milesmilesmiles

Forecast for late Sunday/Monday is 100% chance for 3-5 inches of snow with 20mph winds.

http://www.weather.com/weather/5day/l/USNJ0355:1:US

1k-all-the-way

I have a PS transcon ex-JFK on Monday afternoon. Forecast calling for 3-6 inches of snow...no travel waiver yet. Anybody have enough JFK experience to know if this amount of snow cancels most flights....or just delays? (I know it depends). I'd like to stick with my original date, but want to decide in advance in the event a change waiver comes up.... Any thoughts on how to play it?

sbm12

If your preference is to fly that day then don't make a change until that is no longer viable.

mduell

Depends heavily on what mass transit does. If the subways and busses shut down, you can expect cancellations rather than delays.

MDTyKe

I have a longhaul out of EWR also... Im eager to see what they do!

milesmilesmiles

Snow totals moving up to 5 to 8 inches

sbm12

It is quite unlikely that a forecast of 3-6" will shut down transit.

Letitride3c

Typically, for NYC's winter storm to adversely impact ground transportaions - especially trains (including AirTrain) and subways, snowfalls would need to be 10" or more and/or combined with icing and high wind conditions. MTA has invested in snow removal equipments in the past few years along with lessons from Sandy, so it's better prepared. See this MTA page for useful info
As expected, the forecast for this Sunday night - into Monday morning, post Super Bowl, is all over, anywhere from 3" to as high as 10" in the city, before the media monkeys add in the Groundhog for fun - it's probably more reliable to use mass transit to get to the airports, just allow extra time - highways, main roads and side streets could be far worst. But, the main unknown this time is the extreme cold temperature and wind, which can result in frozen switches and signal problems - heck, we get that on a nice & sunny day for regular commuters all the time. The key is to allow extra travel time and if one's travel plans are flexible, have plan B and C available.
B6, and DL have started posting travel waivers for this weekend, expect UA to follow at some time (if not already or shortly thereof today) as the clock ticked & get closer to the final hours. BWI/DCA/IAD aren't on the short list for these waivers as they aren't expecting a big snowstorm in the mid-Atlantic. AccuWeather is on the high side and TWC on the low side with accumulations, at this moment. Historically, JFK is pretty good with getting overseas/long hauls and transcon in & out, as long as they can plow & clear the runways and keep up with deicing the birds - flights will be delayed so "mind" those connections closely .

FlyerChrisK

AA has a waiver posted? I don't see one as of 9:30PM Pacific.

Letitride3c

Thanks, corrected comments above ... Oops, was just doing a quick glance - waiver was for the last NYC storm and New England, the one in place now from AA is for Central US. Nothing specific for NYC airports yet from AA or UA ... waiting for updated weather forecasts from the experts, no doubt.

dand99

TWC showing "rain to snow", 1" worth...

MDTyKe

I don't see a downgrade at all. I see a Winter Weather Watch; for 6-10" of snow and freezing rain for EWR at least.

How close, typically, do UA release these waivers? And, do they typically open up F seats to saver F awards for flights the next day?

Mrtrash757

watch out, CNN might break out out the blizzardmobile again...





In all seriousness, I would expect a waiver sooner or later... if the storm has the same intensity they are predicting here in ORD... then it will be bad

MDTyKe

Keeping one eye out for a waiver..! They really do leave it last minute eh?

transportprof

Yes, UA and other airlines get a lot of revenue from 'broken' tickets - i.e., ones where people don't actually fly their booked itineraries. Waivers dilute broken ticket revenue.