Upgrading to Business chance???

Hi
I'm flying with Emirates next week:
from Dammam (DMM) to > Dubai(DXB) to > Toronto (YYZ)
With 8 Hrs stopover in Dubai

I have 48,000 skywards miles but I'm in BLUE tier level (some of my miles are transferred/earned via other sites.. etc). I went to the Emirates office nearby and asked them for upgrade (Dubai to Toronto), it requires 45,000 miles to upgrade my flight (DXB>YYZ) but the issues are all those lovely Business seats are taken.. Also, there are 6 other members (GOLD) are on waitinglist for business class.

Some of them have actually paid $$ to book their *wait-listed* business seat and are not upgrading using miles (I'm the only one on that waiting list asking for upgrade with skywards miles) - this is according to the Emirates guy in the office.

So Skywardis -from your experience,
what are my chances on getting a business seat during my 14Hrs flight Dubai to Toronto? I really wish to fly on Business and feel comfortable on that day.

Any suggestion? point? Thanks in advance!

From my experience on the YYZ sector, I would say near to zero ! Last time I flew, Y was overbooked by 94 and J by a high teens figure.

Without paying, I think your chances are close to nothing. Sorry!