beyondhere

According to the links provided from N830MH above, all the FNT leisure routes are gone, and FNT-MDW is replacing everything. I missed those changes. I think FNT is in bad shape like CAK and GSP, and at risk for station closure. I think the short drive between FNT and MDW will be a factor in the summer months impacting O&D. For business travel, I doubt there is enough business passengers just between those markets, to split between WN, AA and UA. For the connecting pax, there might not be enough high yielding passengers for WN to make it work.

DAY maybe also in risk of closure, but I wonder if WN eventually gets into CVG. I think RIC, DSM and GRR maybe weak currrently, but not weak enough that WN can't sustain it. They are also not as nearby to other WN stations.

lougord99

I doubt that WN had many business travelers MDW-DSM. The times were atrocious. I finally stopped even checking DSM and just fly to Omaha.

beyondhere

If WN is truly comfortable running short-hauls without them capturing any O&D (e.g. GSP-ATL's likely fate), a RIC-BWI should be important for consideration.

The Richmond area is growing and it's between the Raleigh and DC markets - which will benefit it long term. RIC is over 100 miles from both RDU and DCA/IAD/BWI, so it's location won't adversely impact it either from competing for service, unlike CAK's relation to CLE.

By WN offering a RIC-BWI, WN could sell a lot of Northeast connections to BOS, PVD, MHT, PWM, BDL, along with upstate NY, Ohio and Michigan, and transcons from BWI. Probably it wouldn't be much a backtrack really in any direction, much like AA offering RDU-CLT. I think it'd complement the RIC-ATL service.

A PHL-BWI might also open PHL for more connections, but WN might prefer running more mid to long hauls from PHL, and using MDW for connections.

jb3t

I'd like to see a BWI <-> RIC as it would make RIC accessible from most stations. However, ORF is reasonably close to RIC so I do not think I see that happening.

It's interesting that they're opening up short-hauls again. I would not mind reopening all those MHT, BOS, and PVD flights to Philly again. I miss those. They were always packed but I think most pax were through pax.

beyondhere

There is the Hampton Roads Bridge–Tunnel traffic. Also, one would be driving down south to reach ORF, to then connect at BWI, to head North or Northeast. One unfavorable aspect is dealable (such as connecting), but two unfavorable aspects would be a deal breaker (a long drive, and then also connecting) for many, in my opinion.

It will be interesting to see how Southwest deals with Richmond. So far, it's been underwhelming but not totally bleak. Richmond is a growing region with an industry focus. It's desirable that it has Amtrak, and driveable distance between DC and Raleigh's RTP area. I think the region will continue to grow.

The Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News market is larger by Census figures, but RIC has more air service than ORF in both passengers and departures. It also maintains service to BOS while ORF doesn't, which gives me some inclination that Richmond might be stronger for business travel.

There are likely not a whole lot of many markets in the Eastern US where Southwest can realistically grow, with the exception of international routes out of it's hubs.

I think the PHL-PVD/BOS/MHT short-hauls were different kind of short-haul targeting major markets, and they were longer distance targeting some O&D travel, than just feeder flights. I wouldn't expect Southwest to offer short-hauls again out of PHL just because AA already offer those and US was able to win market-share and higher fares over Southwest when the two competed. AA has the international hub advantage on the PHL side.

Probably Southwest's best bet is longer flights out of PHL to large markets or low frequency markets from AA out of PHL. I'm hoping WN will restore HOU-PHL. I'm not sure if the HOU-EWR cancellation works in that favor or not.

tmiw

GRR-MDW apparently only takes 16 minutes, not including taxi, taking off and landing. Can the 737 handle flying many short flights like that? I remembering hearing that Hawaiian Airlines had to go with 717s for inter-island flights because of that kind of concern.

alggag

The biggest problem is doing 20 minute flights all day everyday as is the case in intra Hawaii. GRR-MDW is about 10 miles shorter than HOU-AUS, a flight that I figured would have been canned a while back. As long as the aircraft continues to operate a longer flight it shouldn't be too big of a deal.

tusphotog

Yep. It'll be fine as long as they don't run MDW-GRR-MDW turns all day, every day. I suspect they'll run the planes on longer segments before and after the GRR trip.

The reason HA went with the 717 as opposed to the 737NGs had to do with short ground time and the amount of time the engines have to cool at cruise. Many of the Hawaiian airports have short(ish) runways that require higher takeoff thrust and higher cruise power, since the flights cruise in the low 20s or even teens.

AQ ran them on some intra-island flights to build hours and landings for new NG pilots and they had issues with delays even with increased ground time.

returnoftheyeti

I am so happy about MDW-FNT. I live in San Francisco and my family is in Michigan/Flint. The only reasonably priced flights from the west coast were of course to DTW, and by reasonably priced I mean only about $500 r/t (or $650 n/s on Delta). Seriously SFO/OAK -DTW is one of the most expensive routs I fly regularly. So anyways, it's now technaly possible to fly to FNT and GRR from the west coast, with the previous routes to BWI or ATL the flights were way to long, or you could not connect.
If the price is right, the drive from GRR to just about anywhere in Michigan is fast and easy. Even for me, if it's faster getting a rental car and getting on the road the extra 20 minute drive to Flint would be worth it.
GRR also is close to Lansing which is losing its flights on Sun Country to BWI as well. I think DL picked it back up though.

As for FNT, it's actually closer to Oakland County and Auburn Hills than DTW. You could drive some business traffic there. You just have to market it the right way.

Edit**************

So I checked all 3 stations for the middle of April, nothing less than $600. Ouch. But at least I have 3 expensive stations to choose from. To compare. AA will get me to DTW for around $400, and DL for job st over $500.

wahooflyer

Good to see some discussion about RIC. 1.25 million people in our metro area, plus another million+ within a 90-minute drive -- yet WN has left us with arguably worse connectivity than we had with AirTran.

I like the Southwest product and do fly them occasionally, but 3 flights a day, to ATL only, doesn't hold a candle to the domestic connectivity we get on AA/UA/DL. DL has 8-10 daily flights, all MD80 or 757, from RIC-ATL, and from what I know anecdotally they've won the business of many frequent RIC-based flyers who were loyal to AirTran 5 years ago. Southwest hasn't done much to grow their brand here, let alone their number of flights, so it's no wonder they're cutting the RIC-MCO nonstop.

RIC-BWI wouldn't add any value because it'd be 99% connecting traffic. UA thru IAD/EWR and AA thru PHL already provide frequent one-stop service to second-tier cities in New England, upstate NY, etc.

What we really need in this market is more nonstops to cities Richmonders actually want to fly to, especially points west. STL or DEN would be logical for Southwest. There are strong rumors in the Richmond business community that we will be getting a nonstop from RIC-DEN in 2016, but I'm not holding my breath for Southwest to start it. United is the more likely candidate, based on the chatter I've heard.

Despite the frustration many of us in RIC have felt with Southwest, I would imagine ORF might be first to go. One advantage RIC and many of the smaller ex-AirTran stations have is that they are allowed to use contracted ramp and ops agents. ORF is down to 5 flights a day or so, and since it opened before 2009, the ironclad union contracts force Southwest to use their own, much higher paid, employees there. Plus, the Hampton Roads region has had more economic struggles than the Richmond region in the last few years because of decreases in government defense spending.

JerryFF

Not much of interest for the west coast.

oswaldjacoby

It seems pretty clear that southwest is giving it a final try at some Airtran stations before deciding whether or not to close shop. Grand Rapids, Flint, Des Moines, Witchita, Akron/Canton are on the brink of closure. And even though Greenville Spartanburg was a WN station, it is also on the brink. It appears SW is testing whether rejiggering the link and connection opportunities to these stations can make them viable. But would look for most of these stations to close in 2016.

beyondhere

I had a look at both RIC-MCO and ORF-MCO. According to Q1 2015, RIC-MCO is a larger market. WN was dominating both markets in market-share as well, but WN was getting lower fares on RIC-MCO relative to ORF-MCO.

My guess is that because B6 was on RIC-MCO nonstop as well, it triggered more competition, and probably the legacy carriers were discounting one-stops even more. And/Or, there is some higher yielding potentially business traffic that Southwest gets on ORF-MCO. B6 runs a daily nonstop on RIC-MCO but on a smaller aircraft.

Southwest will be cutting RIC-MCO and other inherited AirTran MCO routes, but it will be soon on EWR-MCO.

On EWR-MCO, I doubt Southwest will buy TV air time on the NYC stations like it does in cities like Baltimore, and as Southwest doesn't participate on third party sites, it's nonstop might not be visible to the EWR catchment area for those not accustomed to check southwest.com. It will be interesting to see if this will prove successful or not, when those close to EWR might stick with UA and B6, and others further south like the park and walk to gate experience of airports like TTN and ACY.

Southwest might be tolerant with some routes being 99% connecting traffic, or atleast with the resumption of IND-MDW. I can bet for sure that IND will not be cut, unlike GSP and FNT, etc.

I agree that RIC-STL and RIC-DEN could be good choices. I just think a smaller step towards more service would be RIC-BWI maybe at 3x daily first. It would use less aircraft utilization and could be a good way to provide access to markets in all directions.

It's too bad that GSP-BWI is slated to being cut. I remember just last year, Southwest was doing it half-heartedly with a 1x daily evening schedule which was terrible to attract any business traffic. Southwest might be trying to stay on CLT-BWI but sabotaged GSP-BWI in the process to lure it's customers to try to use CLT-BWI. CLT-BWI has a limited 2x daily schedule.

In some ways, I think restoring BWI-EWR might not be a bad idea if some of the South markets get a 1-stop access to NYC region via BWI, and NYC region customers get South markets and Carribean flights via connection, but it's too late I guess as this short-haul resumption seems to be a change of strategy from a strategy where it was originally cut outright.

N830MH

Which stations will be closed? On what city is that? This will be next schedule extension.

beyondhere

B6 is adding a second daily RIC-MCO flight, likely to replace some capacity lost from WN's deletion of RIC-MCO. B6 is running E190s on both flights, however, which might be the right aircraft capturing some business travel and leisure travel.

Maybe Central VA is cut-off territory where maybe some people are more likely to drive down to Disney/Universal, than from points north of Washington region, where it will take closer to 2 full days of car drive to get down to MCO. North of Baltimore/DC, there maybe greater volume to fly down.

RDU-MCO seems like more an outlier however to that theory, as Southwest maintains 3x daily on it on larger aircraft, and DL has 3x daily as well. I don't think either WN or DL run as many connections if at all on RDU-MCO, like ATL-MCO gets.