Last edit by: mkr
UAL
earnings released: Thursday, July 24,2014 9:30 am CST/10:30 EST
If you missed the live webcast of the 2nd Q earnings conference call, it is now available for replay for a limited time and will later be archived.
A transcript is now available also.
Click this link for access to replay and transcript of call:
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/23227909-post151.html
Current 2Q 2014 UAL guidance (4/24/14 investor update):
PRASM +1-3%
ASM "quarter, flat to +1%, full year +.5 to 1.5%"
CASM ex fuel, "quarter +1.25 to 2.25%, full year +1-2%"
Analyst guidance/actual 2Q 2013 results:
6/5/14 estimates:
1.86/share (using the 367M shares from last release $682M profit ex special items) [2q 2013 actual was $521M; $1.35/share ex specials; $469M GAAP]
Revenue 10.33B (3.3% growth) [2q 2013 was $10B]
Actual results:
- $789m GAAP Net income, $2.34/share. 7.6% margin
- $919m Net Income (excluding specials) or $1.04 per share. 8.9% margin
- $906m Operating Income (8.8% margin)
- $1.08B Operating Income excluding specials (10.4% margin)
- PRASM up 3.7%, yield up 3.0%; domestic yield +6.8%
- ASM -0.1%
- CASM-Ex fuel, profit sharing and special items down 0.2%
- Operating Revenue: $10.33B (up 3.3%); Passenger Revenue $8.98B( up3.6%)
- $1.5B in operating cash flow
Links to UA Press Releases / News Articles / etc.:
DAL
earnings released: Wednesday July 23 at 10 edt. Call link: https://event.on24.com/eventRegistra...epage=register
Actual results:
- $801m GAAP Net income, $0.94/diluted share. 7.5% margin
- $889m Net Income (excluding specials) or $1.04 per share. 8.4% margin
Delta's pre-tax income, ex special items was $1.4 billion.
- $1.58B Operating Income (14.9% margin)
- $1.61B Operating Income excluding specials (15.1% margin)
- PRASM up 5.7%, yield up 3.8%; domestic yield +7.4%
- ASM +3.2%
- CASM-Ex fuel, profit sharing and special items was FLAT
- Operating Revenue: $10.62B (up 9%); Passenger Revenue $9.27B ( up9%)
- Over $2.0B in operating cash flow and $1.5B in free cash, net debt $7.9B
3Q projections: Operating margin +15 to +17%, CASM +0 to 2%, "unit revenues" (I take to be PRASM - spin) +2-4% "driven by continued corporate and domestic strength, along with benefits from our revenue initiatives."
Links to DL Press Releases / News Articles / etc.:
http://news.delta.com/2014-07-23-Del...Quarter-Profit
AAL - earnings call: July 24, 2014 at 12:30 cdt
link to call: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix....estorrelations
Estimates/AAL guidance:
2Q PRASM +5-7% (updated estimate from 6/9/14 traffic release). YTD ASM +2.5%.
Actual results:
- $864m GAAP Net income
- $1.5B Net Income (excluding specials)
- $11.4B Revenue (+10.2%)
- Yeld +6.5% (17.34)
- PRASM up 5.9%, (14.57)
- ASM +3.1%
- CASM +3.9% (13.61)
earnings released: Thursday, July 24,2014 9:30 am CST/10:30 EST
If you missed the live webcast of the 2nd Q earnings conference call, it is now available for replay for a limited time and will later be archived.
A transcript is now available also.
Click this link for access to replay and transcript of call:
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/23227909-post151.html
Current 2Q 2014 UAL guidance (4/24/14 investor update):
PRASM +1-3%
ASM "quarter, flat to +1%, full year +.5 to 1.5%"
CASM ex fuel, "quarter +1.25 to 2.25%, full year +1-2%"
Analyst guidance/actual 2Q 2013 results:
6/5/14 estimates:
1.86/share (using the 367M shares from last release $682M profit ex special items) [2q 2013 actual was $521M; $1.35/share ex specials; $469M GAAP]
Revenue 10.33B (3.3% growth) [2q 2013 was $10B]
Actual results:
- $789m GAAP Net income, $2.34/share. 7.6% margin
- $919m Net Income (excluding specials) or $1.04 per share. 8.9% margin
- $906m Operating Income (8.8% margin)
- $1.08B Operating Income excluding specials (10.4% margin)
- PRASM up 3.7%, yield up 3.0%; domestic yield +6.8%
- ASM -0.1%
- CASM-Ex fuel, profit sharing and special items down 0.2%
- Operating Revenue: $10.33B (up 3.3%); Passenger Revenue $8.98B( up3.6%)
- $1.5B in operating cash flow
Links to UA Press Releases / News Articles / etc.:
UA Deutsche Bank Presentation PDF
WSJ Article: United Continental: One Sick Bird - related FT thread on WSJ's One Sick Bird article.
May 2014 UA Traffic Reporting Discussion Thread
Q1 2014 Investor Conference Call FT Discussion Thread
United Continental Is Underestimating the Threat From Delta Air Lines @ The Motley Fool - related FT Discussion Thread
United Should Close Dulles Hub, Analyst Says, as He Cuts Rating - FT Discussion Thread
WSJ Article: United Continental: One Sick Bird - related FT thread on WSJ's One Sick Bird article.
May 2014 UA Traffic Reporting Discussion Thread
Q1 2014 Investor Conference Call FT Discussion Thread
United Continental Is Underestimating the Threat From Delta Air Lines @ The Motley Fool - related FT Discussion Thread
United Should Close Dulles Hub, Analyst Says, as He Cuts Rating - FT Discussion Thread
DAL
earnings released: Wednesday July 23 at 10 edt. Call link: https://event.on24.com/eventRegistra...epage=register
Actual results:
- $801m GAAP Net income, $0.94/diluted share. 7.5% margin
- $889m Net Income (excluding specials) or $1.04 per share. 8.4% margin
Delta's pre-tax income, ex special items was $1.4 billion.
- $1.58B Operating Income (14.9% margin)
- $1.61B Operating Income excluding specials (15.1% margin)
- PRASM up 5.7%, yield up 3.8%; domestic yield +7.4%
- ASM +3.2%
- CASM-Ex fuel, profit sharing and special items was FLAT
- Operating Revenue: $10.62B (up 9%); Passenger Revenue $9.27B ( up9%)
- Over $2.0B in operating cash flow and $1.5B in free cash, net debt $7.9B
3Q projections: Operating margin +15 to +17%, CASM +0 to 2%, "unit revenues" (I take to be PRASM - spin) +2-4% "driven by continued corporate and domestic strength, along with benefits from our revenue initiatives."
Links to DL Press Releases / News Articles / etc.:
http://news.delta.com/2014-07-23-Del...Quarter-Profit
AAL - earnings call: July 24, 2014 at 12:30 cdt
link to call: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix....estorrelations
Estimates/AAL guidance:
2Q PRASM +5-7% (updated estimate from 6/9/14 traffic release). YTD ASM +2.5%.
Actual results:
- $864m GAAP Net income
- $1.5B Net Income (excluding specials)
- $11.4B Revenue (+10.2%)
- Yeld +6.5% (17.34)
- PRASM up 5.9%, (14.57)
- ASM +3.1%
- CASM +3.9% (13.61)
UAL 2Q 2014 Results/Discussion/News → Results Announced July 24th, 2014 ←
#46
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 57,583
Not until 2020. Instead, they are buying 10 A330-300's which will be on the property 2015-2017. From SEA, they can reach Japan, Korea, the Philippines and China. And, I'll wager, those aircraft will have a much better dispatch rate than UA's 787s.
Last edited by halls120; Jun 4, 2014 at 6:37 pm
#47
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,361
Hmmm? How did you read "everyone else" into that sentence? Of course I was speaking about the person who made the comment, and then the inference including all other Exec UAL Management who supported the SHARES decision. Did you take that personally, leading me to believe you are "One Of Them"?
For a few more specifics, you can go to my post #195 in the "You Just Got Smiseked" thread. There's much more to know than what is posted there, but you should be able to fill in the blanks.
For a few more specifics, you can go to my post #195 in the "You Just Got Smiseked" thread. There's much more to know than what is posted there, but you should be able to fill in the blanks.
#48
Ambassador: Alaska Airlines
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: BWI
Posts: 7,390
The only bad thing about DL's Asia strategy [IMHO] is that they are working slowly to dehub NRT [rumored to be their most profitable hub and they have a strong FF base there]. They think that having a west coast Asian gateway instead of a hub in Asia is a better strategy and I digress.
The only problem with the de-hubbing NRT strategy is once you end a NRT-Asian City route, you most likely can't get it back.
#49
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: 2012 Plat-2013 Plat-2014 Silver-2015 GM
Posts: 818
I'll leave you with this, What did pmUA (not new UA because that's a CF) and now DL have in common?
I'll give you a hint, it has to do with Host/Off-Host, Development rights and Who, new Software Loads, Maintenance and Outages.
#50
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Since the BoSox and ChiSox won it, now it is the Cubs turn to take the Series. Go Cubs Go!
Posts: 3,685
Here is the United Deustche Bank presentation. http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External...R5cGU9MQ==&t=1
#51
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: New York, NY
Programs: UA, AA, DL, Hertz, Avis, National, Hyatt, Hilton, SPG, Marriott
Posts: 9,451
Fascinating that .7" is precisely the margin to avoid such horrors...
#52
Join Date: May 2005
Programs: Million Miler, 1K - Basically spend a lot of time on planes
Posts: 2,202
Here is the United Deustche Bank presentation. http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External...R5cGU9MQ==&t=1
#53
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: ORD-LAS
Programs: UA MM 1K, Hyatt Globalist, Marriott Titanium Elite
Posts: 4,419
#54
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: San Francisco Bay Area
Posts: 5,825
DL has 21 333's in service, plus 11 332's, so clearly they know the plane well.
I think DL's CEO has said 'I'll take a last generation proven and reliable plane over a new and uproven plane.'
#55
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,324
Hmm
The 3-Class 763 is archaic. The cabin is archaic. I'm not as obsessed about the extra inch when I have something to do other than look at the blank space on the seat in front of me. It's 2014, and "The world's leading airline" should offer a better economy product than what they have on those planes. I'd take any other capable United aircraft (other than the 744) in economy over that 763. Never mind every single capable DL aircraft.
#56
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Chicago
Programs: AA EXP, UA former 1K (1.9MM and gone), Marriott LT Plat, Hilton Diamond, SPG Plat
Posts: 1,111
Myself and most of my colleagues rather like the IPTE 767s....the first class is great, business is rather good, and the economy seats are extremely comfortable. I think we need to realize that the priorities of some people vary, and while you may judge this entire plane archaic because of small overhead bins, and a small looped television screen, others won't. The Y seats on the 3-class 767 are actually the most comfortable ones in the fleet, based on padding, width, headrest, etc. I always choose the 763 on my flights to Europe when possible.
#57
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: BOS
Programs: riding the lifetime status. DL MM / AA MM
Posts: 2,968
the IP situations are similar. if you believe SHARES is a viable platform, you'd be an idiot to say anything different from what i heard on the call. and from the TONE of jeff's voice on that call, he clearly believes SHARES is a viable platform. zero question about that. difference of opinion on the viability of SHARES will drive comments on your question.
#58
Join Date: Feb 2008
Programs: 6 year GS, now 2MM Jeff-ugee, *wood LTPlt, SkyPeso PLT
Posts: 6,526
I listened to Jeff and John Rainy at the DB conference, and its clear they are totally out of touch. Its all puff, but still revealing. Call can be listened to here: http://www.media-server.com/m/p/7pvt2ojy
A few rough transcriptions:
Jeff: “this industry is consolidating, makes us stronger” This makes us an industrials company. Old management was focused on market share, “our goal is to grow below GDP”
Jeff: “What are we doing to improve our revenue?” “network” “restructuring our network, transferring passengers to ANA” “maintaining for reliability” “moving equipment to more profitable routes” “eliminate CLE” “we were taking too many bookings too early in the booking cycle, adjusted that, are seeing very good returns on that” Restructing front cabin fares (cheaper) to sell more paid F seats. “more upsells, dynamic pricing” “thoughtful investment in our fleet”
[The lack of any understanding of the push/pull factors impacting HVFers was just stunning. Jeff sees revenue as putting the right planes on the right routes and people will just flock to UAL. No discussion or mention of retaining customers, let alone winning them back.]
Jeff said that PMCO 50 seaters were not “customer pleasing” and were a “completive disadvantage” Mentioned adding 76 seaters.
Jeff said the new 739ERs were “better product” 787 is “magnificent airplane” and “customer pleasing”
“we are excited by the $2B in savings from Project Quality by 2017” Claimed savings of $500M this year.
Goal is “increase earnings 2-4x, increasing earnings each quarter moving forward.”
Q1: “you got deals with pilots/rampers, when will you be done with labor issues?” Jeff said there was a change in Union Leadership on the sUA side, and expects progress with new leadership on the F/A and Tech Opp side.
Q2: “ME carriers adding lots of flights” Jeff blamed the government for his problems.
Q4: “your guidance is +1-3% PRASM, we have seen other carriers of +6-7%, seems like things at UAL might be better than guidance, it feels conservative” Rainy “we are facing pressure in Asia, its why we discussed domestic on the 1Q 2014 call, which is more comparable, we are not satisfied with our performance, these things take time.” “we recognize where our relative performance, and will improve it”
[This was about when the stock tanked. UAL is sticking with its PRASM guidence of +1-3%, which means they are trailing DAL by at about 5%. This is really bad, and the call for "more time" suggests the under-performance will continue.]
Q5: Jeff “we own SHARES, its smart that DAL copied us”
Q_ “on the revenue side, can you talk about how United’s outlook is for the rest of the year? How do you view DAL’s growth in SEA as a threat”
Jeff: “our friends in ATL lack a gateway, LAX is fragmented, it’s a hub for no one, its why they are trying to create SEA” “the pressure on PRASM is in China due to more capacity, best way to compete is to have a good operation, and we have enormous focus on our customer service, candidly our predecessor company in Chicago put inadequate investment in its employees, and we are putting enormous investment in training them, they want to provide good service and we are giving them the tools”
Rainy: “a lot is made of the top line numbers, but China is one of our strongest markets, and we have a broad network, and we can move airplanes to match needs.”
[This question was from the audience, and that it again asked about revenue outlook says the earlier non-answer was not enough. That Jeff and Rainy both dodged the question says it all. They have no plan, and will continue to underperform the industry badly]
A few rough transcriptions:
Jeff: “this industry is consolidating, makes us stronger” This makes us an industrials company. Old management was focused on market share, “our goal is to grow below GDP”
Jeff: “What are we doing to improve our revenue?” “network” “restructuring our network, transferring passengers to ANA” “maintaining for reliability” “moving equipment to more profitable routes” “eliminate CLE” “we were taking too many bookings too early in the booking cycle, adjusted that, are seeing very good returns on that” Restructing front cabin fares (cheaper) to sell more paid F seats. “more upsells, dynamic pricing” “thoughtful investment in our fleet”
[The lack of any understanding of the push/pull factors impacting HVFers was just stunning. Jeff sees revenue as putting the right planes on the right routes and people will just flock to UAL. No discussion or mention of retaining customers, let alone winning them back.]
Jeff said that PMCO 50 seaters were not “customer pleasing” and were a “completive disadvantage” Mentioned adding 76 seaters.
Jeff said the new 739ERs were “better product” 787 is “magnificent airplane” and “customer pleasing”
“we are excited by the $2B in savings from Project Quality by 2017” Claimed savings of $500M this year.
Goal is “increase earnings 2-4x, increasing earnings each quarter moving forward.”
Q1: “you got deals with pilots/rampers, when will you be done with labor issues?” Jeff said there was a change in Union Leadership on the sUA side, and expects progress with new leadership on the F/A and Tech Opp side.
Q2: “ME carriers adding lots of flights” Jeff blamed the government for his problems.
Q4: “your guidance is +1-3% PRASM, we have seen other carriers of +6-7%, seems like things at UAL might be better than guidance, it feels conservative” Rainy “we are facing pressure in Asia, its why we discussed domestic on the 1Q 2014 call, which is more comparable, we are not satisfied with our performance, these things take time.” “we recognize where our relative performance, and will improve it”
[This was about when the stock tanked. UAL is sticking with its PRASM guidence of +1-3%, which means they are trailing DAL by at about 5%. This is really bad, and the call for "more time" suggests the under-performance will continue.]
Q5: Jeff “we own SHARES, its smart that DAL copied us”
Q_ “on the revenue side, can you talk about how United’s outlook is for the rest of the year? How do you view DAL’s growth in SEA as a threat”
Jeff: “our friends in ATL lack a gateway, LAX is fragmented, it’s a hub for no one, its why they are trying to create SEA” “the pressure on PRASM is in China due to more capacity, best way to compete is to have a good operation, and we have enormous focus on our customer service, candidly our predecessor company in Chicago put inadequate investment in its employees, and we are putting enormous investment in training them, they want to provide good service and we are giving them the tools”
Rainy: “a lot is made of the top line numbers, but China is one of our strongest markets, and we have a broad network, and we can move airplanes to match needs.”
[This question was from the audience, and that it again asked about revenue outlook says the earlier non-answer was not enough. That Jeff and Rainy both dodged the question says it all. They have no plan, and will continue to underperform the industry badly]
#60
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Silicon wasteland
Programs: UA 1KMM
Posts: 1,381
Two observations, if this transcription is true...
Which came first -- transferring pax to ANA, or the pressure in Asia? Explain to me how the former is not directly resulting in the latter.
I would like fastair (or other friendly pmUAer) to comment on this.
1. Were you really un-invested in (other than, say, in salary!) as a pmUAer?
2. Did you feel that, as a pmUAer, that you didn't have the tools to do your job sucessfully?
3. Do you honestly feel today you have the tools in front of you to do your job sucessfully?
Jeff: “What are we doing to improve our revenue?” “network” “restructuring our network, transferring passengers to ANA”
...
Q4: “your guidance is +1-3% PRASM, we have seen other carriers of +6-7%, seems like things at UAL might be better than guidance, it feels conservative” Rainy “we are facing pressure in Asia, its why we discussed domestic on the 1Q 2014 call, which is more comparable, we are not satisfied with our performance, these things take time.” “we recognize where our relative performance, and will improve it”
...
Q4: “your guidance is +1-3% PRASM, we have seen other carriers of +6-7%, seems like things at UAL might be better than guidance, it feels conservative” Rainy “we are facing pressure in Asia, its why we discussed domestic on the 1Q 2014 call, which is more comparable, we are not satisfied with our performance, these things take time.” “we recognize where our relative performance, and will improve it”
best way to compete is to have a good operation, and we have enormous focus on our customer service, candidly our predecessor company in Chicago put inadequate investment in its employees, and we are putting enormous investment in training them, they want to provide good service and we are giving them the tools”
1. Were you really un-invested in (other than, say, in salary!) as a pmUAer?
2. Did you feel that, as a pmUAer, that you didn't have the tools to do your job sucessfully?
3. Do you honestly feel today you have the tools in front of you to do your job sucessfully?