knope2001

Here are the onboard loads for October 2010 for Midwest and select competitors. As always, remember that loads are only half the picture when it comes to estimated financial returns, saying little about fare or traffic composition.

Midwest

Markets primarily flown with 717/E190/E170

92.8% ….. MKE ….. LAS
92.7% ….. MKE ….. PHX
89.3% ….. MKE ….. DEN
89.2% ….. MKE ….. TPA
86.1% ….. MKE ….. MCO
82.7% ….. MKE ….. LGA
82.3% ….. MCI ….. BOS
81.6% ….. MKE ….. LAX
80.8% ….. OMA ….. DCA
80.8% ….. MCI ….. SFO
77.7% ….. MCI ….. SEA
77.0% ….. MKE ….. DCA
76.4% ….. MCI ….. DCA
76.2% ….. MKE ….. BOS
75.1% ….. MCI ….. LGA
73.1% ….. MCI ….. LAX
72.8% ….. MKE ….. DFW
70.8% ….. MKE ….. ATL
62.3% ….. MKE ….. MCI (note this is prior to WN entry)
55.3% ….. MKE ….. OMA

Markets primarily flown with RJ's.
77.4% ….. IND
77.1% ….. PHL
75.0% ….. MSP
74.2% ….. PIT
73.9% ….. ATW
73.2% ….. MSN
69.7% ….. EWR
68.7% ….. BNA
68.6% ….. GRR
66.6% ….. GRB
62.9% ….. CLE
60.0% ….. SDF
56.6% ….. DAY
55.6% ….. DSM
55.4% ….. CMH
54.1% ….. FNT

Frontier

92.5% ….. DEN

AirTran
91.6% ….. LAS
89.3% ….. SFO
88.1% ….. TPA
84.1% ….. MCO
82.8% ….. SEA
81.4% ….. LAX
76.1% ….. ATL
75.2% ….. MSP
73.7% ….. DEN
73.6% ….. BOS
71.4% ….. BWI
71.1% ….. LGA
67.9% ….. STL
65.5% ….. DCA
47.2% ….. PIT
37.7% ….. IND

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This is the last month with the high-volume leisure routes being flown by 99-seat 717's and E190's, and I suspect we won't see some of those markets as full again until February. On the RJ side, the load factor numbers in some routes benefitted from the switch to 37-seat ER3's. However several of the highest load markets were those still flown with 50-seat CRJ's this month, specially PHL, MSP, PIT, MSN and EWR. Each of those could benefit from some E170 service.

On the AirTran side, the west coast continued to be relativley full into fall, with the business routes somewhat thinner and new PIT/IND at the tail end. A key to the decent loads to the east coast is undoubtedly feed from MSP and STL. There are stats just out for the 3rd quarter (OCT is 4th quarter, of course) showing how much Boston benefits from MSP feed.

3rd quarter daily average AirTran boardings on BOS-MKE
94 passengers per day local BOS-MKE
73 passengers per day flying BOS-MSP via MKE
15 passengers per day flying from BOS to other destinations (like STL or LAX) via MKE

But as I've mentioned, revenue is just as important. From the same 3Q stats, here's the average local fare:

$167 BOS-ORD on United
$148 BOS-ORD on American
$129 BOS-MKE on Midwest
$96 BOS-MKE on AirTran

$233 BOS-MSP on Northwest
$113 BOS-MSP (via MKE) on AirTran

So those dozens of daily BOS-MSP passengers filled seats, but the MKE-MSP leg essentially earned them just $17 above an already-depressed $96 BOS-MKE fare.

newsmanhoss

What we don't know is what percentage of passengers paid to check bags, reserve a seat ahead of time, paid to reserve an exit row, or paid to upgrade to biz class. It may not add a whole lot to the average revenue per passenger on this route, but it certainly can't hurt.

As airlines add more fees, the initial fare becomes just a starting point when discussing revenue and the viability of a route.

BlueHorseShoe2000

Just a few general observations:

a. It looks like traffic at MCI is finally starting to re-bound from the depths of the recession. BOS in particular did quite well in October. The time for some additional expansion at MCI may finally be at hand.

b. For the RJ markets above, I haven't seen loads that high on those routes for sometime (has IND ever been that high???). AirTran competition has finally brought close-in booking fares down to much more reasonable levels. Hopefully Midwest makes up for some of the lost revenue with higher passenger loads.

Thanks as usual for posting these stats ^

knope2001

Very true, although most everybody now has varying sources of ancillary revenue from bag fees, upgrade fees, seat assignment fees, change fees and the like. FL charges for seat assignments which some don't, but has lower bag fees. Their upgrade fees are more expensive than YX, but the upgrade waives bag fees on FL but not YX.

knope2001

I think we'll see much softer numbers this winter at MCI, but things are picking up again. I've heard of a couple of MCI additions coming in May, but I don't think it's safe to assume they will actually happen until the routes are actually announced.


I'm puzzled on why they continue to fly E135's to Indy, and am looking for that to be upgraded. The passengers are there. Some flights and city pairs are better suited to the smaller 135, but other places can clearly use more seats. The summer schedule is still definitely in development, so we'll probably see more adjustments.