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Is Ch11 unavoidable for UA next year?

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Old Dec 15, 2013, 9:30 am
  #91  
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Allegiant has TERRIBLE customer service and they are far from bankrupt.
They are the most profitable. Perhaps the 2 are not as simply related.

Originally Posted by fly747first
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/La...-you-surprised

"United Airlines was the worst U.S. airline —and Virgin America was the best — among leading U.S. airlines last year, a report said Monday. Overall, carriers had their second-best score in the more than the two decades since researchers began measuring quality of service."

http://www.dailyfinance.com/on/unite...-toilet-paper/

"In a week that saw United Airlines (UAL) place dead last in a customer service ranking of the major airlines, a picture surfaced that gives some idea of how the airline earned that dubious distinction. A member of travel forum FlyerTalk posted this picture, which he says he snapped in the lavatory of a United Airlines flight."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...n_3038556.html

"United Airlines, whose consumer complaint rate nearly doubled last year, had the worst performance. United has merged with Continental Airlines, but has had rough spots in integrating the operations of the two carriers."

Thus, I maintain my position that UA is an all-time low. Explain to me how the company isn't when being last means that all your competitors are above you and there is no way to get ranked lower.
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Old Dec 15, 2013, 9:36 am
  #92  
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Originally Posted by BearX220
I would say the SFH and 9/11 era, 2000-02, represented the company's al-time low since deregulation. Back then there were serious financial losses, and vicious, debilitating labor fights, and other factors which did lead to bankruptcy. Back then I really did think the airline was going to tear itself apart (just on the basis of SFH, which repelled a very large bloc of HVFs and thereby arguably hastened the airline's post-9/11 decline).
What was SFH?
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Old Dec 15, 2013, 9:45 am
  #93  
 
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Originally Posted by channa
In fairness, PMUA is where a lot of the high-value flyers who defected came from, and without recognizing and understanding some of the gaps between present UA and PMUA, they will not be able to remedy them.
So are "they" recognizing this or just "us"?

If only "us" then kietherson has a point and I agree with his feelings.

A large number of the complaints it seems to me is that United is less PMUA and more PMCO which makes me think "they" aren't adapting this all alleged necessary attitude. So everybody is going to leave United, I mean, nobody is happy with the new PQD requirements, I mean United is headed for chapter 11.
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Old Dec 15, 2013, 10:17 am
  #94  
 
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Originally Posted by cmhua777
Something very unfortunate financially would have to happen for UA to enter CH 11 next year. Bankruptcy is not a tool to address frequent flyer-alienating decisions or redesign cabins. It is a tool to restructure burdensome debt that is keeping the business for being solvent. UA's finances are in order - though trailing its peers - which means no judge would allow a CH 11 filing.
Exactly ^
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Old Dec 15, 2013, 10:25 am
  #95  
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Originally Posted by ffI
What was SFH?
Summer from hell.

Basically a combination of runway/air traffic congestion at ORD, lots of summer thunderstorms and a work-to-rule effort by pilots. It crippled the airline. Relative to that the current UA is doing fantastic.

Originally Posted by BearX220
Sure. The sine wave spans years, though, not quarters. People mooning over the lost excellence of PMUA forget that the airline was a flaming mess back around the turn of the century. Ten or fifteen years from now, who knows? In the long run any comeback is possible. Of course, as John Maynard Keynes said, in the long run, we're all dead... and in the long run UA will have to replace all of us.
:-:
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Old Dec 15, 2013, 10:30 am
  #96  
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Originally Posted by ffI
What was SFH?
Google is your friend.

Summer 2000 -- the "summer from hell" -- a legendary low point in United labor relations, in which front-liners adopted work-to-rule and slowdown tactics to exact concessions from management, throwing untold numbers of passengers under the bus in the process.

http://www.chicagolegalnet.com/cases...s-heavy-tolls/

I'll never forget watching a whole long desk's worth of UA customer service agents at ORD clicking their heels and abandoning their posts en masse one night during a thunderstorm delay, leaving hundreds of stranded passengers in line with no help. People told wild SFH stories for years afterward.

A few years later, when UA did slide into bankruptcy, the employees eventually seemed to realize that abusing the customer base could hurt the company and cost them their jobs... but it took several more years to lure some of those burned customers back. Me, I swore off UA for a long time and went over to NW/CO.
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Old Dec 15, 2013, 11:15 am
  #97  
 
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Originally Posted by fly747first
During the third quarter of 2013, United apparently put a large number of low-yield advance purchase tickets into its reservations system that were snapped up early, leaving insufficient inventory available for close-in purchase of high-yield tickets typically bought by business and other last-minute travelers. The problem actually boosted airplane load factors, but significantly depressed yield.
Or the higher yielding demand for UA declined which caused the RM systems to backfill with lower yielding fares. RM at UA is based on historical data which when not replicated causes adjustments in order to ensure full airplanes.

Originally Posted by fly747first
People get upset at me for being so harsh towards UA's RM poor hiring practices but seriously, when your airline already has the worst products among major U.S. carriers, the least it can do is to hire skilled professionals who know how to forecast.
There is no evidence that the RM staff is not skilled but there is at least anecdotal evidence that purchase of higher yielding tickets is not as strong as before. The fact that the RM folks continue to fill airplanes and yet have some seats available for last minute high yield fare purchase despite the changing demand curve suggests that the RM folks are in fact quite capable.
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Old Dec 15, 2013, 11:43 am
  #98  
 
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Originally Posted by YRKInsider
There is no evidence that the RM staff is not skilled but there is at least anecdotal evidence that purchase of higher yielding tickets is not as strong as before. The fact that the RM folks continue to fill airplanes and yet have some seats available for last minute high yield fare purchase despite the changing demand curve suggests that the RM folks are in fact quite capable.
Not previously noted: most of the RM analysts and managers came foe United. People focus on the make up of executive leadership, but the rest of the corporate organization is quite different.
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Old Dec 15, 2013, 12:27 pm
  #99  
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Originally Posted by craz
Flying B6 or WN or FL just wont get you to BoraBora
Neither will UA - BOB is not in their, or even their partners, route network.
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Old Dec 15, 2013, 12:51 pm
  #100  
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Originally Posted by craz
Flying B6 or WN or FL just wont get you to BoraBora or wherever you want to hit outside the US (except Mex and Carribean)
FWIW, the JetBlue TrueBlue program actually can get you to Bora Bora with their partner Hawaiian Airlines, something that Star Alliance cannot do.
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Old Dec 15, 2013, 2:18 pm
  #101  
 
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Originally Posted by sbm12
FWIW, the JetBlue TrueBlue program actually can get you to Bora Bora with their partner Hawaiian Airlines, something that Star Alliance cannot do.
Nope. Hawaiian (HA) does not serve Bora Bora (BOB). Only Air Tahiti (VT) does.
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Old Dec 15, 2013, 2:38 pm
  #102  
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Originally Posted by ffI
Allegiant has TERRIBLE customer service and they are far from bankrupt.
They are the most profitable. Perhaps the 2 are not as simply related.
Yes, but Allegiant has an entirely different business model. It isn't even a hub-and-spoke carrier.

Allegiant and Spirit are the most profitable airlines and as horrible as they are, at least they acknowledge they are ultra low cost carriers and you don't hear them coming up with fake statements such as being flyer friendly.
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Old Dec 15, 2013, 2:47 pm
  #103  
 
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Originally Posted by cblaisd
THAT is question-begging and tendentious, unless you are seriously prepared to give evidence and argue for United's service, offerings, product, seating, etc., etc., being akin to, say, Spirit.
Certainly not Spirit, but at this point the only real differentiators from Southwest for a coach passenger would be Star Alliance and the route network. And, of course, Southwest's superior on-time and customer satisfaction performance.

In any event, the current model certainly seems to be profitable (although not as successful as DL). They can continue in this mode pretty much indefinitely as far as I can see, so I think you're quite correct that anything like Ch 11 is unthinkable.

United isn't failing as a company. They are, however, running a pretty lousy airline.
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Old Dec 15, 2013, 2:50 pm
  #104  
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Originally Posted by YRKInsider
Or the higher yielding demand for UA declined which caused the RM systems to backfill with lower yielding fares. RM at UA is based on historical data which when not replicated causes adjustments in order to ensure full airplanes.



There is no evidence that the RM staff is not skilled but there is at least anecdotal evidence that purchase of higher yielding tickets is not as strong as before. The fact that the RM folks continue to fill airplanes and yet have some seats available for last minute high yield fare purchase despite the changing demand curve suggests that the RM folks are in fact quite capable.
Actually no. The RM systems are monitored by analysts who are supposed to review the inventory allocations of their assigned markets on a weekly basis. If you are a terrible analyst, then you wouldn't be on top of your flights and consequently, the systems will automatically make adjustments to fill the flights as needed (well more dynamic systems like AirMax would, but older ones like PROS wouldn't) and these adjustments, which would result in lower yields, would catch the analysts entirely by surprise (again, if you are on top of your flights every week, you would know when demand is shifting and raise red flags right away, not months later). When I was GS, I had the displeasure of sitting next to UA analysts who only wanted to work there for the non-rev benefits, and by the way they behaved, it left no doubt in my mind that their skills were limited at best.

Your statement: "The fact that the RM folks continue to fill airplanes and yet have some seats available for last minute high yield fare purchase despite the changing demand curve suggests that the RM folks are in fact quite capable" is entirely wrong. Even a Senior Analyst with limited skills would know how to train the systems to force the higher buckets when the flight is at say 90% load factor or higher. This can be done at the market level very easily which wouldn't even require the analyst to review flight by flight, not to mention the obvious fact that UA has cut so much capacity that common sense should tell them that they should hold a few seats for last-minute business passengers.
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Old Dec 15, 2013, 2:59 pm
  #105  
 
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Originally Posted by Michael D
A large number of the complaints it seems to me is that United is less PMUA and more PMCO which makes me think "they" aren't adapting this all alleged necessary attitude. So everybody is going to leave United, I mean, nobody is happy with the new PQD requirements, I mean United is headed for chapter 11.
I think the CO-bashing here is a little unfair. My few flights with CO after they abandoned DEN as a hub with the construction of DIA were all quite pleasant. Both airlines had good points going into the merger - my major gripe is that the merged airline seems to have adopted the worst features of both of its components without capitalizing on their strengths. Just because Smisek and a lot of his team came from CO doesn't make the new airline's failures the "fault" of pmCO. I think that pmUA flyers outnumber pmCO flyers, so there are just more complaints from them. I don't think anybody's exactly thrilled with how the merger has played out.

In any event, it's silly to think that a profitable airline is going to go Ch 11 (barring some sort of catastrophe or a really severe economic downturn). It's just not going to happen.
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