toomanybooks

http://southwest.investorroom.com/in...s=43&item=1995

Most everything looks improved.

rsteinmetz70112

Surprisingly trips flown is down 3.2% over last year. I wonder if that was due to weather.

I had expected trips to be down for the first quarter, because of the loss of the Airtran planes but it hasn't been. This is the first month trips are down a significant percent, even though other indicators are up.

Until trips start making a sustained increase we can expect to see any new service offset by loss of service somewhere else, so I expect new service will be limited to the markets where Southwest is almost compelled to offer new service (DAL, DCA and LGA). Hopefully new aircraft deliveries and acquisitions will allow overall increase in service later in the year, possibly including the restoration of some recently cancelled service.

3Cforme

Upgauging means fewer departures can still mean more ASMs. Some city pairs can lose frequency without losing seats.

rsteinmetz70112

Upgauging may also mean some city pairs have the same number of seats or more. But that's also often at the expense of non-stops, not simply the result of larger aircraft.

One route I know fairly well now has more connections but fewer non-stops since Southwest took over. It's currently showing 13 flights one way but only 3 non-stops vs 5 non-stops previously. Weirdly they are only showing 7 connections the other way but still only 3 non-stops.

The Airtran 717s had 117 seats.
The Airtran 737-700's had 137 seats.

Where Airtran used 737's there was not much of an upguage (only 6 seats) unless Southwest uses a 737-800 on the route but the 800's represent only about 15% of the fleet.

Where Airtran used 717s, 5 717's = 585 seats while 4 737-700 = 572 seats give or take a few seats. So in the case above there are more total seats, using a connection but fewer non-stop seats than before.

But in the end adding new destinations or flights is limited by the number of airplanes.

toomanybooks

http://southwest.investorroom.com/in...s=43&item=2015

rsteinmetz70112

Interesting.

Most indicators up 6% over last year, except for:

• Trips Flown which is down again by 0.7% and
• Average Length of Haul with is up over 2% (21 miles).

The increase in length of haul doesn't fully explain the the reduction in trips flown. Dividing ASM/Average Length of Haul indicates that there should have been around 500 more trips, perhaps a result of the scheduling changes or the reduction in the number of aircraft due to the retirement of the Airtran 717s.

FWAAA

I don't follow your calculation above. I'm not certain, but I think you might be equating "average length of haul" with "average stage length," and they're not the same. In the first quarter, WN's average stage length (average nonstop segment distance) was 739 miles, up 4% yoy, primarily due to longer DAL stage lengths with the expiration of the Wright Amendment. The first quarter average length of haul (average distance of one-way passenger trip) was 978 miles, up slightly yoy from 2014. Connecting passengers account for the longer average LOH compared to the average stage length.

Trips flown (number of aircraft departures) has fallen as more and more 738s have joined the fleet and, as you mentioned, the former Airtran schedule from ATL has been trimmed.

rsteinmetz70112

Yes I was confused by Average Stage length vs Length of Haul. Where can one find Average Stage Length?

However Trips Flown is not a function of the size of the plane but the number of planes and the distance they fly. If 738s were entering the fleet one to one for 737-300s or even 717s then trips flown would remain the same (assuming flights were not longer) but ASMs would go up. In fact Southwest now has fewer planes flying than it did last year plus a increase in the segment length is where the reduction in trips flown comes from. I'm surprised the reduction is as small as it is.

LegalTender

Big time change.

WN Average Stage Length:

1995: 401
2000: 492
2015: 739

rsteinmetz70112

However according to the linked data 2013 was 682, for small narrow bodies ( not 800s) that's only a 6% increase in 2 years.

LegalTender

1106 for 800s...a year before WN started flying Intl.

toomanybooks

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/southw...20150609-00550

PRASM down 6%.

rsteinmetz70112

That's probably mostly due to GK's bonus. Other than that it's hard to explain.

Note that trips are still down 0.5% probably due to the reduction in planes.

Everything else is up pretty good..

Kacee

Industry wide. All three legacies reported similar drops in PRASM. Blamed it on oil hedges, currency, and drop in last minute (read: full fare) bookings.

rsteinmetz70112

OK I'll buy oil prices. But Southwest has very little exposure to currency fluctuations. The drop in last minute bookings I also can't explain, Southwest has for several years been pricing last minute fares above market. Usually the only reason to fly Southwest at the last minute is brand loyalty.