So either something is wrong with the ticket for #2/#3 or UA is holding back an odd number of upgrades on this flight. It's now J5 and still 26 on the list with only me cleared.

-RM

jsloan

I’m not following. My guess is that #2 and #3 are a couple, one of whom is a Platinum (and neither of whom is 1K/GS). Why would having the same name imply a supported upgrade?