Consolidated "Likelihood of clearing the wait list?" thread (International)
#121
Join Date: Jul 2007
Programs: UA Silver
Posts: 794
Only 3 seats left in the first flight and 5 on the return. The J number is what matters.
Your status does not matter but the fare does (K is near the bottom).
You will be prioritized by your sponsor's status and then by fare.
This is a CPU flight, all GS, all those on Y/B fares and any 1K using certs/miles or on M fare will be ahead of you. All others, including non-GS on CPU will be below you.
GS is probably not an issue because of the PN values would clear the GS immediately.
I would say the odds for the outbound are poor to fair and the odd for the rerun if it gets no worse on sold seats is a bit better.
Your status does not matter but the fare does (K is near the bottom).
You will be prioritized by your sponsor's status and then by fare.
This is a CPU flight, all GS, all those on Y/B fares and any 1K using certs/miles or on M fare will be ahead of you. All others, including non-GS on CPU will be below you.
GS is probably not an issue because of the PN values would clear the GS immediately.
I would say the odds for the outbound are poor to fair and the odd for the rerun if it gets no worse on sold seats is a bit better.
#122
Join Date: Oct 2009
Programs: UA 1K, Hilton ♦ , Hyatt Carbonado, Wyndham ♦, Marriott PE, "Stinking Bum" elsewhere.
Posts: 4,998
However, the other two non-stop flights that day are showing Z0, P0, so OP is lucky that he is not on one of those flights, and at least has a decent chance of making it.
#123
Moderator: United Airlines
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: SFO
Programs: UA Plat 1.995MM, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott Plat/LT Gold, Hilton Silver, IHG Plat
Posts: 66,852
If they don't clear in advance, they still can clear at the gate. You will be ahead on the priority than most CPU .
#124
Join Date: May 2003
Programs: UA1k; Bonvoy Titanium; Hilton Gold; IHG Gold; AA Plat Pro
Posts: 1,794
I don't know whether this is the correct thread for posting this -
I have not played the UA GPU lottery for a long time now, since Lifemiles was great for confirmed C at a bargain price. Now that this option has disappeared, I am back to trying my luck at the GPU lottery again, and was wondering how things have changed in the last 2 years and if I my past experience is still relevant.
I know that SFO-FRA was always hit or miss but am I correct in still assuming that a flight that is Z9 ZN9 P9 (eg., UA 903 on 11/20) is probably a "safe" bet for a lowly 1k ? And that Z9 ZN9 P0 (eg. UA 990 SFO-CDG on 11/20 or 11/22 or ORD-AMS with similar loads) is a bit more difficult but not out of reasonable probability? It is around thanksgiving and I doubt there will be many last minute corporate business purchases ?
Thanks.
I have not played the UA GPU lottery for a long time now, since Lifemiles was great for confirmed C at a bargain price. Now that this option has disappeared, I am back to trying my luck at the GPU lottery again, and was wondering how things have changed in the last 2 years and if I my past experience is still relevant.
I know that SFO-FRA was always hit or miss but am I correct in still assuming that a flight that is Z9 ZN9 P9 (eg., UA 903 on 11/20) is probably a "safe" bet for a lowly 1k ? And that Z9 ZN9 P0 (eg. UA 990 SFO-CDG on 11/20 or 11/22 or ORD-AMS with similar loads) is a bit more difficult but not out of reasonable probability? It is around thanksgiving and I doubt there will be many last minute corporate business purchases ?
Thanks.
Last edited by 1k650; Oct 26, 2014 at 11:07 pm
#125
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: New York City
Programs: JGC
Posts: 445
Worth waiting for the waitlist to clear for mileage upgrade to Business?
Hello,
I am taking a vacation trip back to Japan for New Year's . I'll be on the United EWR-NRT departing in late Dec and NRT-EWR returning in mid-January.
I've already purchased an Economy Plus seat on the outbound EWR-NRT leg, since I'm over 6 feet tall and the last time I bought Economy Plus it made a heck of a difference.
Now my question is - how good of a chance, realistically, do I have to successfully get a mileage upgrade (30,000 miles, which I already have, + $500 copay) to BusinessFirst on the way back if the availability is currently listed as 'Waitlist only'?
Basically I am wondering if I should purchase an Economy Plus seat for the return flight, or request the upgrade right away. I don't have elite status.
Also, if I pay for the Economy Plus seat now and simultaneously pay for the upgrade, would the E+ charge be refunded if my upgrade clears? I don't want to pay $150 for Economy Plus only to have it go to waste.
I will be expected to show up in the office the day after I arrive back in the US, and the last time I flew Business it just felt so much better going to work the next day. I'm not too concerned about the outbound since I will be on vacation and will not need to worry about anything.
Thank you!
I am taking a vacation trip back to Japan for New Year's . I'll be on the United EWR-NRT departing in late Dec and NRT-EWR returning in mid-January.
I've already purchased an Economy Plus seat on the outbound EWR-NRT leg, since I'm over 6 feet tall and the last time I bought Economy Plus it made a heck of a difference.
Now my question is - how good of a chance, realistically, do I have to successfully get a mileage upgrade (30,000 miles, which I already have, + $500 copay) to BusinessFirst on the way back if the availability is currently listed as 'Waitlist only'?
Basically I am wondering if I should purchase an Economy Plus seat for the return flight, or request the upgrade right away. I don't have elite status.
Also, if I pay for the Economy Plus seat now and simultaneously pay for the upgrade, would the E+ charge be refunded if my upgrade clears? I don't want to pay $150 for Economy Plus only to have it go to waste.
I will be expected to show up in the office the day after I arrive back in the US, and the last time I flew Business it just felt so much better going to work the next day. I'm not too concerned about the outbound since I will be on vacation and will not need to worry about anything.
Thank you!
Last edited by mhy; Oct 27, 2014 at 10:27 pm
#126
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Washington, DC
Programs: DL PM; IHG PlatAmb; Hilton Dia; Marriott Plat; Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 7,320
Your question is addressed in the United Mileage Plus forum http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/united-airlines-mileageplus/1256126-refund-extra-legroom-seat-e-merged-2.html
#127
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,454
Also, if I pay for the Economy Plus seat now and simultaneously pay for the upgrade, would the E+ charge be refunded if my upgrade clears? I don't want to pay $150 for Economy Plus only to have it go to waste.
#128
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: ORD
Programs: UA 1K (.25MM) IHG Platinum Elite, SPG Platinum, Marriott Gold
Posts: 123
Hey all,
First time playing the GPU game and have been monitoring religiously for R space to open up to no avail yet. I'd love some guesstimation as to my chances of clearing before 24 hour window or even at gate.
Flight is UA896 HKG-ORD on Monday November 3rd. Understand it's typically an elite-heavy route, so hoping the Monday flight coupled with sponsor's status will help!
Sponsor is a 1K, I'm on a W fare with the current buckets looking as follows:
F2, FN2, A1, ON0, O0, J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z7, ZN7, P6, PN0, R0, RN0, IN0, I0, Y9, YN9, B9, M9, E9, U9, H9, HN9, Q9, V9, W9, S9, T9, L9, K9, G0, N0, XN9, X9
Some P inventory which I've come to understand is possibly a good indicator?
First time playing the GPU game and have been monitoring religiously for R space to open up to no avail yet. I'd love some guesstimation as to my chances of clearing before 24 hour window or even at gate.
Flight is UA896 HKG-ORD on Monday November 3rd. Understand it's typically an elite-heavy route, so hoping the Monday flight coupled with sponsor's status will help!
Sponsor is a 1K, I'm on a W fare with the current buckets looking as follows:
F2, FN2, A1, ON0, O0, J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z7, ZN7, P6, PN0, R0, RN0, IN0, I0, Y9, YN9, B9, M9, E9, U9, H9, HN9, Q9, V9, W9, S9, T9, L9, K9, G0, N0, XN9, X9
Some P inventory which I've come to understand is possibly a good indicator?
#129
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Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,454
Booked 30/40. You still have a chance. Could be a bunch of GS/1K on the waitlist ahead of you though. W is lowest eligible fare.
#130
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: ORD
Programs: UA 1K (.25MM) IHG Platinum Elite, SPG Platinum, Marriott Gold
Posts: 123
Happy to report back that sometime this afternoon Shanghai time, they must have released one R seat as my upgrade is now confirmed (traveling companion sponsored by same 1K is still wait-listed on a W ticket, interesting that UA will literally do this one seat at a time.)
#131
Moderator: Hawaii-based airlines & Hawai'i forums
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Ka ʻĀpala Nui, Nuioka
Programs: NEXUS/Global Entry, Delta, United, Hyatt, IHG, Marriott, and Hertz
Posts: 18,038
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unite...s-upgrade.html
#132
Join Date: May 2003
Programs: UA1k; Bonvoy Titanium; Hilton Gold; IHG Gold; AA Plat Pro
Posts: 1,794
#133
Join Date: Oct 2009
Programs: UA 1K, Hilton ♦ , Hyatt Carbonado, Wyndham ♦, Marriott PE, "Stinking Bum" elsewhere.
Posts: 4,998
#134
Join Date: May 2003
Programs: UA1k; Bonvoy Titanium; Hilton Gold; IHG Gold; AA Plat Pro
Posts: 1,794
#135
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 11,468
I know that SFO-FRA was always hit or miss but am I correct in still assuming that a flight that is Z9 ZN9 P9 (eg., UA 903 on 11/20) is probably a "safe" bet for a lowly 1k ? And that Z9 ZN9 P0 (eg. UA 990 SFO-CDG on 11/20 or 11/22 or ORD-AMS with similar loads) is a bit more difficult but not out of reasonable probability? It is around thanksgiving and I doubt there will be many last minute corporate business purchases ?
My first choice would be CDG, then FRA or ORD.
Agree with you on lighter US outbound business demand, but there might still be EU business travellers heading back to Europe.