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Old Apr 11, 14, 2:33 pm   -   Wikipost
FlyerTalk Forums Thread Wiki: MH370 KUL-PEK Missing 8 Mar 2014: now Search & Recovery [PLEASE SEE WIKI]
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Please note: Insensitive or attacking posts, discussion about other posters and their motives, OMNI conspiracy theories, ad hominem, etc. will be summarily deleted. Please follow the TOS when discussing this tragedy: essentially, "These matters are always personal and should be treated with respect." Family members and other affected parties may be following this thread. Gross speculation and the rumors that are apt to be spread initially are not helpful to them or to us.

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MH370 Discussion and Speculation Thread is now open to keep this thread focused on confirmed news and known facts, and to allow folks to discuss their ideas about what might have happened

Archived older posts:

MH 370 KUL-PEK Missing: 8 - 15 Mar 2014 UTC - ARCHIVE WEEK #1

MH 370 KUL-PEK Missing: 15 - 21 Mar 2014 UTC - ARCHIVE WEEK #2

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS / FAQ has been inserted into Post #1 of this thread.

Malaysia Airlines has provided the following contact numbers for passengers' families: +603 7884 1234 (Kuala Lumpur) or +8610 6437 6249 (Beijing)

This thread now begins with posts made after 0536 UTC 22 March 2014..

N.B. Please do not alter the above message.

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Please report all times in UTC - Coordinated Universal Time (GMT - Greenwich Mean Time, Z - Zulu time) in order to
avoid confusion caused by complex time zone boundaries in the incident area.

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SUMMARY: MH370 departed Kuala Lumpur for Beijing with 227 passengers and 12 crew early morning March 8 2014. After what appeared to be a normal departure, a handoff to Vietnamese ATC was not finalized - communications and secondary radar data no longer were transmitted. The aircraft has been assumed to fly on for 7 hours on an initially circuitous route and to have been lost at sea in the southern Indian Ocean, 1,500 mi / 2,500 km sw of Perth.

No operating theory has been put forth that provides a probable explanation of who has flown the aircraft nor for what possible purpose as of 27 March. Link to BBC written and video summary of the flight of MH370.
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LATEST NEWS

In reverse chronological order:

*All times regarding activities within the search area are expressed in Australian Western Standard Time (AWST). Please note all times are approximate.

Friday, 11 April 2014 - pm AWST (JACC)

The Chief Coordinator of the Joint Agency Coordination Centre, Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston (Ret'd), said an initial assessment of the possible signal detected by a RAAF AP-3C Orion aircraft yesterday afternoon has been determined as not related to an aircraft underwater locator beacon.

Friday, 11 April 2014 (BBC and other sources)

Australian leader Tony Abbott says authorities are confident that signals heard in the Indian Ocean are coming from the "black box" flight recorders of the missing Malaysia Airlines plane. Link

Thursday, 10 April 2014 - pm AWST (JACC)

The Chief Coordinator of the Joint Agency Coordination Centre, Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston (Ret'd), has confirmed that whilst conducting an acoustic search this afternoon a RAAF AP-3C Orion aircraft has detected a possible signal in the vicinity of the Australian Defence Vessel Ocean Shield.

"The acoustic data will require further analysis overnight but shows potential of being from a man-made source," Air Chief Marshal Houston (Ret'd) said.

"I will provide a further update if, and when, further information becomes available."



Shape of ocean floor / Profile of sea bed between signals (2 and 1) - BBC


Wednesday, 9 April 2014 (BBC)

An Australian vessel heard the signals again on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Signals heard earlier had also been further analysed by experts who concluded they were from "specific electronic equipment".

Experts at the Australian Joint Acoustic Analysis Centre had also analysed the first two signals heard over the weekend.

Their analysis showed that a "stable, distinct and clear signal" was detected. Experts had therefore assessed that it was not of natural origin and was likely from specific electronic equipment.

Wednesday, 9 April 2014—am AWST (JACC)

Up to 11 military aircraft, four civil aircraft and 14 ships will assist in today's search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

Today AMSA has planned a search area of about 75,423 square kilometres.

The centre of the search area is approximately 2261 kilometres north west of Perth.

A weak front is moving in from the south east, expected to bring scattered showers.

The underwater search continues today, with ADV Ocean Shield at the northern end of the defined search area, and Chinese ship Haixun 01 and HMS Echo at the southern end.

Tuesday, 8 April 2014—am AWST (JACC)

Up to eleven military planes, three civil planes and 14 ships will assist in today's search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

AMSA has directed the search of one large search area today of approximately 77,580 square kilometres, 2268 kilometres north west of Perth.

Good weather is expected for searching throughout the day.

The underwater search continues, with ADV Ocean Shield at the northern end of the defined search area, and Chinese ship Haixun 01 and HMS Echo at the southern end.

Monday, 7 April 2014

An Australian military vessel has detected signals consistent with those emitted by an aircraft black box, indicating a potential breakthrough in the search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

Two separate signals have been detected by Australian Defence Vessel Ocean Shield in the northern part of the search area.

In what he called "a most promising lead", Air Chief Marshal (ret) Angus Houston revealed that "the pinger locator has detected signals consistent with those emitted by aircraft black boxes". (Sydney Morning Herald, and others)

Monday, 7 April 2014—am AWST (JACC)

Up to nine military planes, three civil planes and 14 ships will assist in today's search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

The search area is expected to be approximately 234,000 square kilometres.

Good weather is expected throughout the day with showers in the afternoon although this is not expected to affect the search.

ADV Ocean Shield is continuing investigations in its own area.

HMS Echo is en route to assist the Chinese vessel Haixun 01, which detected pulse signals in the Indian Ocean.

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau continues to refine the area where the aircraft entered the water based on continuing ground-breaking and multi-disciplinary technical analysis of satellite communication and aircraft performance, passed from the international air crash investigative team comprising analysts from Malaysia, the United States, the UK, China and Australia.

Quote:
Retired Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston (JACC dirrector): "This is an important and encouraging lead". BBC Video.
Sunday, 6 April 2014—am AWST(JACC)

Up to 10 military planes, 2 civil planes and 13 ships will assist in Sunday's search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) has three separate search areas planned for today about 2,000 kilometres north west of Perth, which total approximately 216,000 square kilometres.

Weather in the search area is expected to be good with a cloud base of 2,500 feet and visibility greater than 10 kilometres.

Reports overnight that the Chinese ship, Haixun 01, has detected electronic pulse signals in the Indian Ocean related to MH370 cannot be verified at this point in time.

Saturday 5 April 2014:

The Chinese maritime patrol ship Haixun 01 has picked up a 37.5 kHz pulse signal, according to Chinese media. Though there is no evidence it is from the MH370 "black box", the frequency is the same as used by fight recorders. (Xinhuanet, others)

5 April 2014—am - (JACC)

~10 military planes, three civil jets and 11 ships participated in today's search. ADV Ocean Shield and HMS Echo continued underwater search operations searching with TPL-25 towed pinger locator.

Weather was fair, with possible showers.

Friday 4 April 2014—JACC

Up to 10 military planes, four civil jets and nine ships participated in today's search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370. One civil aircraft operated to provide communications relay.

The weather was is fair, with visibility approximately 10 kilometres and a cloud base between 1000 and 2000 feet.

Two ships, the HMAS Ocean Shield and HMS Echo, towed TPL-25 "towed pinger locators" to search for the "black box" 37.5 kHz signal; the "black box" (Flight Data and Cockpit Voice Recorder assembly) is powered for approximately 30 days.

Thursday 3 April 2014—am JACC

Up to eight planes (one dropping marker buoys) and nine ships were deployed on the SAR mission, an area of about 223,000 square kilometres, 1680 kilometres west north-west of Perth. Weather fair, with visibility approximately 10 kilometres, however the southern area may experience some isolated showers. No new findings today.

Wednesday, 2 April 2014 - JACC

Up to ten planes (one providing relay services) and nine ships will assist in today's search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370. AMSA search area about 221,000 square kilometres,1504 kilometres North West of Perth.

British nuclear-powered Trafalgar class submarine HMS Tireless , with 138 crew including 18 officers, has joined the hunt for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370; the UK MOD has said it would assist in searchng for the "black box". (BBC)

Monday, 31 March: (AMSA Update #31, 8.00am (AEDT) 0000 UTC

10 aircraft searching, no notable results. The ADV Ocean Shield was scheduled to depart from Perth today. It has now been fitted with a black box detector and an autonomous underwater vehicle. Some parts of the search area will experience low cloud and rain throughout the day.

Sunday, March 30, 2014 AEDT: The search activities continued in an area about 1,850 kilometres west of Perth, focused on an area of about 319,000 square kilometres. Eight aircraft were involved in today’s search.

Ten ships arrived or were on station today: HMAS Success, the Chinese Maritime Safety Administration ship Haixun 01, China Rescue and Salvage Bureau ship Nan Hai Jiu, and the Chinese Navy vessel Jinggang Shan.All ships in the search area were tasked to locate and identify the objects sighted by aircraft over the past two days.

Weather in the search area included light showers and low cloud, though search operations are expected to continue.

AMSA Update #28, 30 March 2014: 0645(AEDT)

Debris spotted and identified by ship turned out to be fishing debris - a fishing vessel is missing and the search for the vessel has now been discontinued after finding the debris. - AMSA

Saturday, March 29, HMAS Success, the Chinese Maritime Administration patrol ship, Haixun 01, PLAN vessel Jinggangshan (carrying two helicopters) were active Saturday; the later specifically is searching for debris, oil slicks, lifejackets, etc. Eight aircraft were also launched today. A IL-76 from China spotted some small colourful debris (orange, white and red), dropped a marker and left the debris to be checked by ship - the debris, recovered and checked by Haixun 01, was not related to MH370. Weather began nicely but has been deteriorating today; the search day is over now. (National News Agency of Malaysia, BBC and others.)

The ANZAC class frigate HMAS Toowoomba left Perth this evening and is due to arrive in the search area in about three days.

Friday March 28 local time end of search day: Ten aircraft searched an area of nearly 100,000 sq mi / 256,000 sq km today. Five aircraft spotted debris in the new search area; another aircraft spotted debris 546 km away.
AMSA announcement PDF

The search area has shifted northeastward ~1,100 km / 700 mi based on the theory the aircraft was flying faster than previously believed (skewing the imputed flight path and decreasing range based on available fuel). The new search area is approximately 123,127 sq mi / 319,000 sq km and around 1,150 mi / 1,850 km west of Perth. Satellites are being redeployed to survey the new search area. (Aviation Herald, Malay Mail online and others; BBC article link)

The Malaysian government is expected to appoint an international panel on aviation security along with a parliament select committee to probe overall airline safety... an official said in Kuala Lumpur on Saturday (29 Mar 2014).

Tuesday, 26 Mar, search activities were halted by Sea State 7; resumed Wednesday, Thursday 28 Mar again saw aircraft withdrawn from search activities.

If potential debris is spotted by satellite, further identification must be done by aircraft, and then recovered by ships for analysis. If debris proves positive from MH370, further analysis must determine drift distance and angle to a possible crash site. This all depends on the weather holding as well, though at least the search is no longer focused in the "Roaring Forties".

Soon, a US Navy Towed Pinger Locator will be towed by the HMAS Ocean Shield to try to detect "pings" from the aircraft's "black box", which is actually orange and consists of the Cockpit Voice Recorder (two hour loop) and Flight Data Recorder (25 hours continuous).
● BBC page on "black box" link
● BBC video "black box" search link.

If air and sea search fails, or further narrowing of the search area is required, sonar will be deployed and used. Support and research vessels, some of them with sonar and one with the U. S. autonomous underwater Bluefin 21, will then try to find the wreck amongst the sea bottom topography.
BBC sonar search video link.

Information reveals that Malaysia Airlines chose not to add an upgrade to aircraft communications ("Swift") that could have continually transmitted aircraft data even with ACARS shut down. Rather than pay the cost of USD $10.90 per flight, MH opted to download the data to a USB thumb drive after the end of a flight, according to various sources. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...f19_story.html

Monday, 24 March, Malaysian prime minister announced that new satellite data showed that flight MH370 crashed into the Indian Ocean. In a brief statement he said: "It is with deep sadness and regret that I must inform you that... flight MH370 ended in the southern Indian Ocean." The ongoing multinational search operation would continue as they seek answers to the questions which remain.

Partners Inmarsat and SITA AIRCOM, UK and US aviation safety and security officials have determined MH370 may have flown up to seven hours beyond the point of last radar location; MH370 apparently broadcast automated hourly engine maintenance code "pings" received by satellite operator Inmarsat.

New satellite analysis techniques developed by British firm Inmarsat and the UK's Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB) have "concluded that MH370 flew along the southern corridor, and that its last position was in the middle of the Indian Ocean", said Malaysian PM Najib Razak.

"This is a remote location, far from any possible landing sites. It is therefore with deep sadness and regret that I must inform you that, according to this new data, flight MH370 ended in the southern Indian Ocean."

Debris is being searched for, but the USA is sending a Towed Pinger Locator towed sled equipped to find "pingers" such as the "black box" pinger, which is designed to be powered for 25 - 30 days.

A number of aircraft, including four long range commercial planes, three RAAF and one RNZAF P-3 Orion anti-submarine surveillance aircraft, one USN P8 Poseidon, two Chinese IL-76 and two JASDF P-3 Orion aircraft are searching, joined by a Korean (ROKAF) P-3 Orion and C-130H. The ASW aircraft have observation ports for observers, Magnetic Anomaly Detector gear and can deploy various sonobuoys, etc.

Chinese, British and Australian naval ships have joined Australian supply ship HMAS Success, including China's ice-breaking Xuě Lóng (Snow Dragon) research vessel, (involved in the recent Antarctic rescue of the MV Akademik Shokalskiy) and three Chinese PLAN warships QianDaoHu, KunLunShan and Haikou, as well as merchant ship Zhonghai Shaohua, are participants as well. The U.K. is sending HMS Echo to join the search (has departed the Maldives), China is sending more vessels.

The HMAS Ocean Shield will be fitted on 28 Mar with the US "TPL" (Towed Pinger Locator) and "...is expected to reach the search area by 5 April, giving it only two days before the pinger's batteries possibly start to fade at 30 days."

The US is sending a UUV (autonomous unmanned underwater vehicle) Bluefin-21, designed by Bluefin Robotics, equipped with side-scanning sonar and a "multi-beam echo sounder" which can examine underwater objects in detail and operate in depths of up to 4,500 metres (14,700 ft) (BBC).

Malaysia has asked the FBI to help recover data it said was deleted from a home flight simulator belonging to the plane's chief pilot, Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah, but otherwise no evidence has emerged to implicate him or the crew. FBI announced on 26 Mar a couple of more days are needed, but so far they have found no forensic evidence against Capt. Zaharie.
Last updated: Friday April 11 0915 UTC / 1715 AWST (changes made since 00:01 Thursday UTC are in highlighted text) or indigo.
Please continue to use indigo text to highlight your changes until the next maintenance period (after ~00:01 UTC Friday).

Summary of events in the FAQ (Post #1) and what we think we know as of 14 Mar, 1727 UTC in this post.

EXTERNAL SOURCES


Aviation Herald — possibly the best and most objective summary in general, latest updates are highlighted in yellow — last updated on Sunday, Apr 6, 2014 at 11:40 UTC.

MH370 Flight Incident - official announcements by Malaysia Airlines

BBC tabbed pages with newest news of the MH370 incident

BBC: Ten Theories of MH370's Disappearance

Malaysian Prime Minister's statement that MH370 ended in the southern Indian Ocean, March 24, 2014 Youtube video

Live updates (Yahoo News Singapore)

Streaming news (WSJ)

Reuters graphics: story, search and emergency

How a pilot deals with an emergency. (BBC, Capt. Philip Riddell <spelling in conflict with BBC>)

Summary of events, known information and technical background Airliners.net

THREAD SUMMARY
Please Edit and Update as Needed! Please Use Indigo Text to Highlight Changes!

NOTE: While links to relevant and reasonably reliable news sources are welcome, please take a few minutes to scroll back a couple dozen posts to make sure a similar story hasn't already been posted. There have been many well-meaning posters eager to share “breaking news” that ends up having been posted by others hours before. Thanks for helping us to avoid redundancy and repetition!

Time Frame Confusion

Sources may appear to be reporting conflicting timeframes for various stages of the incident. However, this is likely due to confusion about time zone changes between Malaysia (last ATC contact) and Vietnam (next ATC contact) - see time zone map here for boundaries. Please report times in UTC/GMT wherever possible.

SAR / Search and Rescue Recovery Operations Investigation

NOTE: Discussion of opinions and perspectives on SAR costs and timeliness, which involves coordination of 26 nations' civil and military authorities, is beyond the scope of this thread. Users have been advised to shift such discussion to OMNI - see post #2047. Thanks for your cooperation.

Reports indicate latest satellite ping around 0811 MYT (0011 GMT/UTC/Zulu), or nearly 7 hours after contact was lost.

Boeing and Rolls Royce have teams on site; the NTSB (USA) and UK AAIB are involved due to US and UK manufacture of aircraft and engines, France's BEA due to AF447 similarities and other resources are likely to be invited to assist. The U. S. FBI has become involved in investigating the crew, passengers and ground staff.

Reports that the aircraft climbed to 45,000 feet, above its service ceiling, and as low as 5,000 ft remain unverified. More here and in posts #3894 on.

Malaysia Airlines has issued a statement that the shipment of lithium-ion batteries was in compliance with the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and the International Air Transport Association (IATA) requirements, where it is classified as "non-dangerous goods".

Disproven Reports to Date

Early reports that the plane had landed in Nanming, Vietnam or Nanning, China, have been disclaimed by Chinese authorities and MH leadership.

All reports of possible aircraft debris, up to and including a possible debris field off the southeast coast of Vietnam, China SASTIND satellite imagery from 9 Mar debris reported 105.63 east longitude, 6.7 north latitude investigated 12 Mar have been discredited. The latter is now "a mistake", according to SASTIND. Read more here.

Possible fuel slicks identified early on have been tested and determined NOT to be aircraft fuel.

Various life rafts found in the SAR ops area have been unrelated to the missing aircraft. See one example at this post.

Reports of another pilot contacting MH370 have been discredited.

Reports of passenger cell phones still ringing when called are almost certainly an artifact of international telephony - see explanation by one FTer at post #1832.

All claimed ground observations of the aircraft (Malaysia, Vietnam oil platform, etc.) data are unverified at this time.

Beware of data from sites like FlightRadar24, FlightAware, etc. These data are not entirely reliable, as they are synthesized; erroneous readings may be present on some sites. The aircraft could not climb to 49,500 feet as some sites may indicate, as this is considerably above the aircraft's design ceiling.

Authorities deny that five other passengers checked in for the flight, but did not board, stating the pax were actually no-shows who never checked in, and that no baggage was loaded for these five pax. Four standby passengers were accommodated.

Reports of seismic readings being possibly related to the aircraft crashing into seafloor have been described by experts as improbable. USGS records a natural earthquake off the west coast of Sumatra - info here

Other speculation (EMP, shot down, etc.) has been mentioned in the thread but currently has no basis, and is not appropriate for this thread. Please observe the moderator note at the beginning of this wiki.

Timeline/Facts (Please see FAQ / Post #1)

NOTE: flight number MH370/371 will be renumbered MH318/319 effective 14 March 2014
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!!! REMINDER !!!

This thread is about the loss of MH370. In depth discussion of unrelated topics — geopolitics, passport theft, aviation security, airport security procedures, etc. — belongs in other fora. A few include:

OMNI/PR: Discussion of perspectives on politics and religion, including geopolitics and terrorism (requires 180 days on FT and 180 constructive posts prior to admission)

Travel Safety/Security: Checkpoints and Borders Policy Debate

Travel Safety/Security: Practical Travel Safety Issues for those discussing travel safety and security issues because they are planning a trip soon.

TravelBuzz: TravelBuzz for those wishing to discuss the relative safety of a specific aircraft - e.g. Boeing 777.

We have a number of Destination fora to discuss various aspects of destination travel (including airports, airport connections, etc.)
MAPS, IMAGERY, GRAPHICS

Please try to re-size your pictures to fit the normal width. We have had several folks (particularly, but not exclusively, those on mobile devices) request that the size of graphics be "normal."


Area of debris sightings and search
The original map was posted on BBC website but is too large to post here.


Ministry of Transport Malaysia:
INFORMATION PROVIDED TO MH370 INVESTIGATION BY UK AIR ACCIDENTS INVESTIGATION BRANCH (AAIB)



This diagram shows the Doppler contributions to the burst frequency offset.


Blue line: the burst frequency offset measured at the ground station for MH370.

Green line: is the predicted burst frequency offset for the southern route, which over the last 6 handshakes show close correlation with the measured values for MH370.

Red line: predicted burst frequency offset for northern route (which over last 6 ACARS - Inmarsat "handshakes" does not correlate with the measured values for MH370).


Archived maps

Map with calculated tracks (contribution by Reason077)
Nrg800 map showing runways within range, line of possible ping transmission and range limit from last radio contact.
See posts #4145 and #4163 for more info.


ADV Ocean Shield towed pinger locator detections - JACC

Signals detected by Chinese (5 April) and Australians (6 April) - BBC
Locations where signals were detected
Search area and location where possible signal detected, 6 April 2014 (BBC)
Search area and location where possible signal detected, 5 April 2014 (BBC)
Search area, 4 April 2014 (BBC)
Searach area, 2 April 2014 (BBC)
Search area, 1 April 2014 (BBC)
Search area, 30 March 2014 (BBC)
New search area, 28 March 2014 (BBC)
Detailed map of area of debris sightings and in original Indo-Australian search area (BBC)
Area of debris sightings
How big is the search area?
BBC map of search zones

BBC area and key events map
BBC possible final aircraft track map

NOTE: SEE FAQ (POST #1 - click to pop up in separate window) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS AND REPLIES, OTHER LINKS TO RESOURCES AND PREVIOUS GRAPHICS FROM THIS WIKI.

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Old Mar 27, 14, 6:03 pm   #121
 
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On March 26, Xuelong, Zhonghai Shaohua and Chinese Naval vessels Qiandaohu, Kunlunshan and Haikou arrived at the waters where floating objects possibly related to the missing aircraft were spotted by the Australian side. They have begun searching the area assigned by Australia to China. China will integrate its aircrafts and vessels, enhance their coordination so as to develop synergies and play an important role in the search operation in relevant waters.

Haixun 01, South China Sea Rescue 115, East China Sea Rescue 101 are on their way to the same waters.

Haixun 31, South China Sea Rescue 101 and Chinese Naval vessels Jinggangshan and Yongxingdao are still searching in the eastern part of the southern Indian Ocean.

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Originally Posted by JDiver View Post
Success is on station, I wasn't sure Xuě Lóng (Snow Dragon) had arrived on station yet. Of course with the rotten weather nobody did much Tuesday or Thursday, unfortunately. Have the PLANs arrived on station yet? Also to be joined by a merchant ship, Zhonghai Shaohua. I know Tuesday ships moved south due to a Sea State 7 condition, and they were debating pulling them out earlier Thursday. A lot of movement.

You are correct. HMAS Success is a supply ship:

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Old Mar 27, 14, 6:08 pm   #122
 
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Originally Posted by jfinsocal View Post
What parts of an airplane would be buoyant after being churned about in 10+ ft. seas for nearly three weeks? I wouldn't think that there would be very much that wouldn't sink - maybe seat cushions and anything with entrapped air but what would that be? I'd think that anything with metal (aluminum has a specific gravity of 2.7) woudn't float for long in that environment.
The rudder, elevators, maybe flaps, possibly part of either wing, but aside from that, smaller non-metallic debris such as seat cushions (which are flotation devices), insulation, luggage, maybe a life raft got ejected in the crash. Most of the wreckage is on the bottom.
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Old Mar 27, 14, 8:07 pm   #123
 
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Originally Posted by JDiver View Post
I keep thinking "$10.90 for Swift, we'd be able to narrow the search area considerably - and know the path and aircraft conditions". Maybe Swift will be mandatory for at least longhauls some day soon?
Does anyone know if SWIFT would have stayed operation without ACARS are they on different busses, different control mechanisms etc?
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Old Mar 27, 14, 8:40 pm   #124
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Originally Posted by alex_b View Post
Does anyone know if SWIFT would have stayed operation without ACARS are they on different busses, different control mechanisms etc?
The information available states if ACARS had been turned off, Swift would have continued to function - so, I don't know, but separate busses are indicated. (Some aspect of ACARS was still powered - the "handshake" signal was both received and returned.)
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Last edited by JDiver; Mar 27, 14 at 8:53 pm.
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Old Mar 27, 14, 8:41 pm   #125
 
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Old Mar 27, 14, 11:27 pm   #126
 
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Maybe someone can help me understand this latest update - where they have changed the search area based on new radar data.

I'm at a loss for this - over the last two days, we've had satellite images with hundreds of debris items of some type, but the weather hasn't been cooperative. Certainly they've plotted their best guess as to where the debris would most likely have gone since the satellite images. And then now they say they are changing the search area based on radar data, which in essence means they are not going to look at where the debris field spotted by the various satellites was?
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Old Mar 27, 14, 11:29 pm   #127
 
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Originally Posted by QF WP View Post
This is really strange...

- the update from AMSA stated "today’s search will shift to an area 1,100 kilometres to the north east based on updated advice provided by the international investigation team in Malaysia."

- during the AMSA press conference they quoted new assumptions based on the fact MH370 was travelling FASTER than they initially assumed

- previously published site map was showing likely impact area moves further to the north-east based on SLOWER assumed speed for MH370 - see http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/image..._250314_v2.gif

This is conflicting information isn't it?
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Old Mar 27, 14, 11:56 pm   #128
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Originally Posted by M@rcoPolo View Post
This is really strange...

- the update from AMSA stated "today’s search will shift to an area 1,100 kilometres to the north east based on updated advice provided by the international investigation team in Malaysia."

- during the AMSA press conference they quoted new assumptions based on the fact MH370 was travelling FASTER than they initially assumed

- previously published site map was showing likely impact area moves further to the north-east based on SLOWER assumed speed for MH370 - see http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/image..._250314_v2.gif

This is conflicting information isn't it?
Travelling faster means higher fuel consumption, therefore the aircraft can not travel as far as had been assumed previously; the "ping" calculation was based in part on Doppler shift, meaning the higher speed also skews the line of assumed flight direction.

Satellite photos of debris are meaningless if the debris is away from an improved search area. Debris has to be checked further by aircraft, verified by marine resources (ships) most likely - and then a line of drift and distance have to be calculated for the many days debris has been moved by winds, currents, etc. to determine a likely area of impact.

Then and only then, can they accurately begin to search for the Flight Data and Cockpit Voice Recorders, main wreckage, etc.

Quote:
The new search area is approximately 123,127 sq mi / 319,000 sq kms and around 1,150 mi / 1,850 km west of Perth. Satellites are being redeployed to survey the new search area. (wiki, sourced BBC, Aviation Herald, Malay Mail online, etc.)
This is still a huge area, and floating debris is likely some distance from the actual impact area.
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Old Mar 27, 14, 11:57 pm   #129
 
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If the plane was moving FASTER than they previously thought, then wouldn't the search area move south instead of north? It's not as if the plane ran out of fuel and stopped flying sooner than we thought-as we have known for a while the plane kept going until at least 8:11am. Perhaps I am missing something.
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Old Mar 28, 14, 12:05 am   #130
 
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Color me also confused. I thought we knew exactly where the plane was at the time of the last ping(8:11am) already and that the only uncertainty is what the plane did after that time.
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Old Mar 28, 14, 12:21 am   #131
 
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Originally Posted by Versions View Post
If the plane was moving FASTER than they previously thought, then wouldn't the search area move south instead of north? It's not as if the plane ran out of fuel and stopped flying sooner than we thought-as we have known for a while the plane kept going until at least 8:11am. Perhaps I am missing something.
Yes that's exactly where I was coming from... now AMSA just published this map showing today's search area and assumptions or MH370 routes based on speed...

https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws....ch_handout.pdf

Most likely they worked out MH370 speed during the FIRST part of its journey (still covered by Malaysian & Thai radars) was FASTER than they previously assumed and therefore consumed more fuel - also the climb to 45,000 feet and the segment flew at lower altitude must have contributed to higher fuel consumption - therefore the only possibility for the plane to stay in the air until the last ping was to fly SLOWER in the second part of the route (south) putting it further up north (being slower) and closer to the Australian coast (due to the arc traced using the last satellite ping).

This is the only sensible deduction based on the info released today as far as I'm concerned...
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Old Mar 28, 14, 12:35 am   #132
 
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Originally Posted by TJtv View Post
Color me also confused. I thought we knew exactly where the plane was at the time of the last ping(8:11am) already and that the only uncertainty is what the plane did after that time.
No, they don't know exactly where the aircraft was, not even close. The calculations done by Inmarsat necessarily had to make assumptions about the speed and altitude of the aircraft. Based on an assumed altitude, they produced tracks for different speeds and altitudes, two of which are shown on the map, one for 400 kts and the other for 450 kts. If the aircraft was flying higher or lower than their assumption, the tracks are incorrect. Additionally, they don't know how much longer the aircraft flew after the last ping, although they are apparently making an assumption that the last ping, which was incomplete, occurred at the time the aircraft was going down. Note also that they had to make some assumptions about how many hours of fuel were remaining when the aircraft started on the southerly heading. Depending on how high the aircraft ascended, it wasted some the fuel that would have normally been used for cruising. So you can see why the search area is not a neat little box with a red ribbon around it.

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Originally Posted by Versions View Post
If the plane was moving FASTER than they previously thought, then wouldn't the search area move south instead of north? It's not as if the plane ran out of fuel and stopped flying sooner than we thought-as we have known for a while the plane kept going until at least 8:11am. Perhaps I am missing something.
I agree, this is strange. The argument is that the faster the aircraft flew, the less range it would have. However, as you point out, the time of the pings is known so the aircraft must have been airborne until at least the time of the last ping. If it was travelling more quickly, you'd think it would have gone farther.
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Last edited by cblaisd; Mar 28, 14 at 2:04 am. Reason: merged poster's two consecutive posts
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Old Mar 28, 14, 12:41 am   #133
 
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Originally Posted by bimmerdriver View Post
I agree, this is strange. The argument is that the faster the aircraft flew, the less range it would have. However, as you point out, the time of the pings is known so the aircraft must have been airborne until at least the time of the last ping. If it was travelling more quickly, you'd think it would have gone farther.
But let's not forget to factor in wind and currents.
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Old Mar 28, 14, 12:42 am   #134
 
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Originally Posted by JDiver View Post
Travelling faster means higher fuel consumption, therefore the aircraft can not travel as far as had been assumed previously; the "ping" calculation was based in part on Doppler shift, meaning the higher speed also skews the line of assumed flight direction.

Satellite photos of debris are meaningless if the debris is away from an improved search area. Debris has to be checked further by aircraft, verified by marine resources (ships) most likely - and then a line of drift and distance have to be calculated for the many days debris has been moved by winds, currents, etc. to determine a likely area of impact.

Then and only then, can they accurately begin to search for the Flight Data and Cockpit Voice Recorders, main wreckage, etc.



This is still a huge area, and floating debris is likely some distance from the actual impact area.
Considering how difficult it has been to locate and recover confirmed evidence of the aircraft, I don't see why they aren't focusing on locating the debris that has been seen by the French and thai satellites. That seems to be more concrete than a speculation that the aircraft was flying on a different track.
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Old Mar 28, 14, 1:23 am   #135
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M@rcoPolo View Post
Most likely they worked out MH370 speed during the FIRST part of its journey (still covered by Malaysian & Thai radars) was FASTER than they previously assumed and therefore consumed more fuel - also the climb to 45,000 feet and the segment flew at lower altitude must have contributed to higher fuel consumption - therefore the only possibility for the plane to stay in the air until the last ping was to fly SLOWER in the second part of the route (south) putting it further up north (being slower) and closer to the Australian coast (due to the arc traced using the last satellite ping).

This is the only sensible deduction based on the info released today as far as I'm concerned...
It's also consistent with the trend of the map in the Wiki (second under "Maps, imagery, graphics") - the one that shows the whole region with two tracks. Note that the 400 knots track (yellow) gives a endpoint north and east of the endpoint for the 450s knot (blue) track. It looks like those were two extremes to give the boundaries of the problem, but this new evidence suggests the speed was closer to 400 knots than 450.
.
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Last edited by RadioGirl; Mar 28, 14 at 1:43 am. Reason: Okay, done re-thinking.
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