Why is UA lagging in cargo & what impact will it have on 2014?
#1
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Why is UA lagging in cargo & what impact will it have on 2014?
There's always a ton of talk around here about the flyer experience (naturally), but one area I haven't seen a lot of talk about is UA's cargo operations. While air cargo has been suffering in general, UA's cargo unit has plummeted since the merger. Last quarter, cargo revenue dropped 19.1% to only $199M.
Compared to DL and AA, UA is underperforming either carrier by 10%+ year-over-year, and has lost more in terms of absolute dollars than DL and AA combined. More than $113M shed YTD, against 2012.
This is more than just a random number... With UA trying to cut $2B in costs, shedding 9-figures worth of highly-profitable revenue can have serious effects (margins on cargo are 50%+, since it's just added-on to the passenger routes). At the same time, many of the cuts to Asia routes may be choking off cargo feed, with cargo revenue apparently not included in the TPAC JV with ANA.
Further, it seems like this number may be harder to turn around... Shipping industry analysts are only predicting global ~2% growth in air cargo in 2014, mostly to be sucked-up by middle-eastern carriers, and AA's cargo strategy seems to be leaving it the only North American carrier growing contracts at a significant rate. (~+17% vs 2012, according to this article.)
So given that boxes of freight don't complain about devalued miles or rip-off club beers, why would UA be struggling so badly in this area of their operations compared to the competition? And will UA passengers have to swallow further cuts than even the planned $2B if this area of the business continues to shed hundreds of millions of dollars annually? A bottom-line loss of ~$100M this year isn't really something you can soak up with broken cashews and $6 TPAC beers...
Compared to DL and AA, UA is underperforming either carrier by 10%+ year-over-year, and has lost more in terms of absolute dollars than DL and AA combined. More than $113M shed YTD, against 2012.
This is more than just a random number... With UA trying to cut $2B in costs, shedding 9-figures worth of highly-profitable revenue can have serious effects (margins on cargo are 50%+, since it's just added-on to the passenger routes). At the same time, many of the cuts to Asia routes may be choking off cargo feed, with cargo revenue apparently not included in the TPAC JV with ANA.
Further, it seems like this number may be harder to turn around... Shipping industry analysts are only predicting global ~2% growth in air cargo in 2014, mostly to be sucked-up by middle-eastern carriers, and AA's cargo strategy seems to be leaving it the only North American carrier growing contracts at a significant rate. (~+17% vs 2012, according to this article.)
So given that boxes of freight don't complain about devalued miles or rip-off club beers, why would UA be struggling so badly in this area of their operations compared to the competition? And will UA passengers have to swallow further cuts than even the planned $2B if this area of the business continues to shed hundreds of millions of dollars annually? A bottom-line loss of ~$100M this year isn't really something you can soak up with broken cashews and $6 TPAC beers...
#3
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UA essentially got out of the cargo business when the (profitable) pre-merger CO cargo operation was outsourced to match the UA side of the house. At a time when DL and AA are actively seeking to grow their respective cargo operations, UA considers it non-core and, like everything else at this company, is a target of aggressive cost cutting.
#4
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UA essentially got out of the cargo business when the (profitable) pre-merger CO cargo operation was outsourced to match the UA side of the house. At a time when DL and AA are actively seeking to grow their respective cargo operations, UA considers it non-core and, like everything else at this company, is a target of aggressive cost cutting.
What are they filling the holds with, at this point??
#5
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That may be, but what on EARTH would the rationale be? Unless they were doing something really wonky, it's always been my understanding that cargo for passenger carriers was pretty much "free money". Sure, if fuel costs go up, your margin gets squeezed. But 50% (or 40% or 20%) of something is surely better than 100% of nothing??
What are they filling the holds with, at this point??
What are they filling the holds with, at this point??
#7
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Some useful reading on the topic:
http://www.aircargoworld.com/Air-Car...growth/2415348
In 2014, IATA expects a significant improvement in cargo growth to 3.7 percent. But yields for cargo markets are expected to fall by 2.1 percent.
...
The ability of airlines to match cargo capacity to demand is limited by the natural growth in belly capacity that occurs as airlines respond to passenger demand. As a result of this mismatch, cargo yields are expected to fall by 4.9 percent this year.
...
The ability of airlines to match cargo capacity to demand is limited by the natural growth in belly capacity that occurs as airlines respond to passenger demand. As a result of this mismatch, cargo yields are expected to fall by 4.9 percent this year.
http://www.boeing.com/assets/pdf/com...cargo/wacf.pdf - This is in their efforts to sell more all-cargo aircraft.
Averaged over the past two decades, freight yield has declined
4.2% per year. The most recent decade saw a slight yield
increase of 0.9% per year, compared to the 9.0% average annual
decline recorded in the preceding decade
4.2% per year. The most recent decade saw a slight yield
increase of 0.9% per year, compared to the 9.0% average annual
decline recorded in the preceding decade
#9
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In essence, those reports indicate:
* North American airlines are expected to post the strongest performance.
* Long-haul hub-hub Asia-NA routes should have the highest yields
* Yields are down globally, but nowhere near unprofitable territory except for small cargo-only carriers.
... so it would seem that UA should be positioned to take advantage of the most cargo revenue retention among North American passenger carriers given its TPAC network and prevalence of widebody a/c on those routes.
Yet it's getting its clock cleaned by the carrier with the WORST North American TPAC network.
Also, any company that would cut a business line because yield went from 50% to 45% probably needs to have its head examined. Particularly when its core business has a margin of ~2%. There has to be something deeper happening here causing UA to shed cargo contracts.
#10
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With that mix of references, I can't quite tell whether you're agreeing with me, disagreeing with me, or just attempting to add data...
In essence, those reports indicate:
* North American airlines are expected to post the strongest performance.
* Long-haul hub-hub Asia-NA routes should have the highest yields
* Yields are down globally, but nowhere near unprofitable territory except for small cargo-only carriers.
In essence, those reports indicate:
* North American airlines are expected to post the strongest performance.
* Long-haul hub-hub Asia-NA routes should have the highest yields
* Yields are down globally, but nowhere near unprofitable territory except for small cargo-only carriers.
I agree that the operations are not money-losing, but I wouldn't necessarily focus on it as an area where I expect to make a lot of money in UA's position. They can continue to carry cargo where it makes sense within their route network but the dedicated cargo carriers are going to clean up on this well before UA sees huge gains.
I also see comments like this one and question your assertion that anyone is going to do spectacular in the market between N. America and Asia:
The outlook for Asia-Pacific airlines is downgraded largely due to slower growth among the region’s emerging economies. Asia-Pacific carriers are the largest players in global cargo markets and the most affected by its flat performance.
Continuing a trend of many years in the Asia Pacific region, all-cargo and combination carriers will take the greatest number of large freighters, which are uniquely suited to long-haul, intercontinental markets.
#11
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there are a number of items to look at when comparing numbers between each carrier and YOY.
global yield is down, increase in capacity for air cargo is rapidly growing, and it didnt help that UA Cargo went through 2 merger operations of their IT platform in 7 months.
As for UA Cargo not much of a player, quite the contrary, UA is very much in the cargo business.
global yield is down, increase in capacity for air cargo is rapidly growing, and it didnt help that UA Cargo went through 2 merger operations of their IT platform in 7 months.
As for UA Cargo not much of a player, quite the contrary, UA is very much in the cargo business.
#12
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#13
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UA essentially got out of the cargo business when the (profitable) pre-merger CO cargo operation was outsourced to match the UA side of the house. At a time when DL and AA are actively seeking to grow their respective cargo operations, UA considers it non-core and, like everything else at this company, is a target of aggressive cost cutting.
One area where United was particularly strong was the Hawaii-mainland, where UA was able to haul gobs of cargo back and forth. Obviously, its harder to do that when they replaced 767s and 777's with 737s, which lately have had to drop even some self loading freight to make it.
#14
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I often see lots of USPS Mail being loaded onto UA flights. I wonder if that contract is a profit maker? Happy Holidays and Safe Travels
#15
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there are a number of items to look at when comparing numbers between each carrier and YOY.
global yield is down, increase in capacity for air cargo is rapidly growing, and it didnt help that UA Cargo went through 2 merger operations of their IT platform in 7 months.
As for UA Cargo not much of a player, quite the contrary, UA is very much in the cargo business.
global yield is down, increase in capacity for air cargo is rapidly growing, and it didnt help that UA Cargo went through 2 merger operations of their IT platform in 7 months.
As for UA Cargo not much of a player, quite the contrary, UA is very much in the cargo business.
What an inane comment. You can have a full can of soda if you ask.