UA-NYC

How did that compare to DL/AA?

spin88

You seem to be missing the point. Here are the yield/PRASM figures for DAL and UAL in 4th Q 2011 and 2013:

United 2011: 15.80 c/mi yield; 12.87 c/mi PRASM; 2013 16.22 yield; 13.36 PRASM

Delta 2011: 16.06 c/mi yield, 13.12 c/mi PRASM, 2013 yield = 17.05, PRASM – 14.97

In 2011 Delta had a 2.6% yield premium, and a 3.8% PRASM premium. In 2013 the yield premium over UAL was at 8.9%, and the PRASM premium was 12%.

That is a massive swing to DELTA (and there was a similar swing to AA), and it should make it a very hard climb for Delta to keep pushing that number up relative to United, which is a direct competitor.

As United stabilizes (and it has, I don’t like what they are offering, but its predictably mediocre at this point) I would expect United to make up some of that lost ground. This is clearly what happened this quarter (although Deltas numbers are actually good considering they had growth while UAL was flat in ASM/RPM).

But the next quarter? Well the guidance suggests that Delta (with much bigger capacity increases than United) may go back to outperforming United. That says a lot about how what United is selling is being perceived in the market.

UAPremierGuy

Here's some CNBC discussion about United's earnings relative to their peers...I LOVE the zinger at the end!

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/unite...161900500.html

WineCountryUA

Saw this live (quite by accident). The other interesting comments related to why UA was down and the rest were up
- weak ROIC
- passagner rev decline / too slow to "adjusting" fleet
- general feeling DL has/was out preforming - UA needs to improve "operations"

and the zinger on WiFi

LaserSailor

Excellent. Even more P fares from which to watch the hapless, slumped shoulder shuffle of upgrade-rejects waddling back to Y....

spin88

The tone of disdain was for UAL as an airline (vs. an investment) was very clear. United has a real problem when this is what they get from the press (and it reflects the current value of the franchise), and it reflects the underlying damage to the brand. Contract renewals this year will be interesting...

This said, since I own a lot of both AAL and DAL, I'm quite happy today!

787fan

It's actually more about DL catching up. DL's network is so short-haul heavy compared to UA that if you look at 2011 numbers and stage length adjust them, DL has both a yield and PRASM deficit against UA.

Absolute numbers of PRASM means NOTHING when the average stage length is so ridiculously different.

And judging from Q3 *GAAP* figures (not that useless $1.6B profit spin), there's nothing crazy good about DL compared to UA.

REPUBLIC757

Ah so I called that one -- keeping the 763s in the fleet until 2020. They had no replacements for the 3-class versions.

And only 2 73G deliveries? The weakest and costliest version of the NG family? Lame. Any info on holding onto the 757s?

IAH-OIL-TRASH

...except for AAL, who apparently does not hedge...

WineCountryUA

While the discussion on aircraft ranges is interesting, let me remind everyone the topic of this thread is Q3'14 financials - so let's stay on topic. If you want to dwell further on the aircraft topic, have created a new thread for that http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unite...uas-fleet.html .

Topic Check - UA's Q3'14 financials.

WineCountryUA
UA coModerator

DL2SXM

umm, UA and all other airlines do the same thing. Just to single out Delta is biased and childish. But, congrats to UA for finally getting things right. I guess that's what happens when you copy enough of what Delta does.

Also, you cant forget that UA is the king of not only delayed and cancelled flights, but the king of nickel and diming. It will eventually get you somewhere with half the legacy competition out there.

also, what cant get lost in the mix is UA's unrestricted liquidity and net debt. Does anyone have those #'s v. what Delta's are? Since so many on here are fanatic about comparing UA to DL, I thought that would be a good metric to compare

Without ancillary services, I wonder where UA would really rank?

United Airlines was the overall leader in ancillary revenue ($5.7 billion), followed by the combined American and US Airways ($3.18 billion) and Delta (2.52 billion).

The top 10 globally were: United Airlines ($5.7 billion),

entropy

Depends on how they view the forward fuel market. Relative to 2010, with the increase in domestic production, the expected fuel prices will be much less than they were projecting. That shifts the economics of buying brand new aircraft in favor of older, slightly less fuel efficient but more capital efficient aircraft.

DL is in a far more favorable position in terms of fleet size, while UA was caught flat-footed. I said before they'd have trouble finding aircraft they actually want to pick up on the cheap. Frankly, the 73G, a far less efficient type than the -800, is a sign of desperation.

The 787 move also means they'll keep the 767s longer. I wouldn't be too surprised if they stretched out the 752 retirements. If I were UA, I'd think long and hard about either pressing Boeing to produce a 73MAX-9LR or go to Airbus for the 321 Neo LR, but those are going to be 8+ years away.

787fan

Again, you're missing the point

UA mentions GAAP post-tax income ex specials as their headline figure, and I believe AA does as well

DL uses Non-GAAP pre-tax income ex specials

anyone can see that those aren't apples to apples, and you can see that DL is choosing the most positive figure in their headline even though it excludes way more items than the industry norm.

The fact that their headline of $1.6B and their true GAAP net inc including specials of $357m is a testament to how much ridiculous fudging they're applying.

But the lazy will just read their headline bullets and think that the $1.6B DL touts is actually comparable to the $1.1B mentioned in UA's headline, and thus incorrectly conclude that DL is doing way better than UA even though the true final metric is really horrible :

GAAP net income (inc specials) :

AA $942m
UA $924m (the result of RJs and unusable-Wifi and flyer-unfriendly and LAX collapse and SEA surrender and HVF exodus and crushed nuts ...)
DL $357m (the result of the refinery and "winning NYC" and WiFi-everywhere and mainline-everywhere and best-in-industry on-time and completion rates and stealing HVFs)

tuolumne

Although the I'm hardly a supporter of Smisek, these results still put a smile to my face. I only want UAL and all of its employees, who've been to hell and back for this airline, to do well. ^

I only hope they'll upgrade the entire cabin to whatever next gen C product they have in the works (or keep the same pmUA C seats)...the current 2-class 763/4 seats are ridiculously short, like really short. Not something I'd ever pay for.

gengar

The lack of CASM improvement is incredibly frustrating. What is the justification for all the product/service/amenity cuts then?