BearX220

Load / deload time and irregular fuselage profile probably requiring dedicated containers. Deal-killers.

FLLDL

Of the 318 orders, 138 have been delivered so there are 180 left to produce. This issue with the A380 as highlighted in the article is the fear that the order backlog is dwindling.

Beyond Emirates none of the existing customers seem to have any appetite for additional A380s. In addition, some of the orders which are on the books are dubious at best but remain orders until officially cancelled.

By the time the current order book is cleared the first of the leased A380s will be coming on the market as well, putting Airbus into competition with the secondary market.

Barring some explosion of orders from China or India or Dubai again it does seem like the clock is ticking on the A380.

capacutec

A380, a plane that I will probably never fly due to the fact that no airline from the USA uses them for commercial flight. Perhaps another reason it may not be successful.

Kagehitokiri

any discussion of evolution of how airbus has marketed / configurations ?

interesting, thanks

could be big appetite? will be interesting to watch Emirates.

re "top 10" >

revenue - #7 ANA

passengers >
#5 ryanair
#6 china eastern
#9 easyjet
#10 air china

A380 premium-only upper deck does allow interesting possibilities >

BearX220

Read the thread. Whether US carriers acquire an aircraft type or not is a minor factor in its success or failure given the global marketplace, and the A380 was not designed for American buyers anyway given the topography of their route systems. And with their (historically) weak financial conditions and lackluster service / competitive profile, the US carriers are not big leaders on the new-aircraft front anyway. Sole recent example being UA's Dreamliners.

I am sure you did not mean to imply the A380 may not be successful because you personally are not likely to board one.

bhrubin

I think it's fairly obvious to everyone that:

(1) As a commercial enterprise, the A380 will have been a disappointment if not an outright failure for Airbus. There just aren't enough airlines ordering it for it to be likely to break even on its investment in the next several decades. Outstanding order numbers look very soft, and likely will drop as more and more airlines cancel those and switch to alternative aircraft...and no airline but Emirates is really serious about ordering more. For sheer profit motives, the A380 therefore must be considered a big bust for Airbus.

(2) As a First Class product, the A380 is a huge success. Its bigger space allows for an enhanced First Class Suite product and now Etihad's Apartment product, making it the most desired First Class product in the sky for the most part. Only Cathay has managed to compete without an A380 in its fleet and still have comparably rated First Class. For Business Class products, the A380 does allow more seats, but it isn't a particularly improved Business Class seat enough to "revolutionize" air travel for most business travelers. Having a bar is lovely, but it isn't enough to make a business traveler vastly prefer the A380 IMO. For Economy Class, the A380 benefits for the few airlines offering it are completely offset by the vast number of fellow passengers.

(3) As an engineering feat, the A380 is a big success, demonstrating that such a enormous plane can be built. Of course, the Spruce Goose proved the same thing but never amounted to anything that turned out to be profitable, either!

(4) When compared historically to the Boeing 787 Dreamliner program, the A380 will also be considered a bust. Airbus bet wrong when it assumed more passenger load would be better for the hub-to-hub airline future; Boeing bet right when it assumed more point to point passenger load over longer distances would be better. B787 planes are changing the route maps and creating demand for routes that never before would have existed. Those new routes actually sap some of the demand from the major hub-to-hub traffic on which the A380 depends and likely will create new semi-hub-to-hub traffic in the future as more distant points become more connected...with SFO-CTU being the most obvious example.

We will fly the A380 for our first time in BA First Class LHR-LAX (using BA Avios from 2012 Amex MR tranfer with 40% bonus) in October 2014, and our second time in Emirates First Suites DXB-LAX (on paid tickets) in January 2015. While I'm sure we will very much enjoy the A380 First Class experiences, I also am sure the A380 is only perceived as a win for the very few First Class passengers who routinely get to enjoy it in First Class.

Kagehitokiri

from article i linked in last post >

good point re F, i hadnt thought about it that way (double suite, shower, residence) (i doubt TG lounge will last)

while many people prefer nonstops (787?) many including award travelers go for availability/price/etc, which can be hub-to-hub, right?

bhrubin

I absolutely agree that more award travelers in the future will take advantage of increased hub-to-hub connections...since I similarly believe airlines will release fewer award seats on the high demand point-to-point flights, especially in premium seats. That being said, airlines are not purchasing equipment with the motives of award travelers in mind; they are interested in revenue producing passengers first and foremost. For those, the A380 again is likely a bust on Airbus return on investment.

Even on award travel, I suspect more and more people will go the way of preferring nonstop. I love First Class and luxury more than most, but I still dropped our pre-United devaluation First Class 3 segment award SNA-SFO-FRA-SVO (First, GlobalFirst, First) for nonstop Aeroflot Business LAX-SVO in October 2013. Nonstop trumped First over Business for us. Similarly, we canceled our upcoming October 2014 3 segment award of SNA-SFO-LHR-CDG in First, GlobalFirst, and economy and replaced it with LAX-CDG in AF Business. Even with First Class TATL available, we'd rather avoid the connections that can cause potential mayhem and/or are so annoying and rather take Business nonstop given the choice.

There are frequent flyer nuts who will fly more segments because they enjoy the better service/products and don't mind the longer routing...but these represent a tiny fraction of the number of passengers flying or redeeming for awards.

Kagehitokiri

nonstops cost more - i was talking about revenue pax.

go_around

Interesting thread. Apart from Emirates, I'd be interested to see if further orders come through in Asia. This is where the aircraft's real potential lies. Just saw a China Southern A380 the other day and made me think of this exact point. China is an aviation market about to go crazy, just look at the rate of new AIRPORTS being built never mind planes being ordered. It'll be the usual suspects of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see regular domestic A380s at HKG, CAN, PVG, PEK...

SeriouslyLost

I have a feeling that we're going to see it go into the medium/long range market in China and possibly India by the time they start hitting the secondary market. That will be 10-15 years from now and those markets definitely do (in the case of China) or will (in the case of India) have the volume to make the 380 attractive for 3-5+ hour flights. If the prices on the used market do drop out then that simple makes them even more attractive, in the same way the MD80 is horribly inefficient, but with MD80's at ~$1 million each on the used market you can run them for another ten years against almost anything and you'll still get a better bottom line return. An A380 at $40-50 million used is a very attractive proposition I should think.

cova

But US airlines code share with airlines that use them.

AA does with QF and BA
UA does with LH and OZ
DL with AF and KE

So lots of possibilities.

I am now flying an A380 about 4 times a year. A 787 less, maybe 1-2 times. A380 is my preferred aircraft over the narrow 787. I'll even take a 777-300 over the 787.

BA is starting 380 service out of IAD. BA has 2 times a day 380 from LAX.
AF already has 380 out of IAD. LH uses the 748 out of IAD. (IAD my local airport).

And I wonder if you are going to see an increase in traffic TPAC.
Like people flying from LHR to SYD - TPAC - BA to LAX, then QF to SYD,
versus flight LHR-DUB-SYD? due to all the wars in the middle east and Ukraine?

SeriouslyLost

For when I have to do long haul in Y, it's my particular favourite - so long as I can pick the seats. And given the size and number of seats, I almost always get to pick the one I want.

Kagehitokiri

indeed, is china market growth factored in.
china eastern is #6 for pax. A380 potential?

how do seating configurations compare?

interesting - what about charters sooner?

how many codeshares on A380 routes?

bhrubin

Nonstops don't always cost more--it depends on the route and how much competition there is with supply vs demand. Using A380s on nonstops does permit more supply, after all, especially in Economy, so the economy price depends entirely on the increasing demand based on that supply. Too many A380s will push the supply of Economy seats too high, causing prices to drop which can again make the A380 less profitable. Right now, the A380 is best used when there is high demand for nonstop routes, usually between major hubs, that have limited slots. With less limited slots, the A380 isn't always the best nonstop choice.