N830MH

http://www.getwestlondon.co.uk/news/west-london-news/new-images-heathrow-airports-proposed-10196752

Let the speculation begin.

Mizter T

The speculation began a long, long, long time ago!

I'd say Heathrow releasing some slick but nebulous artistic impressions makes little difference.

Markie

We are expecting the decision by Christmas. But there is speculation that it will be pushed back until after the election for Mayor of London next May in order to improve the Tory candidate's chances of election.

Microwave

Yes, but will Father Christmas be bringing it?

In all seriousness, do we need to continue to delay delay delay for this election or that election? Is it helping things? Ok sorry, I'll get off my soapbox...

nux

Speculation began a long time ago..

2009: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/briti...overnment.html
2009: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/briti...-approved.html
2012: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/briti...ow-runway.html
2013: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/briti...way-plans.html
2014: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/briti...ion-plans.html

N830MH

What a waste!! They waste their time. Come on! Let get going!!!

Mizter T

I think you rather reveal yourself as someone who isn't quite aware of the incredibly fractious nature of the question of Heathrow's third runway!

There are an awful lot of people dead set against it, including the current Mayor of London, and both the leading candidates to become the new Mayor next year. Additionally, in 2009 the current Prime Minister said this - "The third runway at Heathrow is not going ahead, no ifs, no buts" - though the Tory party manifesto for the 2010 election was more careful to just rule it out for the life of that parliament (i.e. until May 2015). Meanwhile their 2015 manifesto just vaguely says they will "respond to the Airports Commission’s final report", and Cameron is now somewhat more equivocal.

That's just a small way of illustrating that the whole issue is something of a political hand grenade, if not a very dense mine field.

Mizter T

Just to add to the comments above, the BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg has written this short piece (published this morning):

Heathrow Airport expansion: A 'toxic dilemma' for ministers

lhrsfo

I wish I could get paid that well for saying nothing new in not very many words.

Mizter T

The information in that piece about the email from the Cabinet Secretary, Jeremy Haywood, to government ministers ahead of the party conferences is new.

And to-the-point brevity rather than protracted verbosity is not something to be snorted at, I'd say!

N830MH

I can't agree with you. If they approved for Heathrow a third runway expansion, and it will helps to reduce the slots restrictions. Eased the congestion. Let find out soon enough. Why not fourth runway? How about that? I think they can reduce the slot controlled. They can save the money and save the time as well as reduce delays.

DYKWIA

If only it was that simple...

stut

It never is.

Remember that the location of Heathrow wasn't really a coordinated decision, just a post-war "oh, let's use that military base for civilian flights" kind of thing. Transport isn't ideal either, although it's improved somewhat.

But look at the map:

https://goo.gl/maps/FDHg9JqDXJU2

Which town do you demolish to build the runways?

And if you're increasing traffic, you'll need more terminals and parking. And much more public transport - but how? Those motorways will need more room too - they don't just serve the airport, but there's nowhere for them to expand into.

So what do you do?

And remember Heathrow doesn't just serve London. The "M4 corridor" between London and Newbury is heavily built up around high-tech industries, very wealthy, and dependent on the airport. Points up to Birmingham are in the catchment area. As are the Home Counties, particularly Surrey, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and Hertfordshire - again, major sources of lucrative traffic. They will all need to get there.

And heading into London... The M4 heads towards the centre, but narrows and then peters out somewhere around Hammersmith, heading on to crowded surface streets. It can already barely cope with the traffic, and the viaduct sections aren't in the greatest state of repair. No room to expand.

Then remember that this is one of the most expensive cities for real estate in the world.

It's a really tricky situation. Heathrow is the premium airport, but transport isn't wonderful, it's surrounded by built-up areas, and a huge amount of industry in the area is dependent on it being the premium airport. Yet, without expansion, it will lose out on lucrative new routes to developing countries, with other European hubs taking over. It also serves a large portion of the most densely-populate part of the country outside of London. Flightpaths are over prosperous, dense parts of London - the areas that politicians listen to.

Gatwick has a reputation as a 'bucket and spade' airport. Its rail links are substantially better than Heathrow, but its road links substantially worse (for central London) meaning that it struggles to attract premium traffic. It is very successful in its own right, and serves a wide area to the south of the capital. But you will struggle to get this airport to get the really lucrative traffic. And, if Heathrow is the main airport, particularly for long-haul, you're only really going to get point-to-point traffic here, due to the inconvenience of inter-airport transfers. And it's only the LCCs that make decent profits on point-to-point these days, so its bucket and spade status could well remain.

Boris Island or any other scheme out in the Thames Estuary would give a new start, following the massively successful models of airports like Incheon, Kansai and Chek Lap Kok, but throws up all sorts of other problems. Its location makes it a London airport only - the rest of the country, particularly the prosperous areas to the west of London lose out significantly. You then also have very serious safety and environmental issues with migratory birds.

What about other solutions? Modal shift to high speed rail for domestic/France/Benelux? Not enough on its own, and there's no guarantee HS2 will get built. High-speed rail to create two-centre airports between Heathrow and Northolt or Gatwick? It's a little out there, but could work?

Provide incentives to create a new hub somewhere like Manchester or Birmingham? You won't get the premium traffic that London affords, but then KLM do well enough in Amsterdam without it. And the 'Northern Powerhouse' could certainly use this kind of boost.

Or do we believe we are at a peak of air traffic to/from the UK at the moment? Is it worth the investment?

slawecki

if they would just open the airport for 24hr per day service(like they did DCA), there would be no problems for the volume.

stut

Is there that much demand for flights between midnight and 5am at LHR?

The problem here is that the approaches are over areas that are both densely populated and prosperous. Not to mention swing seats... Politically very difficult - there's enough of a fuss about going to mixed mode, let alone all night.