PV_Premier

last time i upgraded an international flight with a GPU i did not show on the cleared list at OLCI/gate. this was ORD-FRA and FRA-IAD.

GBadger

Yes, I think they are. Not sure why, but I'm guessing there's a reason for that.

Hornet1455

I've been a revenue management analyst at a couple of airlines (not anymore, but not that long ago), so I'm happy to weigh in on this one.

Short answer: no. If an airline has a decent demand-forecasting system, it will increase overbooking limits to account for unsold F/J seats -- and will certainly restrict upgrade/award availability -- but it will never reduce F/J availability because of Y overbooking. Think about it: If you're oversold in Y, which is the more expensive risk...

a) Turning away one or more paid F/J passengers because you've zeroed out availability, or
b) Paying $200-400 in denied-boarding compensation (probably as a voucher with <70% average redemption rate) to some low-fare kettle in Y?

Yes, DB compensation can run well north of $400 for longer delays (or anything departing the EU). But inventory analysts are well aware of this and will tend to be more conservative in those markets or time periods (holiday peaks, last flight of the day, etc) where bumping is more expensive.

Also, waitlist is not a factor. No airline will ever, ever turn away a paid F/J passenger to accommodate an upgrade (not even GS, Concierge Key, or the like). Don't believe an agent or airline sales rep who tells you otherwise. They just don't do it. Unless, of course, you're the childhood friend or mistress of a airline executive -- such things still happen from time to time. :-)

Hope this helps!

syrahnose

Is there a time consideration on wait list, or its it primarily status and award. If for example, I put my global upgrade in 2 months in advance, does this trump an upgrade that has only been in 1 month?

I have put in for 2 global upgrades on different flights. One has PDX to SF, then SF to Sydney. Unfortunately, the PDX-SF (what should be a simple regional award connection) went through immediately, but the SF-Syd is waitlisted. The potential here is to waste a global upgrade award if international connection isn't upgraded. Where I could have used a regional instead.

I tried to book a regional for US connction and a global for int online, but it won't let me.

I have a similar problem with PDX-Ord, then Ord to Europe on another flight.

Seems software isn't up to scratch on what is an obvious problem for many.

Hornet1455

Only as a tiebreaker between upgrades of the same type and elite level. Sorry!

GBadger

You won't waste the upgrade -- if SFO-SYD doesn't clear, your GPU will be refunded to you (even if you keep the PDX-SFO F seat).

Time of upgrade request is the third tiebreaker, if I remember correctly, behind status level and fare class.

This makes total sense to me, except in cases where there is obvious high Y demand, and much lower J/F demand. In such a case, I would think the airline would be smart to upgrade the folks who are requesting upgrades anyway and add additional (higher fare class) Y inventory. I would think that sometimes its just a lot easier to sell 10 $2k tickets than it is 10 $4k tickets, and if there is no inventory to buy the $2k tickets because it's all locked up in the J cabin, why not make some open so that you don't end up going out with empty Y seats after you upgrade your waitlist?

Hornet1455

But the airline is effectively keeping its ability to sell both cabins and prevent empty Y seats -- by increasing its Y overbook limit (read: Y availability) by the number of unsold F/J seats or some fraction thereof. And almost no one who is requesting an upgrade in advance is going to withdraw their request before departure, so why block the F/J seats sooner than necessary? You always want to protect a few seats for that last-minute party paying $12K/person for some connection from your flight to a long-haul Asia or Europe flight in int'l F. (Does it happen on every flight? Of course not. But it isn't worth the risk of zeroing out F just to clear a few more upgrades in advance.)

Often1

There is absolutely no reason to give away for free in advance that which you might sell. You can always hand out an UG at the gate if you can't sell the F/C seats, but the other way won't work.

There are almost always volunteers and a carrier can afford to pay a hunk of VDB to acommodate a pax paying $12K for a ticket and even take an IDB hit here and there.

CDKing

You must be right. My ORD-NRT and NRT-SIN do not show me on the cleared list

GBadger

For anyone keeping track at home, I did end up getting the upgrade, despite both J and F showing as Full, and me being #7 on the upgrade list. As far as I can tell, 4 of the F seats were 'blocked' to make room for oversold Y cabin, and there were a few no-shows/ missed connections.