365RoadWarrior

I'm trying to book some travel for friends. Right now, airfares are good to do what they want - SFO->SYD->AUK->NOU->SFO

But the hotel prices are high. Looking at Sydney, a particular hotel available in June for AU$160 rises to AU$560 in late-October/early-November if booked today. From what I've read, Oct/Nov is still ahead of peak season.

I'm inclined to book the flights now and get some refundable hotel reservations with the hope/expectation that hotel rates will drop - not to AU$160, but maybe $AU300. Airfares would not be refundable.

Am I nuts? Irrationally optimistic? And yes, I've been looking at a half dozen hotels, so it's not just one I'm locked into. I just haven't been able to find historic rates,

(Same question for Auckland and Noumea, but those are cheaper and less important.)

Thanks.

JClasstraveller

There may be a conference in town at that time in which case prices will go up.

Spring's a good time to visit Sydney. Not too hot, not too cold. June is winter and cold. Demand (and prices) go up accordingly.

365RoadWarrior

Thank you, JClassTraveller. The June versus November price differential struck me as high (compared to what I'm accustomed to). Then again, I don't travel to desireable cities. ;-)

I'm playing around with dates a little bit, but it does look like broad swaths of time and across a dozen hotels. It sounds like it's probably better that I don't count on falling hotel rates as the date approaches.

Mwenenzi

Interesting route

365RoadWarrior

Well, I shortcutted things a bit. The Noumea to SFO isn't a direct flight, but you get the idea

jpatokal

I think Mwenenzi was hinting that your airport codes are a little off there, unless you really are detouring via Alakanuk, Alaska (AUK) instead of Auckland, NZ (AKL)

365RoadWarrior

No wonder the airfare was so high!

number_6

Do you have date or hotel flexibility? Chances are that particular hotel won't be cheaper later, but other hotels of similar quality might be. AUD 160 is very low for Sydney unless you are talking 3-star, but doubling of rates for high occupancy days is not unusual. This can happen at some surprisingly modest hotels because they have contracts with the cruise lines, and a cruise ship fills much of the hotel. In these cases going next-door to a better hotel can cost half as much sometimes

365RoadWarrior

I've been checking across 11 hotels, 3-4 star properties. I'm checking five day stays with arrival dates beginning 26 October through 7 November. AUD160 for a Hilton or equivalent (today) did seem low, but I was just interested in whether the 250% "bump" for October/November was usual or sustainable - whether rates might reasonably be expected to decline, even temporarily, between now and travel date. Ultimately, I know it's a matter of "You take your chances..."

Hotel rates aside, at least I can assure my would-be visitor friends that "the locals" (as represented here) are helpful and friendly types.

cavemanzk

I'd say if you seeing the Hilton for $160/night you're getting a pretty good deal, everytime I've gone to stay there it's been $220 upwards.

Do your friends need to stay in the CBD? are they going to have an rental car?

365RoadWarrior

Thanks again for all the thoughts and tips. Anxious to make a decision and settle things without praying for lower rates, my friends decided to go to Paris instead. (They hadn't been there either.) The airfare was a lot cheaper and the hotels were half the price. I think they'd imagines that Sydney would be cheaper than Paris; money was a constraint.

Antonio8069

IMO, the issue in Auckland is different. There is a real paucity of quality hotels in the CBD & pricing is driven by the high cost of real estate. For example, Sheraton pulled out & was replaced by Langham which is in the $200 range. The Crowne Plaza should be available on points (IHG). Ditto for the Hilton.

Cheaper alternatives are available via www.bbh.co.nz For example:

www.verandahs.co.nz

Otherwise, my advice is to venture out of the city and be prepared to rent a car to do so.

PsiFighter37

If possible, make your bookings in NZD and not payable until you are at the hotel. NZD (IMO) is likely to depreciate even further as the central bank lowers interest rates. It's already at multi-year lows...hold off on paying now and you'll save even more!