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United narrows Q3 PRASM Guidance - analyst expects them to lead Q4 PRASM growth

United narrows Q3 PRASM Guidance - analyst expects them to lead Q4 PRASM growth

Old Oct 9, 2014, 2:58 pm
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United narrows Q3 PRASM Guidance - analyst expects them to lead Q4 PRASM growth

Was wondering why UAL was up when the market was down 335 points today.

United raised its third quarter passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) guidance, one of the airline industries most important metrics, to a range of 3.5% to 4% from its previous guidance of between 2% and 4%.

"The fact that United has had a history of disappointing on PRASM gave us hesitation to fully endorse their turnaround last quarter. With two strong back to back quarters, our nervousness has eased. We expect United to lead the network carriers in PRASM growth in 4Q14. United is also the only network carrier to raise 3Q14 guidance into earnings season," said Cowen analysts.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/12909...o&cm_ven=YAHOO
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Old Oct 9, 2014, 3:14 pm
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Originally Posted by HNLbasedFlyer
Was wondering why UAL was up when the market was down 335 points today.

United raised its third quarter passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) guidance, one of the airline industries most important metrics, to a range of 3.5% to 4% from its previous guidance of between 2% and 4%.

"The fact that United has had a history of disappointing on PRASM gave us hesitation to fully endorse their turnaround last quarter. With two strong back to back quarters, our nervousness has eased. We expect United to lead the network carriers in PRASM growth in 4Q14. United is also the only network carrier to raise 3Q14 guidance into earnings season," said Cowen analysts.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/12909...o&cm_ven=YAHOO
i'm guessing my divorce had somethign to do with this. jeffy got his way, he lost an unprofitable customer. i have 6 more UA flights booked for the year and that's it. (versus normally i'd have about 30 segments)
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Old Oct 9, 2014, 3:21 pm
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Originally Posted by iflyuaaa
i'm guessing my divorce had somethign to do with this. jeffy got his way, he lost an unprofitable customer. i have 6 more UA flights booked for the year and that's it. (versus normally i'd have about 30 segments)
Are you saying you were a low PRASM flyer, and UA will improve by you leaving?

Do you think your new airline of choice will embrace and reward your low PRASM habits? (if they do, please let us know! )
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Old Oct 9, 2014, 3:38 pm
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Do you think your new airline of choice will embrace and reward your low PRASM habits? (if they do, please let us know! )
I'm pretty sure most airlines appreciate additional revenue, even if its not top dollar, unless the flights you are on are overbooked.

I've got a big goose egg in terms of future scheduled flights on UA this year.
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Old Oct 9, 2014, 3:39 pm
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If UA does indeed show improvement, it makes some of their past excuses really seem poor. I mean, they will have faced the Chicago ATC muck-up among several other issues, things which in the past would have been tossed out as excuses for poor performance.
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Old Oct 9, 2014, 3:49 pm
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Originally Posted by entropy
I'm pretty sure most airlines appreciate additional revenue, even if its not top dollar, unless the flights you are on are overbooked.

I've got a big goose egg in terms of future scheduled flights on UA this year.
Another former flyer assisting in UA's PRASM improvement!

Again, if you maintain your habits (whatever they are), and another airline treats you better and gets you where you need to go efficiently enough, then switching to that airline is a 'no-brainer'.
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Old Oct 9, 2014, 5:31 pm
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Smile Good news

This is good news!!!! Except for the Flyertalk crowd that never has anything positive to say. The airline is on the way back and that is good news!!
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Old Oct 9, 2014, 5:35 pm
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Originally Posted by exerda
If UA does indeed show improvement, it makes some of their past excuses really seem poor. I mean, they will have faced the Chicago ATC muck-up among several other issues, things which in the past would have been tossed out as excuses for poor performance.
Won't the Chicago issue increase PRASM, because the plans are flying full?
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Old Oct 9, 2014, 5:47 pm
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Originally Posted by trk1
This is good news!!!! Except for the Flyertalk crowd that never has anything positive to say. The airline is on the way back and that is good news!!
Compared to what? AA? DL? I wouldn't go that far
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Old Oct 9, 2014, 5:56 pm
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Originally Posted by trk1
This is good news!!!! Except for the Flyertalk crowd that never has anything positive to say. The airline is on the way back and that is good news!!
I would say more so successful in charting a new path, rather than on its way back to what would even resemble the (arguably) better airline(s) we had before.
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Old Oct 9, 2014, 6:00 pm
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Originally Posted by trk1
This is good news!!!! Except for the Flyertalk crowd that never has anything positive to say. The airline is on the way back and that is good news!!
It's easy to have a good increase when you have low comps to start from.

Store 1 sells $10M in Year 1, and has a 10% increase in Year 2, now selling $11M

Store 2 sells $20M in Year 1, and has an 8% increase in Year 2, now selling $21.6M

Which store is better?
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Old Oct 9, 2014, 6:51 pm
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Originally Posted by channa
It's easy to have a good increase when you have low comps to start from.

Store 1 sells $10M in Year 1, and has a 10% increase in Year 2, now selling $11M

Store 2 sells $20M in Year 1, and has an 8% increase in Year 2, now selling $21.6M

Which store is better?
The one with the better passenger, I mean customer, management software? Just a guess on my part.
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Old Oct 9, 2014, 6:57 pm
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I'm neither a UA apologist or a defender. I hold no UA stock and never plan to. I'm just a guy who fly's them often for business and spends ~$30k/year. Those of you who know me can vouch for that; I praise when it's deserved and call them out for the same reasons.

That said, I'm genuinely AMAZED at how people crap on them when they release bad news and crap on them when they actually release some good news. Why is it so personal for some people? What's with the schadenfreude? They could hire Jean Georges to personally prepare the food in Y mid-air and people would still find something to complain about. It's just an airline... Jeez.

Last edited by BigPoppaCO; Oct 9, 2014 at 7:03 pm
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Old Oct 9, 2014, 7:10 pm
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That said, I'm genuinely AMAZED at how people crap on them when they release bad news and crap on them when they actually release some good news. Why is it so personal for some people? What's with the schadenfreude? They could hire Jean Georges to personally prepare the food in Y mid-air and people would still find something to complain about. It's just an airline... Jeez.
where's the "good" news? they upped the lower end of the guidance, not the upper end. 4% increase over the pathetic comp from last year doesn't put them closer to DL.

They've gotten hammered in the last few weeks despite the cheapest oil in years.
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Old Oct 9, 2014, 7:36 pm
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Originally Posted by exerda
If UA does indeed show improvement, it makes some of their past excuses really seem poor. I mean, they will have faced the Chicago ATC muck-up among several other issues, things which in the past would have been tossed out as excuses for poor performance.
Explanations (or, in your words, excuses) are not classified as "poor" because they're dismissed by FlyerTalk. United underperformed in the past and provided reasons for that underperformance. The trend appears to be changing, and it looks like the haters keep on hating.

Originally Posted by channa
It's easy to have a good increase when you have low comps to start from.

Store 1 sells $10M in Year 1, and has a 10% increase in Year 2, now selling $11M

Store 2 sells $20M in Year 1, and has an 8% increase in Year 2, now selling $21.6M

Which store is better?
You seem to be implying that UAL started from lower comps, which they did not. They actually started at higher end of the PRASM-scale post-merger (and Delta towards the lower), which explains part of the difference in month-over-month and year-over-year trends.

Originally Posted by entropy
where's the "good" news? they upped the lower end of the guidance, not the upper end. 4% increase over the pathetic comp from last year doesn't put them closer to DL.

They've gotten hammered in the last few weeks despite the cheapest oil in years.
Delta had PRASM of 14.48 in 3Q13 and expects 2-3% growth in 3Q14.
UAL had PRASM of 13.71 in 3Q13 and expects 3.5-4% growth in 3Q14.

It looks like the non-stage length adjusted numbers are closer. Stage length adjustments would be even more interesting as UAL's stage length is increasing while DAL's is declining.

In case you haven't heard, there's this thing called Ebola that's hammering airline stocks...
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