trekwars2000

I think the revenue comment isn't so much based on the amount the hotel gets paid for the cert, but rather the add on nights they lose. I'm sure I'm not the only one that will use two certs and then tack on another paid night to complete the 3 day weekend.

newaarondavidson

I think what hurt was the new Cat9, moving up quite a few properties from 8 to 9 and then 6-7 to 8. It hurts our redemption and keeps us in the mid-range properties (which also generate more gross revenue).

JYoon

I think what also hurt was the fact that with these increased category levels for the hotels, their daily rate went up too. And no more usage for the 1-5 category certificates.

BrightlyBob

I don't know about everyone else here but I feel fortunate indeed that my travel has held up pretty well during the economic crisis, and when it hasn't I've been able to use my MR points for some fabulous destinations, staying in places I just couldn't otherwise hope to.

As a result I've used points obtained from work during the boom years on leisure redemptions during the crisis. Yes, nominally I guess the value of my redemptions taken 2008/12 could have been "worth" more in earlier years, but then I was too busy working to build up my biz.

But now I'm sure it's time to pay the piper.

I and others like me have helped keep the hotels going, burning points during the crisis and I'm sure this is part of the perceived benefit from the hotels point of view. The scheme attracts paying guests during the good times and brings in the redeemers (effectively corporate paying subsistence rates, which at least keeps the bailiffs at bay) during the hard ones. Now with times improving, occupation and REVPAR increasing, our points are a drag on corporate books and it becomes very tempting to just increase redemption costs, hence decreasing the drag those unspent points represent.

Long story short... Don't expect any kind of beneficial restructure next year.

joshua362

I agree not to expect anything substantial and if anything, its going to always go the "wrong" way, i.e 5+ times more ups than downs.

I too kept up my travels during this "crisis" (which I fear has been blown out of proportion and allowed to linger on too long as an excuse for cutbacks.)

Unless one is self employed, I don't understand anyone using their own points for business travel and if anything, those who continued to travel and spend consistently during the "crisis" should be held in high regard. However, we are forced to endure service and lounge cutbacks and the indignity of watch our points devalue 20-25% year over year until we might get a chance to use them.

Just my spin on it...

Texas Booster

As many have seen this year room rates have been steadily raising at Marriotts Worldwide, even on the weekends. Marriott's room rates were up 5.3% in the first quarter 2013 and 4.3% in the 2nd quarter 2013. Arne Sorenson expects the trend on raising room rates to continue in the third and fourth quarters.

Printing money continuously tends to do that. Seems like most Western governments have decided that inflation is better than high unemployment - oops! Heck, soon we may even find out what China's GDP and inflation are.

So where does all this money for jobs seem to end up?

VickiSoCal

So overall is our ability to redeem up or down?

Let's say in 2005, the average Plat stayed 100 nights at an average room rate of $200. They would earn about

15x100x200 (base+50%) + ~60,000 (3 megabonuses) + (30*500) arrival points = 375,000

in 2013 let's say average room rate is up to 300

15x100x300 (base+50%) + ~60,000 (3 megabonuses) + (30*500) arrival points = 525,000

Does 525,000 buy the same number of nights at a top tier cat 9 now, as it did at a top tier cat 7 back then?

joshua362

Sounds like calculus to me, what is your conclusion?

I do know that I wasn't making a regular habit of staying at $200 Marriotts then and certainly not in $300 rooms now. The corporate travel department and my boss would have my head.

Is it plausible that those lucky enough to stay in expensive downtown locations mess this up for the rest of us?

iztok

My corporate has me limited to $150/night and it didn't change for past 4 years. Thus all I can do is find properties that are under the limit when my preferred place moves above $150.

OU812

Don't forget in 2009 there was a major devaluation in MR points and MR did away with the two tiered system (Point Savers vs. Stay Anytime Rewards) and added the 5th night free.

Under the old MR Award system with 375,000 points, IIRC, you could stay 16 nights at @ Cat 7 prop and 1 night at a Cat 3.

Under the current system:
375,000 points would get you 12 nights at @ Cat 7 Prop and 1 night @ a Cat 5. (10 nights = 280,000 points, + 2 nights =70,000, leaving 1 night@ 25,000)

525,000 would get you 13 nights @ a Cat 9 prop and 1 night @ a Cat 6 (10 nights = 360,000 points, + 3 nights = 135,000, leaving 1 night @ 30,000)

Unfortunately for most of us, our corporate travel rates or government rates have not kept pace with Marriott Rewards Inflation and category changes over the last 8 years.

Regards,

RIP...

CJKatl

I don't regularly stay in expensive downtown locations, but I do stay in the same hotels now I stayed in eight years ago. The rates have gone up. For us, it's about being where we need to be in the morning. The closest/most convenient hotel may be an FFI, or it may be a JW.

Within those parameters, I believe Vicki's analysis is spot on. The price of the hotels have gone up, so the number of points earned per stay has gone up, which means the number of stays per redemption at hotels that increase categories has remained consistent.

Example: The number of nights banked to redeem a night at the CE FS has remained the same, even though the number of points needed has increased, because the average number of points I'm earning per stay has also increased. If previously it took 40k/ night to redeem, and I was earning ~4k MRP/night, it took ten nights to earn a redemption night. Now, I'm paying more and earning ~4.5k MRP/night, it still takes me ten nights to earn the 45k required now. (Numbers are high, but used to illustrate point.)

It also seems there is now an additional MegaBonus each year, which keeps those bonus points on par.

VickiSoCal

It does seem like with higher rates, we are racking up more points on average, but awards are costing more points on average. Overall I don't know if we are better off or not.

In order to keep pace with increased points earning due to increased room rates, Marriott has two choices- increase the category of hotels, or increase the number of points to redeem each category.

BrightlyBob

While cleaning up an old laptop I found some Marriott emails from 2006. These indicated the top megabonus award was 40,000 points, the platinum bonus was 30% instead of the now 50% and nightly rates were certainly lower.

So in 2006 hotels I was staying at cost around $100night weekdays so that would gain 1000 pts plus a further 300 plat bonus and the 500pts welcome making approx 1800pts per night. 25 nights stayed in megabonus made an extra 40,000 pts. Someone staying the full 75 nights and making all the megabonuses would make 250,000pts pa.

Today those rates are more like $180 gaining 1800 plus the 50%plat bonus which is 900. Add the arrival points makes 3200 per night. Nowadays the top megabonus is 50,000 points for the 25nights meaning 75 nights pay plus max megabonus is 400,000pts.

Remember these are the same hotels and if redemption rates remained static then for the same stays I would be redeeming 50%more. Like it or lump it, that isn't economically viable for points where earning is linked to inflationary fiat currency (paper money) but redeemed at a static value (roomnights).

Currencies suffer inflation, thus more points are earned for the same rooms. Hence reward devaluations.

joshua362

There are arguments to be made on both sides...

However consider plight of an occasional traveler or a PLT like myself that for years was forced to stay week after week at a $84 / night SHS. I'm sure its a bit more than $84 now but it certainly hasn't come close to doubling. I've saved this smaller trickle of points over the years in the hopes of cashing out for something big in the future, only to see it devalue by 20% per year.

I imagine many middle managers and IT working types aren't in the same boat as those whose corporate budgets allow $200 & $300 per night stays! The sacrifice (a life away from home) is the same...

lingzhou

this is definitely a good news