Location: World Citizen (currently NYC, Colombia, London)
Programs: AF/KL Gold (Elite+); CO Gold; LH Senator; AV Platinum; BA; TA
Posts: 58
ST coverage in Latin America after COPA leaves for *A
Once CO and CM leave ST to join *A (CM has already announced it will follow CO), ST will be left with no Latin American partner south of Mexico. That will leave a huge hole in ST’s coverage, especially considering how well the competition will be doing on that front:
- OW with Mexicana and LAN, which is already operating international flights out of 4 South American countries (Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Argentina) and is planning to expand to other South American countries (starting with Colombia).
- *A with TACA, COPA and TAM, which currently are (together with LAN) THE best airlines in South and Central America.
What will ST be left with?! I think we will need at the very least one international carrier with a strong presence in South and Central America, plus one major Brazilian carrier.
For the former, the two best options would have been TA and CP, but *A is going away with both, so I think Avianca will be the only possible option left… However, even if AV does join ST at some point, it has quite a lot of work to do before then: improve its service to begin with, but also consolidate its network (it’s currently working on the acquisition of Ecuador’s Aerogal, which has just been merged with AV’s small Ecuadorian subsidiary VIP); it’s also looking to strengthen links to Brazil’s OceanAir (AV, VIP and OceanAir make up Synergy Aerospace, and all have the same owner; there’s rumours that VIP and OceanAir will both be rebranded as Avianca at some point in the near future).
As for the Brazilian partner, if the abovementioned does occur and the extended AV joins ST, the OceanAir network would provide pretty good coverage. However, another possibility could be Varig/Gol… My doubts: would both (AV/O6 and G3/RG) be compatible in the same alliance? Would we want G3/RG to be in ST in the first place, given its current status? (I guess the same question might be asked of AV, but I don’t really see any other viable options at the time being…)
I agree that AV and G3 are the most likely candidates.
The others are not great candidates. AR was recently nationalized after years of problems. PU is an associate possibility, though it seems to have closer ties to OW. I don't know much about V0, except that it has a limited route network and there are signs in U.S. airports now questioning Venezuelan air safety standards. I don't know the impact that would have on alliance membership, though it presumably doesn't help.
I am quite suprprised AF didn't try to get CM to migrate into Flying Blue...
Avianca needs to get in, and the "strategic alliance" (almost-merger) between Santa Barbara and Aserca in Venezuela may yield another decent potential partner...
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I am quite suprprised AF didn't try to get CM to migrate into Flying Blue...
My guess is that CM would probably not have been that interested anyway and would prefer integrating a North American FFP, as FB is Euro-centric and European pax must constitute a tiny proportion of CM's customers and North American travel would also be more of a priority for them than European travel.
I have strong doubts about both CM and TA joining *A they are bitter rivals( it is kinda like having JL and NH in the same alliance), and since there is nothing offcial yet i think we should wait and see what happens.I think CM and TA are fighting each other to get in with statements etc and in the end only one will join *A, and as it looks now i think TA will have the better chance they are closer to LH and UA plus they not only offer a central america hub but also a hub at Lima.Maybe Skyteam will make CM a full member instead of a associate to keep them in.
Programs: Flying Blue Gold, Priority Club Gold, Marriott rewards Gold, BD, JJ, BAEC
Posts: 495
Well, I haven't seen anything official that Skyteam is considering any new South American airlines, these suggestions about Avianca and Varig are just wild speculation.
As I live in Brasil, after Copa and TAM join *A, I'll follow. Except SA, I fly just to Europe and if I stay with Skyteam, that leaves me only with Air France (after flying with Alitalia during the recent strike, I don't think I'll repeat that soon)
Avianca and TACA for now will maintain separate brands although Kriete says over the long term they may "possibly look at gradually moving to a single brand". Kriete says TACA will continue pursuing Star Alliancemembership, a process begun last year. Villegas adds Star "is the right thing" for TACA but Avianca at least for now plans to remain independent.
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The above is only my opinion , it is entirely possible that I could be wrong ( it happened once before )
I would not be so sure about G3 joining ST. G3 has recently signed a strong partnership agreement with AA. Both OW and ST needs a Brazilian carrier after TAM decided to join *A.
Quote:
Originally Posted by neuromancer
As I live in Brasil, after Copa and TAM join *A, I'll follow. Except SA, I fly just to Europe and if I stay with Skyteam, that leaves me only with Air France (after flying with Alitalia during the recent strike, I don't think I'll repeat that soon)
I would not say "only" regarding AF since it operates double daily flights both in GRU and GIG.
You also have KLM (AMS-GRU) and Air Europa (MAD-SSA).
Alitalia btw has improved considerably and now serves both FCO-GRU and MXP-GRU.
ST coverage in Latin America after COPA leaves for *A
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