Chopstyx

If according to my previous post the radar image from the Straits of Malacca is based on a hoax and MH370 never flew west, then one has to give serious consideration whether MH370 flew south from where the oil rig worker Mike McKay saw an aircraft on fire briefly.

Such a fire implies depressurisation since a naked flame could not exist outside at 35,000ft but could exist inside the cabin until pressures have equalised. Then any escaping flames would self extinguish.



I have charted two alternative courses intercepting the southern Arc. the red line is the course as currently projected to a new area to be searched in September.

The yellow route describes a 5.5 hour flight south from the VOR beacon at Con Son island off Vietnam crossing overhead Singapore at 35,000ft and 471kt. It assumes a turn overhead con Son island about 17:49 UTC.

The cockpit fire scenario infers the yellow path. The claim MH370 flew through the Straits of Malacca infers the red path.

I place both scenarios together on a chart with where they would intercept the Southern Arc for others to consider.

EsherFlyer

I thought there were two possible explantions for that (but haven't dug down to see where the consensus is on them - if you know please point to it):

1. The BOF is a combination of the satellite orbit perturbation (since it is not truly geostationary) and the aircraft velocity. So the satellite could be moving towards the aircraft faster than the aircraft is moving away from it at the points you reference.
2. The graph is for some reason inverting the offsets, and should be upside down.

Generally you raise some interesting points, so not trying to argue that you are wrong as such - just trying to bottom out a few things.

ACARS

I have tried to find the relevant post, still looking.

As I remember it the autopilot can fly LNAV (preprogrammed route), Heading Select or Track Select. The heading/track reference can also be changed from magnetic to true (as done over the North Atlantic). So I would imagine a true track could be flown with no end point entered into the computer.

Chopstyx

I do get it wrong sometimes but that is the only way to learn is to experiment with ideas. Also if we were fed a load of garbage at the start by parties lying in the official version then it is hard not to screw up and misinterpret.

As for the BOF chart issued by the Malaysian Government on 24 March, when it was first published I pointed out on a couple of web forums including Duncan Steel's that the data appeared inverted.

Since MH370 was plotted on SSR radar up to IGARI at 17:22 UTC flying northeast (away from INMARSAT) yet the BOF chart showed increased Doppler frequency from 17:07 UTC there was a paradox.

One could not have velocity westwards when radar was tracking MH370 flying east away from INMARSAT.

You can say anything with numbers but we are talking about the Doppler effect. The Doppler Effect is that as a target recedes the frequency drops. As a target advances it compresses the signal therefore the frequency increases.

Satellite engineer Mike Exner realised the same paradox in April and published his own alternate BOF chart, which incidentally matches the yellow alternate route from Vietnam quite well.



Exner observed that the signal after being sent from MH370 to INMARSAT was re-transmitted to Earth and in that process the offset data was being inverted. He recalculated the data values reversing that inversion and came out with this BOF chart. Personally I accept the Exner chart over the official one.

Chopstyx

It is simple logic that one can only fly a great Circle route if one has a start point and a finish point since one has to compute several calculations.

You can't just point MH370 south and say to the autopilot fly a Great Circle Route because if the autopilot could answer back it would have to say, okay but to where?

I imagine on a FANS 1/A aircraft for oceanic flights there might be such a function, but it would require a start and finish waypoint. I know of no waypoints between Cocos Islands and Australia which MH370 could have been commanded to calculate a great circle route for.

http://skyvector.com/?ll=-20.6821281...rt=304&zoom=10

I do know that if an autopilot reaches a waypoint with no further instructions it will just continue to fly the last magnetic heading.

It is far more logical that they were having electrical problems, loss of on-board navigation systems so continued past BITOD towards the VOR beacon at Con Son so they could fly the VOR radial back to Singapore for an emergency diversion.

Over Con Son I postulate they selected L-Nav to divert to Singapore, perhaps even inputted the code for Singapore itself intending a descent from 35,000ft, but then a blaze erupted and engulfed them?

Once MH370 flying depressurised and on autopilot reached Singapore it just kept flying the last heading (196 True?). It is worth noting too that magnetic variation would distort any magnetic track towards Australia no matter which heading MH370 was pointing at the start which could imply intercepting the southern arc higher along the Southern Arc than just a straight track flying 196 degrees True. The limiting factor would have to be the fuel endurance from Con Son island of 5.5 hours. approaching IGARI the airspeed was 473kt, then about IGARI it reduced to 471kt perhaps as a result of the turn?

Chopstyx

I would add this too:

if the radar image for MH370 flying through the Straits of Malacca is a hoax image then the only other "evidence" for that alleged flight west is the claim MH370 was seen turning back from IGARI and flying west across Kota Bharu by primary radar at Surat Thani in Thailand.

When you study the radar horizon from Surat Thani you quickly realise that this claim must be a hoax too.



Once you realise that the information which so many calculations have been based on are merely hoaxes, it becomes less a question of investigating aviation matters and more one of considering a political cover-up.

That is not a question for this forum to concern itself with, except to the extent of whether the claimed flight track is reliable or not?

There are issues of political corruption within that country which the disappearance of MH370 co-incide with and these relate to the involvement of Prime Minister Najib Razak in a failed bid during 2011 to arrange a private buy out for Malaysian Airlines by Air Asia which the Malaysian Commerce Commission reversed declaring it illegal.

Prior to the annulment of that take over bid Malaysia's Prime Minister made political appointment of several managers from Air Asia to Malaysian Airlines.

One of those appointments was the CEO maintenance who was a person not sufficiently qualified to hold the position. In the wake of MH370's disappearance Malaysia's ruling party has blocked their Parliament discussing that appointment or MH370.

On 26 March 2014 there was an arson attack at the airline's No.4 Avionics Maintenance Hanger which destroyed maintenance files for 9M-MRO. Staff were threatened with instant dismissal and further legal consequences for even discussing the arson attack.

I do not understand Malaysian politics and that is not a topic which we are in a position to understand but there does appear to be a political dimension to this tragedy.

FTcadence

On July 18th, 5 months after MH370 disappeared, a Malaysian bank noticed something unusual. Thousands of dollars were transferred from the accounts of 3 MH370 passengers into a 4th passenger's account and then withdrawn via several ATMs.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...ght-MH370.html

After an internal investigation, a bank officer was suspended. She and her husband were arrested by local police as the likely suspects behind the unauthorized account withdrawals. An unidentified Pakistani man is also suspected to somehow be connected.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...s-9670492.html

Stealing from the (likely) deceased? Disgraceful....

john398

I am surprised these monies were not disbursed to next of kin by now

FTcadence

In a new book titled Goodnight Malaysia 370, New Zealand-based commercial pilot and veteran air accident investigator, Ewan Wilson, places all of the blame for the missing jet on the allegedly mentally ill pilot...
http://www.9news.com.au/world/2014/0...ditching-plane

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/late...-author-claims

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-n...0-died-4073140

DanielW

The lack of hard facts of flight MH370 gives plenty of room for speculative fiction.

beachmouse

Reminds me of the novel (and later film) Millennium:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_%28novel%29

submonte

Emirates CEO Tim Clark questions investigations on flight MH370


Sir Tim Clark, 64, since 1985 stands at the head of Emirates airline based in Dubai, since 2003 President and CEO of the Group. In recognition of his services to the aviation industry, the Briton was recently knighted.

Interview in SPIEGEL ONLINE published Oct. 9th, 2014 (Der Spiegel is the leading German political magazin)


http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/mh370...-a-996056.html

https://translate.google.de/translat...tml&edit-text=

chx1975

We have a very interesting, level headed analysis here. http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/s...1-denis-thomas

Doc Savage

This involves such a huge number of assumptions that its likelihood of being the correct guess is vanishingly small.

sbrower

In my opinion, saying that it "vanishingly small" rather than something far less likely is generous.