mileage runs don't make any sense anymore
Nov 16, 2010, 11:23 am
#1
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: NYC (formerly BOS/DCA)
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Posts: 60,745
mileage runs don't make any sense anymore
And I'll explain why. And I apologize in advance for this mini-rant.
First, most people (rightly in my view) value their miles at about a cent per mile. Given the devaluations we've seen over the years, it simply is true that miles aren't worth a whole lot. Thus when redeeming miles people will tend to be rational about it: do the cost of the miles redeemed outweigh the cost of the same flight and cabin if purchased? This makes sense.
Yet when it comes to earning miles, say through a mileage run, folks are not being rational. We see mileage runs listed in the forum in the range of 3-4 cpm, on average. Sometimes we see ridiculous fares like 6cpm. Thus people are spending money and time earning miles at 3-6cpm and redeeming them at a rate of 1cpm. Something is not adding up, right?
Folks will often respond that the elite status is worth all of this. And maybe to some it is. Only you can be the judge of whether sitting on an airplane and spending money to do so is beneficial enough to your future sitting on an airplane. But I would argue that for many travelers the airlines have you hooked. They got you on status, they tie to your ego, and you don't want to lose it. You don't want to lose it so bad that you do ridiculous things like spend 6 cents on a mile and sit in coach on precious days off to do it. Is it really all worth it?
Another common retort is that "the miles let me buy expensive $5k business class seats." And that's true. But those miles are only worth that much to you if you would have paid that amount for the seat in the first place. Yes, you get $5k of "value" from the miles but there is no way those miles are worth $5k to you if you had no intention of spending that amount of money in the first place.
Finally, given the devaluation of status (see the MP "enhancements" for 2011, for instance), it is getting harder and harder to justify MRing for status, is it not? At what point will status be so watered down that you realize the game just isn't worth it anymore?
In closing I would like to suggest that the game is over. The days of $200 fares to Europe where you could earn miles at the same cost of redeeming them is over. But we haven't updated ourselves to this new reality. Instead we spend money chasing miles like it's 2000 all over. We need to learn. We need to update our expectations. We need to be more rational.
Thoughts?
First, most people (rightly in my view) value their miles at about a cent per mile. Given the devaluations we've seen over the years, it simply is true that miles aren't worth a whole lot. Thus when redeeming miles people will tend to be rational about it: do the cost of the miles redeemed outweigh the cost of the same flight and cabin if purchased? This makes sense.
Yet when it comes to earning miles, say through a mileage run, folks are not being rational. We see mileage runs listed in the forum in the range of 3-4 cpm, on average. Sometimes we see ridiculous fares like 6cpm. Thus people are spending money and time earning miles at 3-6cpm and redeeming them at a rate of 1cpm. Something is not adding up, right?
Folks will often respond that the elite status is worth all of this. And maybe to some it is. Only you can be the judge of whether sitting on an airplane and spending money to do so is beneficial enough to your future sitting on an airplane. But I would argue that for many travelers the airlines have you hooked. They got you on status, they tie to your ego, and you don't want to lose it. You don't want to lose it so bad that you do ridiculous things like spend 6 cents on a mile and sit in coach on precious days off to do it. Is it really all worth it?
Another common retort is that "the miles let me buy expensive $5k business class seats." And that's true. But those miles are only worth that much to you if you would have paid that amount for the seat in the first place. Yes, you get $5k of "value" from the miles but there is no way those miles are worth $5k to you if you had no intention of spending that amount of money in the first place.
Finally, given the devaluation of status (see the MP "enhancements" for 2011, for instance), it is getting harder and harder to justify MRing for status, is it not? At what point will status be so watered down that you realize the game just isn't worth it anymore?
In closing I would like to suggest that the game is over. The days of $200 fares to Europe where you could earn miles at the same cost of redeeming them is over. But we haven't updated ourselves to this new reality. Instead we spend money chasing miles like it's 2000 all over. We need to learn. We need to update our expectations. We need to be more rational.
Thoughts?
Nov 16, 2010, 11:39 am
#2
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: United States
Posts: 184
Mileage Run - Is it worth it?
I think you make all good points - my only question is around the assumption of 1 cpm.
There have been many times where I have used my 25000 or 35000 miles to buy tickets that are worth more than $250 or $350. In most of the cases it has been more than the dollar amount.
As for status - it is difficult to get to the second or the top level status and once you do I can assure you from my personal experience with UA and AA that is it worth the effort.
However I do agree that it is becoming more difficult to find the deals using the miles.
I have to travel because of work and it makes it easier to accumulate miles so going for the mileage run at the end makes sense
There have been many times where I have used my 25000 or 35000 miles to buy tickets that are worth more than $250 or $350. In most of the cases it has been more than the dollar amount.
As for status - it is difficult to get to the second or the top level status and once you do I can assure you from my personal experience with UA and AA that is it worth the effort.
However I do agree that it is becoming more difficult to find the deals using the miles.
I have to travel because of work and it makes it easier to accumulate miles so going for the mileage run at the end makes sense
Nov 16, 2010, 11:40 am
#3
Formerly known as CollegeFlyer
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: JRA
Programs: UA 1K MM, AA PLT, Hyatt Diamond, Marriott Gold, Hertz 5*
Posts: 6,716
Another common retort is that "the miles let me buy expensive $5k business class seats." And that's true. But those miles are only worth that much to you if you would have paid that amount for the seat in the first place. Yes, you get $5k of "value" from the miles but there is no way those miles are worth $5k to you if you had no intention of spending that amount of money in the first place.
That said, I repeat the retort that "Another common retort is that "the miles let me buy expensive $5k business class seats." Except that I change the price to ~$2k or $3k business class seats, because that's what I would have been willing to pay (whether or not UA actually sells C seats for $2k or $3k is irrelevant to my value, per the same reasoning you outlined above). So, for me, 1K status is worth a minimum of $1000 per flight (low-balling it to be conservative) x 6 flights = $6,000. And that's not even counting CR-1s (fewer now that NonePass is contaminating MP), UDU, fee waivers, and the like.
Nov 16, 2010, 11:45 am
#4
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Denver, CO
Programs: UA Premier Exec, DL, HHonors Blue, Starwood Gold, Hertz 5*, Marriott Silver
Posts: 261
I don't think you are far from the mark on this. I have only done a MR when I am sub-3000 from status AND I have planned flights into the next year. If I don't think I'll keep status (DL) then I just stop worrying about it.
When it comes to earning miles so you can fly that $5k business class seat, I'd just as soon do that using other methods like credit card spending. I'm going to buy things anyway so why not maximize THAT instead of flying somewhere for the miles. For me flying has always been about the places I get to see and the experiences at the other end, not about the flight in itself. I enjoyed by business class AF flight to Paris, no doubt, but it was just a means to an ends (a month in France).
We as a larger group are seeking more than miles though. I think a lot of us dream of amazing vacations to far away destinations, but do I really want to fly DEN-SFO-NRT-SIN-NRT-LAX-DEN to make status when I only see Singapore for 20 hours? NO! That isn't a vacation. Some also see this as the next 'keeping up with the <magiciansampras>' and they need to have that status to validate themselves as a frequent flier.
All that said, I do find it fun to help those that want to earn those miles. I just wish it paid!
When it comes to earning miles so you can fly that $5k business class seat, I'd just as soon do that using other methods like credit card spending. I'm going to buy things anyway so why not maximize THAT instead of flying somewhere for the miles. For me flying has always been about the places I get to see and the experiences at the other end, not about the flight in itself. I enjoyed by business class AF flight to Paris, no doubt, but it was just a means to an ends (a month in France).
We as a larger group are seeking more than miles though. I think a lot of us dream of amazing vacations to far away destinations, but do I really want to fly DEN-SFO-NRT-SIN-NRT-LAX-DEN to make status when I only see Singapore for 20 hours? NO! That isn't a vacation. Some also see this as the next 'keeping up with the <magiciansampras>' and they need to have that status to validate themselves as a frequent flier.
All that said, I do find it fun to help those that want to earn those miles. I just wish it paid!
Nov 16, 2010, 11:50 am
#5
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: DC
Programs: DL gold; UA - 1k; AA gold; Marriott Platinum; Hyatt Diamond; SPG gold; Groupon Falcon;
Posts: 747
All of OP is quite true for me.
I just cannot justify it in the current pricing climate, and next year my status will crater. Indeed, my travel patterns shifted so dramatically this year that I'll make UA 2P on segments, not miles. I'll satisfy my travel needs by actually depleting my trove of RDM's. Not a happy thought, but my life might be simpler.
Now, at least for me, the only value to a MR is if I have to top off my account to attain a particular EQM threshhold. No generalized mileage running to be done here.
I just cannot justify it in the current pricing climate, and next year my status will crater. Indeed, my travel patterns shifted so dramatically this year that I'll make UA 2P on segments, not miles. I'll satisfy my travel needs by actually depleting my trove of RDM's. Not a happy thought, but my life might be simpler.
Now, at least for me, the only value to a MR is if I have to top off my account to attain a particular EQM threshhold. No generalized mileage running to be done here.
Nov 16, 2010, 11:52 am
#6
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That said, I repeat the retort that "Another common retort is that "the miles let me buy expensive $5k business class seats." Except that I change the price to ~$2k or $3k business class seats, because that's what I would have been willing to pay (whether or not UA actually sells C seats for $2k or $3k is irrelevant to my value, per the same reasoning you outlined above). So, for me, 1K status is worth a minimum of $1000 per flight (low-balling it to be conservative) x 6 flights = $6,000. And that's not even counting CR-1s (fewer now that NonePass is contaminating MP), UDU, fee waivers, and the like.
Nov 16, 2010, 12:02 pm
#8
Formerly known as CollegeFlyer
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: JRA
Programs: UA 1K MM, AA PLT, Hyatt Diamond, Marriott Gold, Hertz 5*
Posts: 6,716
Fair enough. For someone like you, I think it makes sense. I bet you're fairly atypical though. Most of the folks that I know who do mileage runs wouldn't dare think of spending $2k on a flight in reality. They're cheap .......s, thus the mileage running to begin with.
I don't actually have $1K cash per int'l flight, sitting around to be dropped on an upgrade (rent in NY is freaking expensive, right???), but I do have some cash and some time for MRs. But if I had an extra $1K cash sitting around, I would be willing to spend that marginal $1K to get from Y to C on my way to TPE or wherever (as opposed to spending it on clothes or a slightly bigger apartment or paying off my bloodthirsty law school creditors). And that's what I mean by the SWU having $1K of value for me.
On the other hand, the partner in the corner office next to me who has been AA EXP for a bunch of years and is scheduled to lose it this year, is constantly bemoaning the impending loss of his EXP status to his secretary whenever she books his trips, but I don't think he would consider doing an MR to keep it. When he told his secretary to call our travel desk for advice, they advised her to book him a mileage run, but he's not doing it. He would prefer to moan and groan and lose his status, which I think is typical for most non-FT frequent fliers.
Nov 16, 2010, 12:07 pm
#10
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: SAN
Programs: UA 1MM/1K, HH Diamond
Posts: 6,832
Interesting analysis, magiciansampras.
It seems to me that MRs purely for RDMs have gone the way of the buffalo. Used to be with elite bonii, promos, fare wars and/or fare errors there were some real opportunities out there, but I haven't seen much of them lately. So I agree with you there.
As you seem to recognize, though, the game is really about status not mileage per se. So is the game worth the candle? As with most things in life, YMMV. Every year I put together a spreadsheet of what 1K will cost me above and beyond my usual spend. Most years this is not an insubstantial sum. But when I add up the RDMs, the upgrades (CR-1s, SWUs and top UDU priority), the fees to make changes I don't have to pay, the superior customer service...well at that point, honestly, it's still worth it.
Let's say you're a 1K bottom feeder like myself (
). I average out to $0.05/CPEQM. Certainly not the kind of customer UA is looking for, I admit. Okay, so my "normal" travel is 50K EQM. So then I'm looking at a cost of $2,500 more or less for 100K RDM, and 2-4 CR-1s plus 6 SWUs for the next year (and the ability to earn more CR-1s). Add in the fact I love to fly, can find excuses to travel, and it's starting to look "reasonable." The RDMs get me and the +1 an int'l F trip (more or less) every year, our 2-3 p.s. transcons get upgraded, and my 2-3 int'l flights get upgraded too. Starting to look like a pretty good deal.
The recent UA "enhancements" hurt, no doubt. You ask at what point it wouldn't be worth it anymore: My answer, simply, is when the dollar values I assign to the benefits are less than the cost to attain them. Take my hypothetical (but reality-based) scenario above. At $0.01/RDM, I value the bennies of the additional travel I need to do as follows:
100K RDM = $1,000
6 SWUs = $1,800 ($300 each)
Change Fees = $500
Year of higher status for UDUs = $500
8 CR-1s = $1,000 ($125 each)
E+ = $250
So without better CS -- including the eCerts I get for being disserviced -- I'm looking at $6,000+ in value to me for a cost of $2,500. Take away 4 CR-1s, it's still worth it. Take away E+, it's still worth it. And remember, the fewer people that have status, the more valuable it becomes.
So while I think the days of easy or cheap 1K are over, it's still worth the effort. ^
It seems to me that MRs purely for RDMs have gone the way of the buffalo. Used to be with elite bonii, promos, fare wars and/or fare errors there were some real opportunities out there, but I haven't seen much of them lately. So I agree with you there.
As you seem to recognize, though, the game is really about status not mileage per se. So is the game worth the candle? As with most things in life, YMMV. Every year I put together a spreadsheet of what 1K will cost me above and beyond my usual spend. Most years this is not an insubstantial sum. But when I add up the RDMs, the upgrades (CR-1s, SWUs and top UDU priority), the fees to make changes I don't have to pay, the superior customer service...well at that point, honestly, it's still worth it.
Let's say you're a 1K bottom feeder like myself (
). I average out to $0.05/CPEQM. Certainly not the kind of customer UA is looking for, I admit. Okay, so my "normal" travel is 50K EQM. So then I'm looking at a cost of $2,500 more or less for 100K RDM, and 2-4 CR-1s plus 6 SWUs for the next year (and the ability to earn more CR-1s). Add in the fact I love to fly, can find excuses to travel, and it's starting to look "reasonable." The RDMs get me and the +1 an int'l F trip (more or less) every year, our 2-3 p.s. transcons get upgraded, and my 2-3 int'l flights get upgraded too. Starting to look like a pretty good deal. The recent UA "enhancements" hurt, no doubt. You ask at what point it wouldn't be worth it anymore: My answer, simply, is when the dollar values I assign to the benefits are less than the cost to attain them. Take my hypothetical (but reality-based) scenario above. At $0.01/RDM, I value the bennies of the additional travel I need to do as follows:
100K RDM = $1,000
6 SWUs = $1,800 ($300 each)
Change Fees = $500
Year of higher status for UDUs = $500
8 CR-1s = $1,000 ($125 each)
E+ = $250
So without better CS -- including the eCerts I get for being disserviced -- I'm looking at $6,000+ in value to me for a cost of $2,500. Take away 4 CR-1s, it's still worth it. Take away E+, it's still worth it. And remember, the fewer people that have status, the more valuable it becomes.
So while I think the days of easy or cheap 1K are over, it's still worth the effort. ^
Nov 16, 2010, 12:10 pm
#11
Suspended
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: BOS
Posts: 15,027
I have been contemplating this for several weeks, since I am $220 from attaining Silver with DL if a take a MR.
The problem is I also do not plan to travel much next year (at least so far) and therefore spending $220 does not make sense. Also, for the same price as flying a legacy carrier (i.e. DL, UA) you can fly B6 and get a better product (especially true from the East coast where B6 has a large presence).
Although for a Gold or Platinum elite it makes more sense to keep their status because they get a better product for $$$, for lowly Silver or general members it does not. They should consider flying low-cost airlines only.
The problem is I also do not plan to travel much next year (at least so far) and therefore spending $220 does not make sense. Also, for the same price as flying a legacy carrier (i.e. DL, UA) you can fly B6 and get a better product (especially true from the East coast where B6 has a large presence).
Although for a Gold or Platinum elite it makes more sense to keep their status because they get a better product for $$$, for lowly Silver or general members it does not. They should consider flying low-cost airlines only.
Nov 16, 2010, 12:23 pm
#12
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: SAN
Programs: UA 1MM/1K, HH Diamond
Posts: 6,832
I have been contemplating this for several weeks, since I am $220 from attaining Silver with DL if a take a MR.
The problem is I also do not plan to travel much next year (at least so far) and therefore spending $220 does not make sense. Also, for the same price as flying a legacy carrier (i.e. DL, UA) you can fly B6 and get a better product (especially true from the East coast where B6 has a large presence).
Although for a Gold or Platinum elite it makes more sense to keep their status because they get a better product for $$$, for lowly Silver or general members it does not. They should consider flying low-cost airlines only.
The problem is I also do not plan to travel much next year (at least so far) and therefore spending $220 does not make sense. Also, for the same price as flying a legacy carrier (i.e. DL, UA) you can fly B6 and get a better product (especially true from the East coast where B6 has a large presence).
Although for a Gold or Platinum elite it makes more sense to keep their status because they get a better product for $$$, for lowly Silver or general members it does not. They should consider flying low-cost airlines only.
Nov 16, 2010, 12:25 pm
#13
Suspended
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: New York Metropolitan Area 45 km from JFK
Programs: UA,AA,AS,BA
Posts: 4,607
And I'll explain why. And I apologize in advance for this mini-rant.
First, most people (rightly in my view) value their miles at about a cent per mile. Given the devaluations we've seen over the years, it simply is true that miles aren't worth a whole lot. Thus when redeeming miles people will tend to be rational about it: do the cost of the miles redeemed outweigh the cost of the same flight and cabin if purchased? This makes sense.
Yet when it comes to earning miles, say through a mileage run, folks are not being rational. We see mileage runs listed in the forum in the range of 3-4 cpm, on average. Sometimes we see ridiculous fares like 6cpm. Thus people are spending money and time earning miles at 3-6cpm and redeeming them at a rate of 1cpm. Something is not adding up, right?
Folks will often respond that the elite status is worth all of this. And maybe to some it is. Only you can be the judge of whether sitting on an airplane and spending money to do so is beneficial enough to your future sitting on an airplane. But I would argue that for many travelers the airlines have you hooked. They got you on status, they tie to your ego, and you don't want to lose it. You don't want to lose it so bad that you do ridiculous things like spend 6 cents on a mile and sit in coach on precious days off to do it. Is it really all worth it?
Another common retort is that "the miles let me buy expensive $5k business class seats." And that's true. But those miles are only worth that much to you if you would have paid that amount for the seat in the first place. Yes, you get $5k of "value" from the miles but there is no way those miles are worth $5k to you if you had no intention of spending that amount of money in the first place.
Finally, given the devaluation of status (see the MP "enhancements" for 2011, for instance), it is getting harder and harder to justify MRing for status, is it not? At what point will status be so watered down that you realize the game just isn't worth it anymore?
In closing I would like to suggest that the game is over. The days of $200 fares to Europe where you could earn miles at the same cost of redeeming them is over. But we haven't updated ourselves to this new reality. Instead we spend money chasing miles like it's 2000 all over. We need to learn. We need to update our expectations. We need to be more rational.
Thoughts?
First, most people (rightly in my view) value their miles at about a cent per mile. Given the devaluations we've seen over the years, it simply is true that miles aren't worth a whole lot. Thus when redeeming miles people will tend to be rational about it: do the cost of the miles redeemed outweigh the cost of the same flight and cabin if purchased? This makes sense.
Yet when it comes to earning miles, say through a mileage run, folks are not being rational. We see mileage runs listed in the forum in the range of 3-4 cpm, on average. Sometimes we see ridiculous fares like 6cpm. Thus people are spending money and time earning miles at 3-6cpm and redeeming them at a rate of 1cpm. Something is not adding up, right?
Folks will often respond that the elite status is worth all of this. And maybe to some it is. Only you can be the judge of whether sitting on an airplane and spending money to do so is beneficial enough to your future sitting on an airplane. But I would argue that for many travelers the airlines have you hooked. They got you on status, they tie to your ego, and you don't want to lose it. You don't want to lose it so bad that you do ridiculous things like spend 6 cents on a mile and sit in coach on precious days off to do it. Is it really all worth it?
Another common retort is that "the miles let me buy expensive $5k business class seats." And that's true. But those miles are only worth that much to you if you would have paid that amount for the seat in the first place. Yes, you get $5k of "value" from the miles but there is no way those miles are worth $5k to you if you had no intention of spending that amount of money in the first place.
Finally, given the devaluation of status (see the MP "enhancements" for 2011, for instance), it is getting harder and harder to justify MRing for status, is it not? At what point will status be so watered down that you realize the game just isn't worth it anymore?
In closing I would like to suggest that the game is over. The days of $200 fares to Europe where you could earn miles at the same cost of redeeming them is over. But we haven't updated ourselves to this new reality. Instead we spend money chasing miles like it's 2000 all over. We need to learn. We need to update our expectations. We need to be more rational.
Thoughts?
In order for Mileage Runs to make sense one or several of the following conditions should apply to your situation.
1. You fly paid tickets to places you needed / or wanted to fly to anyway.
2. You Fuel Dump the ticket price (YQ removal ) to half or less than half of what it would have cost without FD.
3. You already have Elite Status and thus earn double miles ( Base miles and/or EQM).
4. You redeem those miles for high cost destinations that you either need or want to visit in the future.( Bali, Seychelles, Fiji, Cape Town etc).
5. You are very likely to do high volume flying in 2011/2012 to enjoy the benefits of Elite Status ( Lounge/upgrades etc, ).
Even if you apply just points 2 and 3 above your CPM spent will go down by 75 % and CPEQM by 50 %.
Wanting to stay disciplined about my travel, I generally require myself to meet all the above " requirement" on any ticket and I have actually always utilized my fuel dropping segments ( 3X) to places I needed to go anyway.
Well written.^
Nov 16, 2010, 12:36 pm
#14
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: ARN
Posts: 1,034
Very interesting thread, thanks OP. I just made DL Plat for the third year in a row, with 40-55k of OPM travel each year and the rest out of pocket and/or DMQM. Am I just feeding my ego or is the jump from GM to PM worth the $600ish I pay? Funny question for me to consider.
Off topic, on a MR this past Saturday, Delta bumped me from the last flight ATL-SAN, gave me $600 to take the first flight out on Sunday (in coach, meh) and I still made my 10:15am softball game in Ocean Beach. Those delta dollars in effect nearly paid for the three MR that I purchased to keep PM. Another funny thing for me to consider.
Thanks for posting about this, I look forward to reading the responses.
Off topic, on a MR this past Saturday, Delta bumped me from the last flight ATL-SAN, gave me $600 to take the first flight out on Sunday (in coach, meh) and I still made my 10:15am softball game in Ocean Beach. Those delta dollars in effect nearly paid for the three MR that I purchased to keep PM. Another funny thing for me to consider.
Thanks for posting about this, I look forward to reading the responses.
Nov 16, 2010, 12:44 pm
#15
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: SEA
Programs: AS MVP 75K, DL Diamond, LH SEN, Hyatt Globalist, Marriott Ambassador
Posts: 2,360