Go Back  FlyerTalk Forums > Travel&Dining > TravelBuzz
Reload this Page >

What airlines will be around in 25 years time?

What airlines will be around in 25 years time?

Old Apr 12, 2016, 9:17 am
  #31  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Canada, USA, Europe
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 31,452
Originally Posted by pinniped
The entire aviation industry, worldwide, is heavily subsidized through protectionist policies, friendly local political accommodation, and cozy relationship with regulators.

Not to mention that most of the infrastructure besides the planes themselves is publicly funded. (I believe this is a good thing for many reasons...logistics, safety, standardization, etc....but it's a form of subsidization.)
Agreed. My point was that there is little point in picking out specific airlines guilty of receiving handouts. They all did/do.

Originally Posted by rankourabu
Air Canada for example, successfully lobbied the government to stop ME3 from flying to Canada. Instead of competing, they are happy (as a public company!) to receive a govt subsidy in the form of interference/protectionism. Apart from that, they received bailout handouts in 2009.
And pretty much all US airlines at one point or another received Ch11 handouts from the taxpayer...
LondonElite is offline  
Old Apr 12, 2016, 10:54 am
  #32  
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: BSL or PDX
Programs: A3 Aegean *Gold
Posts: 12
Talking Trump Airlines will own all domestic carriers

and make America great again!
deduckfan is offline  
Old Apr 12, 2016, 11:42 pm
  #33  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 179
Originally Posted by Austin787
In the USA I see the smaller airlines combining together over the next 25 years. By 2041 we could have 6 airlines:
1 ULCC: Spirit+Frontier+Allegiant
1 LCC: Southwest
1 Upscale LCC: Alaska+Virgin America+JetBlue+Hawaiian
3 Global airlines: American, United, and Delta
those are mostly operated in USA
how about asia and europe region?
willythomas561 is offline  
Old Apr 13, 2016, 8:47 am
  #34  
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: W Florida
Programs: AA plat, UA 1K, Marriott lftm PL & Hilton gold, Celebrity elite, Fairmont pres
Posts: 19
Not all bad guys:

Eastern is coming back. What could possible be better?
Seriously, our LCCs are already uncompetitive and the great foreign carriers are eating their lunch.
EPMER1 is offline  
Old Apr 13, 2016, 10:34 am
  #35  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jul 1999
Location: ORD/MDW
Programs: BA/AA/AS/B6/WN/ UA/HH/MR and more like 'em but most felicitously & importantly MUCCI
Posts: 19,712
Originally Posted by Austin787
1 ULCC: Spirit+Frontier+Allegiant
1 LCC: Southwest
1 Upscale LCC: Alaska+Virgin America+JetBlue+Hawaiian
3 Global airlines: American, United, and Delta
I see no reason other than nostalgia to classify Southwest as an LCC. Their cost basis is no longer lower than the remainign three hub-and-spoke legacies and their fares are often higher. We have a Big Four now, with a smattering of B-tier carriers, some LCC, some not.
BearX220 is offline  
Old Apr 13, 2016, 10:45 am
  #36  
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: MCI
Programs: AA Gold 1MM, AS MVP, UA Silver, WN A-List, Marriott LT Titanium, HH Diamond
Posts: 52,496
I think the main reason I still have a hard time characterizing WN as part of the "Big Four" is because they have no alliance and such a small regional footprint.

Of course, learning that they collude just as much as the other three cartel members somewhat reduces my reluctance to admit them to this "club".

It will be interesting to see if one of Frontier, Allegiant, or Spirit ever attempts to clean up its image, offer halfway passable customer service, and attempt to behave like Southwest did many years ago. (It was no-frills, but prided itself on being customer-friendly.) It seems like Frontier might have a little bit of this in their DNA. They *were* this once. I don't expect Allegiant to do it...they're just going to keep duct-taping up old MD80's and flying them to Florida. Spirit talks a growth game, but hasn't shown any indication of ever behaving like a serious, professional airline (even a no-frills one).
pinniped is online now  
Old Apr 13, 2016, 11:43 am
  #37  
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Virginia City Highlands
Programs: Nothing anymore after 20 years
Posts: 6,892
Fore sure - Philippines Airlines. You can check - why.
invisible is offline  
Old Apr 13, 2016, 2:28 pm
  #38  
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 377
Originally Posted by BearX220
I see no reason other than nostalgia to classify Southwest as an LCC. Their cost basis is no longer lower than the remainign three hub-and-spoke legacies and their fares are often higher. We have a Big Four now, with a smattering of B-tier carriers, some LCC, some not.
I agree.
Flamenguista is offline  
Old Apr 13, 2016, 2:30 pm
  #39  
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 377
If I had to predict any US low cost carriers having any sustained growth, I'd only bet on Frontier.
Flamenguista is offline  
Old Apr 13, 2016, 2:51 pm
  #40  
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: SFO
Programs: AA exp, Marriott Amb
Posts: 224
Originally Posted by BearX220
I see no reason other than nostalgia to classify Southwest as an LCC. Their cost basis is no longer lower than the remainign three hub-and-spoke legacies and their fares are often higher. We have a Big Four now, with a smattering of B-tier carriers, some LCC, some not.
Three of the "Big Four" have the infrastructure and partnerships to support global travelers, Southwest can take you to the Caribbean for spring break. One of these things is not like the others.
ClimbingCook is offline  
Old Apr 13, 2016, 2:52 pm
  #41  
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: East Coast, USA
Posts: 1,032
Easy. For the 99%, if we look at the current profit rates:

North and South America: Spirit
Europe and Africa: RyanAir
Asia and Oceania: AirAsia
ME: all of the above?

For the 1%, private planes.

No elites, no whining about upgrades, everybody wins?
radiowell is offline  
Old Apr 13, 2016, 3:03 pm
  #42  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 1,808
Originally Posted by pinniped
I think the main reason I still have a hard time characterizing WN as part of the "Big Four" is because they have no alliance and such a small regional footprint.

Of course, learning that they collude just as much as the other three cartel members somewhat reduces my reluctance to admit them to this "club".

It will be interesting to see if one of Frontier, Allegiant, or Spirit ever attempts to clean up its image, offer halfway passable customer service, and attempt to behave like Southwest did many years ago. (It was no-frills, but prided itself on being customer-friendly.) It seems like Frontier might have a little bit of this in their DNA. They *were* this once. I don't expect Allegiant to do it...they're just going to keep duct-taping up old MD80's and flying them to Florida. Spirit talks a growth game, but hasn't shown any indication of ever behaving like a serious, professional airline (even a no-frills one).
Indeed, and Southworst remains "no-frills" despite increasingly comparable fares to legacy airlines. In other words, they cost as much, but offer way less. Still no F, no lounges, no broad international, no pre-selection of seats.
I still consider them an LCC (Low Class Carrier ha ha) due to the amenities and lack thereof, but certainly not on price..and I haven't for at least 7 years now.

In many ways, they have led the race to the bottom.
Proudelitist is offline  
Old Apr 13, 2016, 7:30 pm
  #43  
Moderator: Manufactured Spending
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 6,576
Originally Posted by LondonElite
And pretty much all US airlines at one point or another received Ch11 handouts from the taxpayer...
Chapter 11 may be a handout, but it's certainly not from the taxpayer. It comes from the other businesses that don't get paid what they are owed.

Originally Posted by EPMER1
Seriously, our LCCs are already uncompetitive and the great foreign carriers are eating their lunch.
Since most US LCCs don't fly outside North America, I'm not sure how this is possible.

Originally Posted by BearX220
I see no reason other than nostalgia to classify Southwest as an LCC. Their cost basis is no longer lower than the remainign three hub-and-spoke legacies and their fares are often higher. We have a Big Four now, with a smattering of B-tier carriers, some LCC, some not.
I don't think there is any meaningful distinction between LCCs and legacy carriers. Any carrier that did not fly interstate routes as of the effective date of deregulation is technically an LCC, but since the legacy carriers have all gone through bankruptcy restructuring and lowered their costs, there is now no difference between the two. Rather, it's the ULCCs like Allegiant and Spirit that are disrupting the market.


I can't really predict which airlines will be flying, but whichever ones are left will probably buying aircraft from Comac, which will give Boeing and Airbus a good run for their money in the narrow body category and might even start developing wide bodies.
cbn42 is offline  
Old Apr 13, 2016, 7:35 pm
  #44  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 179
Originally Posted by invisible
Fore sure - Philippines Airlines. You can check - why.
philippine airlines is not really big

it better to have singapore airlines in asia
willythomas561 is offline  
Old Apr 14, 2016, 1:59 am
  #45  
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Virginia City Highlands
Programs: Nothing anymore after 20 years
Posts: 6,892
Originally Posted by willythomas561
philippine airlines is not really big

it better to have singapore airlines in asia
Philippine Airlines AFAIK in the only airline which is operating under the same name it started with.
invisible is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Manage Preferences - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

This site is owned, operated, and maintained by MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Designated trademarks are the property of their respective owners.