CXBA

I bet you mean ANA (NH), not Malaysian.
"Marriages" as the one you mention wrt Chinese airlines were negotiated at government level, as is customary when German companies are involved (nice ways to avoid regulatory and competition issues, again standard German behaviour here).
I disagree about your curt reply at the end. Probably in Cologne they figured out it's time to weed out some shaky members or put in their place troblesome ones (Bosphorus state airline everyone?). But there may be the occassion for some others better placed to start exploring other avenues. I may imagine ST will be aggressively on the prowl, especially in India and South America, but OW surely will have its share of interests.

Kacee

Huh? They're direct competitors in latin america. Copa even has a Colombian subsidiary (Aero Republica). And CM's PTY hub is book-ended by AV hubs in SAL and BOG.

When I fly to Colombia, I have two basic choices - AV through BOG, or CM through PTY.

Superguy

But they gain BA, AB, AY, and IB in Europe. LH isn't the only game in Europe.

OZ is a minor player in *A and gets overshadowed by the NH, AC and UA JV. ICN is very well served by *A as it is and OZ ends up competing with other carriers. Factoring out OZ, *A still has 3x the coverage to ICN from more major world cities than OW does. OW has 12 flights, with the only major OW hubs near are NRT (HND too to a lesser degree), HKG, and TPE. NRT is about the only one that's particularly convenient to ICN. Going out a bit further, you have DOH, LHR and DFW. KUL too - if you're willing to risk flying MH.

OZ can be a much bigger fish and get a lot more traffic from OW than it can from *A. It can be a top tier participant rather than a junior member. I think there's a lot of upside for OZ.

ST is out, of course, thanks to KE being there. But even there, DL treats KE like crap from an earning perspective.

Kacee

Nah, they'd still be third string behind CX and JL. Not that different at all from *A, where they're second tier behind NH and SQ.

Asia just has too many really excellent airlines

SunLover

Based on revenue Lufthansa Group is 50% larger than IAG.

Air France-KLM (ST) is also larger than IAG, making OW the third tier alliance group within Europe.


SL

Too much travel

If the world was as simplistic as you make it out to be, there would only be one single, huge alliance.

In the real world, alliance membership considerations take into account, inter alia, the total amount of additional traffic flows that one can capture, as well as the market share of each of these traffic flows.

In Asiana's case, it has a competitor in its two neighbouring markets that detracts from its market share of such flows: not just any competitor, but the major international airline in each of China (Air China) and Japan (ANA), placing it at a competitive disadvantage in gaining its share of such flows.

drvannostren

Yea, like Kacee I disagree entirely.

Copa serves all of Latin America and destinations in the USA/Canada.

Avianca serves all of Latin America and destinations in the USA/Canada...and Europe.

If you're using the word market in place of market segment/demographic I could MAYBE agree. AV domestically isn't the same, but I see a slightly more affluent traveler on AV. CM fares are pretty cheap, but of course all involve connecting in PTY (which I love but that's another topic) so many Colombians, especially the business travelers don't feel necessary to go MDE-PTY-IAD or BOG-PTY-IAD when they could go BOG-IAD. I also see lots more backpacker types on CM as there's easier connections to central America via PTY, whereas SAL is a bit more limited. So that has an effect. There's also the possibility some people still have some kind of hang-up of setting foot in Colombia and see Panama as a safer choice? I really hope not though.

Point being, there's a lot of overlap between AV/CM since AV took over Taca. Previously there would've been a lot less but since Taca serves basically all of central America AV now has a big presence there.

I can't see AV leaving, they've got a great coverage map for *A. I certainly don't see AC/UA leaving, I don't know enough about the Asian carriers but I hope NH doesn't leave, I've enjoyed my 1 flight enough with them to have bought a 2nd one and I liked HND as an entry point to Tokyo. EVA might make sense with how many other carriers are there, or Asiana I suppose.

Don't know a lot about the European ones either, I question the A3 and Croatian ones all the time, seems to ME they don't bring a lot to the table, but that's just a distant outsider comment.

To me the one that really does make sense, but is super disappointing is Copa. They've branched off from Mileageplus, they're constantly growing their network. They've got all that *A overlap. I really hope they don't, I love flying Copa, it's a great option into Colombia and to many other places, now that AP has fixed the system they've got lots of award space too. The J kinda sucks, but what can you do. My biggest issue with them is there's nothing north of LAX on the west coast. I'm still not sure if the aircrafts have the range but I'd love to see an SFO/SEA/PDX/YVR red eye. Obviously not all of them, but SEA would be great, and I think SFO would make sense. But this whole thing just screams as a chance for them to bail unfortunately.

Superguy

[QUOTE=Kacee;25057623]I disagree here. OZ is also stuck with TG, CA, and a couple others. OZ can open up a lot of Asia to OW. Pretty much, you have only one choice in North Asia ... JL. So what if OZ has to deal with another Japanese carrier? It's already dealing with NH. So nothing new there.

CX is a bit out of the way for north Asia. NRT is ok for transit but I think ICN would be a great alternative.

The AA/JL joint venture is much smaller than *A's. I think there's a better chance OZ could even get in with it.
Bottom line is that OZ has a greater opportunity to be a bigger player in OW and expand OW's Asia network (add thus increased revenue and profit) than competing with 5+ Asian carriers plus the NA carriers and LH.

Just as an aside, KE would also add a lot of value to OW as well. DL and KE aren't on the best of terms, and DL barely treats KE as a partner anymore despite being in the same alliance. If OZ doesn't join, I could see KE potentially tying up with AA. They're already codesharing with AA on a DFW-ICN flight. Plus with flights to most of AA's hubs already (LAX, ORD, DFW, JFK, MIA), there's potential there as well.

I'll agree with that.

Superguy

I don't recall saying that LH wasn't the largest group in Europe, just that there are alternatives as it's not the only show in town.

OW could definitely benefit from feed between Europe and Asia.

SunLover

Your comment on LH is a truism; I just tried to provide some context.
And extending the alliance comparison even further: *A TK >> OW AB.


SL

Kacee

You know CM is adding SFO-PTY, right? It's a red-eye departure from SFO, morning departure from PTY.

drvannostren

Haha yes I actually did, not sure why I mentioned SFO there, what I'm hoping for eventually is something north of SFO. For us in YVR, buying a flight to SFO adds big cost to a ticket, whereas if it were PDX/SEA/YVR I could just drive. Not sure if it'd be worth it for them or if they have the range, but I can dream!

Red Raider LV

LO seems like an odd departure as they're part of the LH FFP.

lgts

If this is true and they all stay in it, that would be a huge confirmation of how strong the alliance.

nerdbirdsjc

Even after the changes to its operating structure, Star Alliance remains 1) the strongest and 2) the most "egalitarian" of the three global alliances.

Few potential departures from Star will find a more productive commercial outcome by changing alliances, as oneworld and SkyTeam have long unashamedly favored the whims of their largest members. Joining SkyTeam, for instance, means becoming a lap dog to Delta (in the Americas) or AF-KLM (in Europe and Africa). Oneworld is basically AA, IAG (BA/IB, but really just BA), QF, and JL with everyone else foraging for table scraps of clout.