Go Back   FlyerTalk Forums > Travel&Dining > TravelBuzz!

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old Oct 22, 08, 2:11 pm   #16
I Voted
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 7,538
Quote:
Originally Posted by iahphx View Post
There is no FUNDAMENTAL reason for the Euro to be worth more than parity against the US dollar.
And there is no fundamental reason for the USD and EUR to be at parity. It's just a game of ups and downs.

However, given the level that USD and EUR started at, something closer to 1:1 is what I would predict.
__________________
Airline complaints? File your complaint with the DOT
soitgoes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Oct 22, 08, 2:19 pm   #17
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: PDX
Programs: AA PLT, HH <>
Posts: 3,327
Quote:
Originally Posted by iahphx View Post
Well, that would suggest by itself that you didn't have a long term business.
Not necessarily. Our primary customer base is in the US. We are a distributor, and we carry lines from many different manufacturers from around the world. Our customers are primarily US-based dealers.

Many of the manufacturers we work with have other distributors in other countries to cover their respective regions. But due to the favorable exchange rate, some dealers in those regions are choosing to buy from us rather than from their local distributor. Where our distribution agreement with the mfr does not prohibit this, we are happy to take that business. But we see this merely as temporary "gravy" in addition to our core business (which remains strong).
__________________
巧言令色, 鲜矣仁!
Fine words and an insinuating appearance are seldom associated with true virtue!
--Confucius
Skyman65 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Oct 22, 08, 2:26 pm   #18
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: PHX
Programs: Delta, US Airways
Posts: 2,477
Ouch. I went to Iceland last May when $1 = 74 ISK. It's now 115 ISK.
alanh is online now   Reply With Quote
Old Oct 22, 08, 3:08 pm   #19
I Voted
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 7,538
Quote:
Originally Posted by alanh View Post
Ouch. I went to Iceland last May when $1 = 74 ISK. It's now 115 ISK.
And that's largely an artificial exchange rate. The ISK isn't trading.
__________________
Airline complaints? File your complaint with the DOT
soitgoes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Oct 22, 08, 3:22 pm   #20
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: BHX/LHR
Posts: 382
As an expatriot, I love this. Of course, Uncle Sam will drop my military cost of living allowance drastically to make up for it... I can't win!
terrysalmi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Oct 22, 08, 3:44 pm   #21
Moderator: US Airways Dividend Miles
I Voted
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Where cows > people
Programs: US1, UA1K, Hilton/Hyatt Diamond, SPG Plat, PC Gold
Posts: 2,458
Quote:
Originally Posted by YVR Cockroach View Post
The USD has been rising for a couple of technical reasons.
1) Investors/speculators unwinding commodity positions (as prices fall) and the stuff is denominated in USD so the USD rises as the commodities are sold.
2) Capital shortage/rationing as banks are holding onto cash and as multinationals deal in USD for financing, the value is being chased by scarcity.

Wait for the credit crunch to subside and the fundamentals that devalued the USD over the past 5 years will return, and with a vengeance given the additional $5-6 trillion debt of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now assumed by the U.S. government but conveniently kept off the books and the even-larger budget deficits (compared to the past few fiscal years).
I read an article recently that essentially mirrored this view - enjoy it while it lasts, because it's temporary and things will get worse than you've ever seen them before...

I tend to believe it, though I'm very much out of the loop on these economic issues. Looks like it's time to negotiate with the boss to get paid in Euros...
__________________
My Travel Photos
vysean is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Oct 22, 08, 5:08 pm   #22
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: YVR
Programs: FB PLT OZ*G-for-life
Posts: 15,461
Quote:
Originally Posted by vysean View Post
I read an article recently that essentially mirrored this view - enjoy it while it lasts, because it's temporary and things will get worse than you've ever seen them before...
Several articles. This was one of the earliest:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/10/news...tune/index.htm
__________________
"I have a fear of flying. I fear flying in the back cabin"
My Flight Memory
YVR Cockroach is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Oct 22, 08, 7:34 pm   #23
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: MSN/ORD
Programs: DL, UA, AA
Posts: 801
Hmm... when to make the hotel reservations for LHR trip I have in March??
__________________
My Flightmemory
mlbcard is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Oct 22, 08, 7:54 pm   #24
I Voted
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 5,832
Quote:
Originally Posted by YVR Cockroach View Post
Several articles. This was one of the earliest:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/10/news...tune/index.htm
I would not say that article makes a compelling argument that the process WILL reverse. Just that it MIGHT.

Which loosely translates as "nobody knows."
iahphx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Oct 22, 08, 8:57 pm   #25
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: IAD, LHR, YVR
Programs: UA 3K, DL Gold, CO Gold
Posts: 1,805
A fair warning to all, this has the potential to reverse just as quickly. We've seen 20-30% drops (v USD) in many currencies which <i>could</i> turn around just as fast. The system is in flux that much.

That said, life here in the UK (paid in USD) is that much sweeter this week at least....
ironmanjt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Oct 22, 08, 9:21 pm   #26
I Voted
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 7,538
Quote:
Originally Posted by ironmanjt View Post
A fair warning to all, this has the potential to reverse just as quickly. We've seen 20-30% drops (v USD) in many currencies which <i>could</i> turn around just as fast. The system is in flux that much.
Yeah...swings between 1EUR=.90USD and 1EUR=1.60USD are quite possible. I don't see it leaving that range anytime soon.
__________________
Airline complaints? File your complaint with the DOT
soitgoes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Oct 23, 08, 12:48 am   #27
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Walnut Creek, CA USA
Programs: UA Premier, BA, AA, HHonors Diamond
Posts: 322
Even with the pound at $1.60ish vs.the US dollar, the UK is still going to be much more expensive than the U.S. It would have to get down to the 1.20 area to make costs comparable.
__________________
My Flight History
daveinsf is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Oct 23, 08, 4:28 am   #28
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: UK
Posts: 2,102
Quote:
Originally Posted by wanaflyforless View Post
Now my exports are no longer attractive.

A strong $ will really hurt the US export business.
Yep, I buy low cost, high volume stuff from the US and will now have to ask for a larger discount if they want to keep my business.
__________________
Pull it, don't pump it !
beergut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Oct 23, 08, 6:52 am   #29
I Voted
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: LNZ, PEK, HKG
Programs: LH SEN, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 801
the dollar strenghens ... bad news

no more dirt-cheap shopping sprees in NYC? I hope not...
__________________
my flight memory
mapu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Oct 23, 08, 1:06 pm   #30
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: ELP
Programs: Chairman MC, HH Gold, AA GOLD, PC RA, TAJ Innercircle Silver
Posts: 2,625
Quote:
Originally Posted by wanaflyforless View Post
Now my exports are no longer attractive.

A strong $ will really hurt the US export business.
and it will help my IMPORT business !!

Already getting offers for 20% less prices and suppliers are giving 10-15% discount if the pay the acct in full.
__________________
STRANGE is a necessary evil required to refresh and renew the NORMAL.
anaggie is offline   Reply With Quote
 
 
Reply

Bookmarks


Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 8:31 am.




SEO by vBSEO 3.2.0