B747-8 for TK?
Sep 9, 2017, 5:15 pm
#16
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Yes, they has already rumored about A380 before, but they wasn't interested the entire A380. They didn't want to take it. They change their minds.
Sep 9, 2017, 5:41 pm
#17
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Why wouldn't TK focus on 77x and/or A350 for future WB orders?
Sep 9, 2017, 10:18 pm
#18
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1. There have been plenty of 747's at IST over the years. The airport can handle them easily (well as easily as it can handle any additional flights). I also believe that the newest gates (those opened about a 14 months ago) can handle A380's. So the claim above that the airport cannot handle them is untrue (and to spell it out I can recall at different times Saudia, El Al, Thai- a long time ago, and others operating 747's out of IST regularly.
2. They say that the new airport will "open" in late 2018. I do believe that they will have a runway done then, or maybe early 2019 and they will hit their date and then "test" it for at least a year, and maybe run a few flights after and that maybe it will go into real operations in 2021 or 2022 - with the goal to have it fully functioning as TK's hub by the 100th anniversary of the Turkish Republic in 2023.
2. They say that the new airport will "open" in late 2018. I do believe that they will have a runway done then, or maybe early 2019 and they will hit their date and then "test" it for at least a year, and maybe run a few flights after and that maybe it will go into real operations in 2021 or 2022 - with the goal to have it fully functioning as TK's hub by the 100th anniversary of the Turkish Republic in 2023.
2. The new airport at the time of opening in 2018 will have 2 runways working which can have simultaneous landings and take-off, which is something Ataturk does not have right now. They plan to have 90 million passenger operating capacity at the completion of the first phase. The fully functioning goal you suggest is for the 150 millions capacity at the completion of the airport. I believe Ataturk Airport will move all operations to the new airport in a year after opening at most because the air traffic structure of Istanbul does not permit Ataturk airport and the New airport operating at the same time.
All this information is public so you can look it up, I am not trying to be contradictory, just trying to give information as I know them from both the press and the people working for the company.
Sep 10, 2017, 12:26 am
#19
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Sep 10, 2017, 5:06 am
#20
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tcmb:
The new gates CAN handle an A380, that is why they were built the way they were.
Yes that is how the runways are planned to work, however watching the flight path(s) from my house, I can assure you that they change often as wind is not a constant thing.
I most recently saw a 747 in IST about 3 weeks ago, and perhaps a month before that and two the month before that. As SAT's photo's above show, what you say is incorrect. No they are not that regular, but are regularly there and have been for decades.
Regarding 2018, yes that is the plan. It will not happen, and there is a long history of projects in IST the last decade or so hitting their opening date, and then not really functioning for 6 months to 5 years. Notice the third bridge AND the Northern Marmara highway, or almost any opening of any subway line (and many other projects). They are doing a good job of building things, but the timelines are often too aggressive. Considering the fact that TK is still having financing issues in building their facilities at the new airport, this late in the day, you are not going to see significant Ops until 2012 at the very least.
The new gates CAN handle an A380, that is why they were built the way they were.
Yes that is how the runways are planned to work, however watching the flight path(s) from my house, I can assure you that they change often as wind is not a constant thing.
I most recently saw a 747 in IST about 3 weeks ago, and perhaps a month before that and two the month before that. As SAT's photo's above show, what you say is incorrect. No they are not that regular, but are regularly there and have been for decades.
Regarding 2018, yes that is the plan. It will not happen, and there is a long history of projects in IST the last decade or so hitting their opening date, and then not really functioning for 6 months to 5 years. Notice the third bridge AND the Northern Marmara highway, or almost any opening of any subway line (and many other projects). They are doing a good job of building things, but the timelines are often too aggressive. Considering the fact that TK is still having financing issues in building their facilities at the new airport, this late in the day, you are not going to see significant Ops until 2012 at the very least.
Sep 10, 2017, 9:19 am
#22
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Was at IST today and there was a Kalitta air 747 (cargo).
Re: TK's fleet plans, IMHO the 747-8 and A380 can make sense at highly slot constrained, high volume airports. If anything, old Atatürk would fit that bill - but it could hardly handle the significant extra pax flow from several such birds being based there (vs. visiting from e.g. DXB 1x per day). And it will close eventually.
If the new IST airport will be everything it is said to, then it should have much less capacity constraints, which in turn would lessen the need for the big whales and would suggest going with B777X or A350-900 /1000 instead.
Re: TK's fleet plans, IMHO the 747-8 and A380 can make sense at highly slot constrained, high volume airports. If anything, old Atatürk would fit that bill - but it could hardly handle the significant extra pax flow from several such birds being based there (vs. visiting from e.g. DXB 1x per day). And it will close eventually.
If the new IST airport will be everything it is said to, then it should have much less capacity constraints, which in turn would lessen the need for the big whales and would suggest going with B777X or A350-900 /1000 instead.
Sep 10, 2017, 7:15 pm
#23
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2. The new airport at the time of opening in 2018 will have 2 runways working which can have simultaneous landings and take-off, which is something Ataturk does not have right now. They plan to have 90 million passenger operating capacity at the completion of the first phase. The fully functioning goal you suggest is for the 150 millions capacity at the completion of the airport. I believe Ataturk Airport will move all operations to the new airport in a year after opening at most because the air traffic structure of Istanbul does not permit Ataturk airport and the New airport operating at the same time.
The airport seems NOT to be in the advanced stages of development. Looking from above they only work on the first runway and the terminal building is definitely not finished.
Only judging from what I saw, 2018 is fairly unrealistic (IMHO).
Sep 11, 2017, 1:13 am
#24
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I spoke to a pilot at TK and he also said 747s can land in Istanbul even on the shorter runway when necessary and an A380 landed for an airshow back in the day. He also said TK has 2 747 cargos on lease now. so sorry for misinforming everyone here.
he also said that 747s usually park at open spaces and there are only a few gates that can handle them, most of which are actively used by TK 777s. his view is that Istanbul is an operational nightmare right now and having jumbo type passenger airplanes at Ataturk regularly would cause complete chaos. He thinks we will see a lot of 747s and A380s be it TK or some other airlines at the new airport.
I think the most important thing here is that Ataturk will close in a year or two even if there are delays, and TK probably needs to order any 747s or a380s right about now if they want to operate them at the new airport. I read news recently that they want to have 500 planes by 2023 and they have 320 now, so we can expect to see a lot of different orders in the next few years.
he also said that 747s usually park at open spaces and there are only a few gates that can handle them, most of which are actively used by TK 777s. his view is that Istanbul is an operational nightmare right now and having jumbo type passenger airplanes at Ataturk regularly would cause complete chaos. He thinks we will see a lot of 747s and A380s be it TK or some other airlines at the new airport.
I think the most important thing here is that Ataturk will close in a year or two even if there are delays, and TK probably needs to order any 747s or a380s right about now if they want to operate them at the new airport. I read news recently that they want to have 500 planes by 2023 and they have 320 now, so we can expect to see a lot of different orders in the next few years.
Sep 11, 2017, 5:51 am
#25
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1. I would posit that currently 50%+ of 777's and 65%+ of A330's are currently leaving from remote gates, so whether 747's do or do not go from there is immaterial. Notice the rest of us did not have to "ask a pilot" whether or not there are 747's at IST, we see them there regularly. We are speaking from facts, not feelings.
2. There has NEVER EVER been any plan that IST is closing in "a year" as you state, and even the most OPTIMISTIC projections do not have it closing in, "or two" as you contend. The most gung-ho projection is for them to have something open at the new airport site by the end of 2018, and even that date, would literally mean having a plane land, and having some ribbon cutting - that's it.
Keep in mind that until late last year the drop dead opening date was supposed to be Oct 29, 2017, yes about six weeks from now. Then until April or so the date was supposed to be February 2018, it currently supposed to be October 29, 2018.
Please name me any airport in the world, not just a new terminal building, that in the last 30 years has been finished on time and has started operating the day after its opened? You also do know that there are all sorts of tests and accreditations that need to be obtained before any airport can operate, right?
You do know that the last extension to IST was done just last year and that TAV has a contract for IST through the end of 2021, right?
2. There has NEVER EVER been any plan that IST is closing in "a year" as you state, and even the most OPTIMISTIC projections do not have it closing in, "or two" as you contend. The most gung-ho projection is for them to have something open at the new airport site by the end of 2018, and even that date, would literally mean having a plane land, and having some ribbon cutting - that's it.
Keep in mind that until late last year the drop dead opening date was supposed to be Oct 29, 2017, yes about six weeks from now. Then until April or so the date was supposed to be February 2018, it currently supposed to be October 29, 2018.
Please name me any airport in the world, not just a new terminal building, that in the last 30 years has been finished on time and has started operating the day after its opened? You also do know that there are all sorts of tests and accreditations that need to be obtained before any airport can operate, right?
You do know that the last extension to IST was done just last year and that TAV has a contract for IST through the end of 2021, right?
Last edited by hfly; Sep 11, 2017 at 5:55 am Reason: Forgot TAV bit
Sep 11, 2017, 7:00 am
#26
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I spoke to a pilot at TK and he also said 747s can land in Istanbul even on the shorter runway when necessary and an A380 landed for an airshow back in the day. He also said TK has 2 747 cargos on lease now. so sorry for misinforming everyone here.
he also said that 747s usually park at open spaces and there are only a few gates that can handle them, most of which are actively used by TK 777s. his view is that Istanbul is an operational nightmare right now and having jumbo type passenger airplanes at Ataturk regularly would cause complete chaos. He thinks we will see a lot of 747s and A380s be it TK or some other airlines at the new airport.
I think the most important thing here is that Ataturk will close in a year or two even if there are delays, and TK probably needs to order any 747s or a380s right about now if they want to operate them at the new airport. I read news recently that they want to have 500 planes by 2023 and they have 320 now, so we can expect to see a lot of different orders in the next few years.
he also said that 747s usually park at open spaces and there are only a few gates that can handle them, most of which are actively used by TK 777s. his view is that Istanbul is an operational nightmare right now and having jumbo type passenger airplanes at Ataturk regularly would cause complete chaos. He thinks we will see a lot of 747s and A380s be it TK or some other airlines at the new airport.
I think the most important thing here is that Ataturk will close in a year or two even if there are delays, and TK probably needs to order any 747s or a380s right about now if they want to operate them at the new airport. I read news recently that they want to have 500 planes by 2023 and they have 320 now, so we can expect to see a lot of different orders in the next few years.
Sep 11, 2017, 10:38 am
#27
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http://www.kokpit.aero/200-senaryo
https://www.dunya.com/sirketler/tava...-haberi-377744
you can use google translate to read what is being written, the first one is an interview with the IGA airport operations CEO, he talks in detail about how the move will happen. and the second one is about the compensation issue with TAV until 2021.
the airport is 60 percent complete so I also think its ambitious to open it october next year, but I also don't think they will open and make a slow gradual move there that will last until 2021.
https://www.dunya.com/sirketler/tava...-haberi-377744
you can use google translate to read what is being written, the first one is an interview with the IGA airport operations CEO, he talks in detail about how the move will happen. and the second one is about the compensation issue with TAV until 2021.
the airport is 60 percent complete so I also think its ambitious to open it october next year, but I also don't think they will open and make a slow gradual move there that will last until 2021.
Sep 11, 2017, 4:52 pm
#28
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Well, if they are 60% complete (although easily found online sources say anywhere from 40-70% all in the last 2 months, and they have been going at it heavily for more than 3 years, that portends another 2 years until its really built. Then all the testing, and not just for their various clearances, but how about the baggage system - you know, the kind of thing that has delayed airport or even just terminal openings for 18+ months all over the World? Fire suppression system, oh yeah, access roads, trains and the like. This is not like building a bridge that does not actually connect to a new highway for many years, or a train that can only go to 1/10 of its proposed stops for 5 years, etc.
They have spent countless billions in TK and IST and cannot blow it just to make a ceremonial date and close down the existing airport, that is why every pilot I know, as well as many actual airline execs familiar with IST basically said what I said. No it won't be 2023, but it will not be before 2020, and can easily push into 2021.
The Dunya article says absolutely NOTHING, except that if they close IST before the end of 2021, they owe compensation to TAV. Yes, everyone knows that. My point is that they extended with TAV through 2021 in 2014! (actual serious negotiations for the previous 18 months or so), you know, at the time that they had ALREADY PLANNED the new airport (which at that time they had even said it would be open in Q1/2017!)........which means that they were taking precautions OR that that is in fact their real dropdead deadline.
Also you do not construct 8 new gates (or 4 A380 gates) and level the airport infield and do a bunch of other things in mid to late 2016 if you were planning on shutting the whole thing down less than a year later - which is what their stated plan was at that time. This is looking more like DWC and DXB all the time (wasn't DWC supposed to take over everything about 4 years ago? Yet they still built a new terminal at DXB - billed as the World's biggest, and all that is at DWC are some cargo and LCC carriers.
They have spent countless billions in TK and IST and cannot blow it just to make a ceremonial date and close down the existing airport, that is why every pilot I know, as well as many actual airline execs familiar with IST basically said what I said. No it won't be 2023, but it will not be before 2020, and can easily push into 2021.
The Dunya article says absolutely NOTHING, except that if they close IST before the end of 2021, they owe compensation to TAV. Yes, everyone knows that. My point is that they extended with TAV through 2021 in 2014! (actual serious negotiations for the previous 18 months or so), you know, at the time that they had ALREADY PLANNED the new airport (which at that time they had even said it would be open in Q1/2017!)........which means that they were taking precautions OR that that is in fact their real dropdead deadline.
Also you do not construct 8 new gates (or 4 A380 gates) and level the airport infield and do a bunch of other things in mid to late 2016 if you were planning on shutting the whole thing down less than a year later - which is what their stated plan was at that time. This is looking more like DWC and DXB all the time (wasn't DWC supposed to take over everything about 4 years ago? Yet they still built a new terminal at DXB - billed as the World's biggest, and all that is at DWC are some cargo and LCC carriers.
Sep 11, 2017, 7:03 pm
#29
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1. There have been plenty of 747's at IST over the years. The airport can handle them easily (well as easily as it can handle any additional flights). I also believe that the newest gates (those opened about a 14 months ago) can handle A380's. So the claim above that the airport cannot handle them is untrue (and to spell it out I can recall at different times Saudia, El Al, Thai- a long time ago, and others operating 747's out of IST regularly.
This is not a gate issue but a taxiway problem here I believe.
Sep 11, 2017, 7:08 pm
#30
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