Programs: Delta Gold Medallion,AA,USairways,Midwest Airlines, National Emerald Club
Posts: 1,438
Quote:
Originally Posted by knope2001
Onboard loads MKE-LAX and LAX-MKE for Midwest in 12 most recent months:
92.8% april 2007
92.5% may
97.2% june
92.1% july
91.2% aug
64.8% sept
79.8% oct
67.3% nov
73.9% dec
73.2% jan 2008
79.2% feb
89.7% mar
Assumming a desired threshold of 80% LF there is only one month from Sep. Jan. that comes close (Oct.) to supporting non-stop.
LAX looks perfect for seasonal non-stop service. The remainder of the year service the LAX market w/ one stop in MCI. At a minimum we are entering the slack period.
Actually, I do see one CRJ market being discontinued before the end of July. The last day of service for the 2 AUS-MCI roundtrips will be July 19, based on the schedules posted here:
Yup...MCI-AUS and MCI-PIT flights on the CRJ end 7/19. However those drops were out well before the M80 press release and are not part of those changes. Still no sign of any schedule change related to that.
I just downloaded the July update to the YX PC Timetable. It is more confusing than anything. I see a loss of 1 flight to DAY from MKE for example, but it still shows the MD-80 flights after Labor Day. MY guess is that this app update was made a long time ago...when does the next shoe really drop?
Programs: Midwest Miles, Northwest World Perks, Alaska Air Mileage Plan, VX eleVAte, Airtran A+Reward
Posts: 1,039
Quote:
Originally Posted by knope2001
Maybe I didn't state my point well...I'll try to lay it out differently
Fact 1: The M80's are going to be grounded
Fact 2: The routes currently served by M80's are still for sale 13 days after the M80 grounding was announced
I don't think this is an error or an inept action. I believe this supports the hypothesis that Midwest is working on a means by which they will still serve these markets with other aircraft.
Among other possibilities:
--Midwest leasing or buying M80 replacement aircraft (only possible with TPG's backing, of course)
--Midwest wet-leasing capacity from another carrier who would fly as Midwest Airlines.
--Midwest code-sharing with another carrier (almost certainly NW) who would fly routes as their own brand but also sell them as YX*
And let me restate again what really gave birth to this whole idea...the company statement:
"We may look at other fleet options for direct flights from Milwaukee or continue to serve the west coast markets via Kansas City with Boeing 717s. We're in the process of nailing down the schedule and these decisions"
That's hardly a firm commitment, but if they had no plans other than to park the M80's, then why make this statement?
If Midwest is still going to fly the markets today served by the M80, it would be dumb for them to pull them from sale only to have them restored again.
If they ultimately can only backfill the current M80 markets with 717s, the worst case has them calling passengers with schedule change information unless they oversell beyond the 717 capacity they backfill with.
That's misleading the passengers. Hardly the best care in the air
Yup, I think that's safe to say. We're coming on two full weeks since the M80 parking plan was made public, and yet there are no scheduled changes apparent yet. Normally when Midwest discontinues or trims a route, you often see it pulled from the schedule even before it is made public. But Midwest continues to offer for sale the full complement of M80 routes. That's another reason why I think something is up beyond a simple dropping of the M80 routes. That's no guarantee that whatever is in the works will actually come to pass, but they're apparently not yet ready to confirm the market cuts.
Perhaps, we might see something like Ryan Air do the long haul flying. Just as Air Tran did in 2003, until they took delivery of the 737's. Just a thought, but also $$$$.
That's misleading the passengers. Hardly the best care in the air
It's only misleading the passengers if they know they will not fly the routes...and that's my point here. I think they're still trying to work something out. Once they know for certain what flights won't be backfilled, they need to pull them from the schedule.
I do agree that it is not very good customer service to sell nonstop flights only to later change it to a 1-stop or connection. But it happens all the time...and Midwest's most aggressive competitor these days does this all the time with new and seasonal markets. I would not say that they do this without a reasonable good faith attempt to fly what they offer for sale...at the time. But neither would I say that Midwest is being dishonest, either.
Perhaps, we might see something like Ryan Air do the long haul flying. Just as Air Tran did in 2003, until they took delivery of the 737's. Just a thought, but also $$$$.
Definitely possible, but very likely expenseive. With industrywide contraction, they *might* find a comparably good deal to wet least lift as compared to, say, two years ago. But it's generally not cheap, and it would probably have to be a "placeholder" until they could again serve the markets themselves.
Of course it's all speculation at this point...and if they are indeed trying to work something out (which I think they are) it could still fall through, in which case we're back to square one with only the 717s. We'll see, I guess.
Perhaps, we might see something like Ryan Air do the long haul flying. Just as Air Tran did in 2003, until they took delivery of the 737's. Just a thought, but also $$$$.
Interesting point. Ryan International (NOT Ryanair) does have a seasonal crew base in MKE, and flies charter 737s to CUN, PUJ, and other warm-weather destinations in the wintertime. They'd be a good choice if Midwest were to do a wet-lease arrangement for West Coast destinations, but I just don't see it happening if yields are as low on MKE-LAX, MKE-SEA, etc. as they presumably are.
Interesting point. Ryan International (NOT Ryanair) does have a seasonal crew base in MKE, and flies charter 737s to CUN, PUJ, and other warm-weather destinations in the wintertime. They'd be a good choice if Midwest were to do a wet-lease arrangement for West Coast destinations, but I just don't see it happening if yields are as low on MKE-LAX, MKE-SEA, etc. as they presumably are.
According to Wiki, Ryan International already has scheduled service to Los Angeles, Las Vegas and San Francisco from MKE. So maybe a wet lease would work with them. On their website they say they specialize in Wet Lease, Airline Startup and Fleet Expansion.
Last edited by flyYX; Jul 2, 08 at 9:51 am.
Reason: typo
Programs: Delta Gold Medallion,AA,USairways,Midwest Airlines, National Emerald Club
Posts: 1,438
Quote:
Originally Posted by knope2001
It's only misleading the passengers if they know they will not fly the routes...and that's my point here. I think they're still trying to work something out. Once they know for certain what flights won't be backfilled, they need to pull them from the schedule.
The glass is always half-full, eh, Knope ? Of course you know Air Tran said they would look at the Midwest schedule changes and then make a decision about what flights and markets to serve, so it also serves to mislead the competition - gotta love it.
Joe Kolchak said Midwest would not cede any market share. Oops, the fleet-footed COO has left the building,
Programs: Delta Gold Medallion,AA,USairways,Midwest Airlines, National Emerald Club
Posts: 1,438
Quote:
Originally Posted by flyYX
According to Wiki, Ryan International already has scheduled service to Los Angeles, Las Vegas and San Francisco from MKE. So maybe a wet lease would work with them. On their website they say they specialize in Wet Lease, Airline Startup and Fleet Expansion.
FlyYX, we are supposed to be cutting costs, not raising them!
Programs: United 1k, Midwest Miles, VX eleVAte, Hilton Diamond VIP
Posts: 1,219
Quote:
Originally Posted by flyYX
According to Wiki, Ryan International already has scheduled service to Los Angeles, Las Vegas and San Francisco from MKE. So maybe a wet lease would work with them. On their website they say they specialize in Wet Lease, Airline Startup and Fleet Expansion.
Ryan International does not have scheduled service from MKE to SFO, LAX, or SFO. The only carriers currently offering service on those routes are of course Midwest and AirTran.
For a little bit of useless trivia, Midwest has wet leased at least one aircraft in the past. A 727 was utilized immediately following the 1985 crash to help maintain the schedule until more DC9 aircraft came on-line.
__________________ If you don't know where you are going, you might end up someplace else.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hazelrah
Air Tran said they would look at the Midwest schedule changes and then make a decision about what flights and markets to serve
It will be interesting to see what, if anything, AirTran does. The only market they may decide to keep year-round is LAX. That is far from a given at this point.
AirTran will be reducing its fleet further this year. There are also some pretty credible rumors floating around that AirTran will be asking for pay cuts from its employees as well. It looks like AirTran will be hunkering down like most other carriers and may not as aggressively pounce on perceived opportunities as they have in the past. Time will tell.
__________________ If you don't know where you are going, you might end up someplace else.
Ryan International does not have scheduled service from MKE to SFO, LAX, or SFO. The only carriers currently offering service on those routes are of course Midwest and AirTran.
timetable july update
Just a thought, but also $$$$.
? Of course you know Air Tran said they would look at the Midwest schedule changes and then make a decision about what flights and markets to serve, so it also serves to mislead the competition - gotta love it.
