Mar 17, 2014, 3:08 pm
Last edit by: JDiver
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FlyerTalk members come from all walks of life and all parts of the world. We are as diverse in our makeup as we are alike in our passion for frequent flyer programs. Because we all bring a unique perspective to the forum, our collective experience is broadened, and we gain new insights.
Our diversity demands that we respect each other. Due to the inherent constraints of the Internet, humor, sarcasm, language and slang can be easily misinterpreted - especially when crossing cultural boundaries.
When posting a message, pay extra care to how it might be interpreted. And when you come across a post that offends you, read it with an eye toward giving the poster the benefit of the doubt.
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In order to a) keep the original thread focused on confirmed news and known facts, and b) allow folks a place to discuss their ideas about what might have happened, the MH370 moderators and Community Director have decided to open this thread.
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MH370 Discussion and Speculation Thread
Mar 17, 2014, 11:07 am
#121
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 7,605
Indeed, a watch and sunrise would be enough to work that one out
Mar 17, 2014, 11:08 am
#122
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: sheffield
Posts: 51
Maybe because the guys they recruited lived in Malaysia, or flights over that region will be security jittery anyway.
Mar 17, 2014, 11:16 am
#123
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 91
Based on everything I have read so far, my only explanation is that a third party had some cargo to move or an agenda to carry out. They choose an airport and more importantly, an expert pilot and a big plane. The pilot is coerced into planning the mission - or else. (Threats to his family, etc.)
This is the only way I can square having a well-respected pilot for a major airline deciding to do anything intentionally out of the norm.
This is the only way I can square having a well-respected pilot for a major airline deciding to do anything intentionally out of the norm.
Mar 17, 2014, 11:19 am
#124
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: HPN
Programs: not anymore! I'm FREE!
Posts: 3,459
A few good questions have been raised in the last 2-3 pages about non-terrorist causes regarding power failures etc.
Related to that, this popped up on CNN and i was curious if anyone here had read it or had any comments as to the plausibilities
"Pilot: Was that Boeing 777 diverted deliberately? Not necessarily"
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/16/op...html?hpt=hp_t2
Related to that, this popped up on CNN and i was curious if anyone here had read it or had any comments as to the plausibilities
"Pilot: Was that Boeing 777 diverted deliberately? Not necessarily"
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/16/op...html?hpt=hp_t2
Heading changes are also what I would expect to see in an autopilot-off situation. The 777's fly-by-wire roll control law controls the tilt of the wings. The airplane would be subject to atmospheric disturbances that could act to tip a wing up every now and then, but built-in protections prevent the plane from exceeding bank angles in excess of 35°. While a conventional airplane would tend to spiral down in that situation, the 777 incorporates automatic pitch compensation, so the airplane could easily hold its altitude in these turns.
The fly-by-wire control system on the 777 makes it a very stable airplane, capable of flying for hours with the autopilot off without crashing.
If the flight path can be shown to be very straight lines with neat turns followed by another straight line, then I would throw out the "autopilot-off" theory, but it seems as though officials can't even determine where the plane was heading, much less the nature and cause of some heading changes.
The fly-by-wire control system on the 777 makes it a very stable airplane, capable of flying for hours with the autopilot off without crashing.
If the flight path can be shown to be very straight lines with neat turns followed by another straight line, then I would throw out the "autopilot-off" theory, but it seems as though officials can't even determine where the plane was heading, much less the nature and cause of some heading changes.
Last edited by snic; Mar 17, 2014 at 11:21 am Reason: add last paragraph
Mar 17, 2014, 11:20 am
#125
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: London, UK
Programs: BA Gold, UA Nobody, Hilton Gold
Posts: 2,372
I often fly standby only as my mom was a FA with DL. Only the gate agent has the power to get my off the standby list, so I just have to get cleared at the gate, even if the plane is generally empty. On long routes there are usually between 10-15 (sometimes more) employee/retiree/family standby passengers.
Mar 17, 2014, 11:25 am
#126
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 7,605
Bottom line: don't throw out the catastrophic event theory yet. The pilots could have been incapacitated and the events as we understand them are consistent with that. (That doesn't mean that intentional misdirection of the plane is inconsistent with them, but neither can be ruled out.)
Mar 17, 2014, 11:25 am
#127
Join Date: Mar 2006
Programs: UA Lifetime Gold, Marriott Rewards Platinum, HHonors Gold, Hyatt Diamond
Posts: 1,385
Or to Anwar Ibrahim, in prison?
Mar 17, 2014, 11:30 am
#128
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 91
I'm not going to speculate as far as any details other than barring a catastrophic avionics failure, the pilot had to be involved if we are to believe any of the little data we have now. The pilot's life is his career and flying - not a criminal agenda.
The pilot flew the plane. Who flew the pilot? That is what I believe should be investigated.
The pilot flew the plane. Who flew the pilot? That is what I believe should be investigated.
Mar 17, 2014, 11:30 am
#129
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: London
Programs: BA Gold, Avis Presidents Club
Posts: 357
The centre part of the arc overlaps with another Inmarsat satellite's coverage. The ping was only received by the sat over the Indian Ocean, not the one in the Pacific as well. Ergo, that bit can't have been where the plane was.
Mar 17, 2014, 11:31 am
#130
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: LHR- ish
Programs: MUCCI, BA Blue
Posts: 4,295
Well that situation probably isn't going to be improved by any delay in attempting to land. A knackered aircraft is only going to get more knackered the longer it flies. Mind you I suppose a delay in landing might be desirable in order to establish how much control you have/attempt to get things working/allow an injured member of the flightcrew to recover.
I don't know about the first point but I can't argue with the second - beyond the fact that MH may have enough flights into PEK to allow some flexibility in who crews on which return flight.
I don't know about the first point but I can't argue with the second - beyond the fact that MH may have enough flights into PEK to allow some flexibility in who crews on which return flight.
Mar 17, 2014, 11:42 am
#131
Original Member
Join Date: May 1998
Location: Orange County, CA, USA
Programs: AA (Life Plat), Marriott (Life Titanium) and every other US program
Posts: 6,411
My suggestion - no cargo is valuable enough to explain this. Too many uncertainties with obtaining the plane/cargo even with a well-planned disappearance. If it was intentional, only people (some person on board) has this much value.
P.S. My version (right or wrong) assumes any cargo less than the Covenant of the Ark (See Raiders of the Lost Ark). I dont' care if it was $250 million in currency, gold or diamonds. The "cost" and "risk" of this particular incident, combined with the "notoriety" of trying to move the results, dictates against the cargo as a goal (in my non-expert opinion).
P.S. My version (right or wrong) assumes any cargo less than the Covenant of the Ark (See Raiders of the Lost Ark). I dont' care if it was $250 million in currency, gold or diamonds. The "cost" and "risk" of this particular incident, combined with the "notoriety" of trying to move the results, dictates against the cargo as a goal (in my non-expert opinion).
Last edited by sbrower; Mar 17, 2014 at 12:47 pm Reason: Added PS
Mar 17, 2014, 11:45 am
#133
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: NY Metro Area
Programs: AA 2MM Yay!, UA MM, Costco General Member
Posts: 49,035
While not ruling out people, I disagree about the cargo. For instance there were articles a few years ago about routine shipments on flights from JFK that contained shipments from the NY Fed to the central bank of another country. They were in some cases upwards of 100 million in US bills. Gold or diamonds could get up to those numbers as well. Mangosteens, not so much.
Mar 17, 2014, 11:49 am
#134
Join Date: Mar 2006
Programs: UA Lifetime Gold, Marriott Rewards Platinum, HHonors Gold, Hyatt Diamond
Posts: 1,385
MH 370 to Taliban?
Intrigued by the idea put forth in today’s Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...d-9195320.html, see paragraph two) that the plane might have been flown to a Taliban-controlled area of Afghanistan or Pakistan, I asked Jere Van Dyk – author of In Afghanistan and Captive and CBS Radio correspondent on terrorism -- if there were any landing fields / landing strips in Taliban controlled territory that would measure 900+ meters (using the stats given on this board for landing a 777, not Boeing’s 5000 feet). Without researching, he wrote back his impressions:
“I would think that the U.S. has Afghanistan airspace covered. Could be wrong, but I don't know of any concrete airstrips in the Pashtun belt that the U.S./NATO have not taken over. They are at Shindad, south of Herat, built by Soviets, Kandahar, built by TWA, and Jalalabad, where OBL landed when he returned from Sudan and where the U.S. took his body. Could a pilot land this on a hard desert stretch? Maybe so, but as you put it, how do you hide it there? Other airstrips are in Tajik areas, in Herat and Bagram, under U.S. or Afghan control. “
“I thought more of Pakistan, with its multitude of bases, some built by the British, in Wana, Maran Shah, Quetta area and very, very possibly, others. But in this case, the ISI would have to know. Would it risk this with the West, and with China, its ally? Central Asia seemed plausible, and I even have been thinking of the Uighurs, but the Chinese I think would have a lock on things as regards to airstrips in East Turkistan/Sinjiang (sp?). If the pilots got to Iran, well, that is a whole other story. I want the people to have survived, but I just don't know. “
It doesn’t sound to me like this is much of a possibility, but there may be other opinions out there.
“I would think that the U.S. has Afghanistan airspace covered. Could be wrong, but I don't know of any concrete airstrips in the Pashtun belt that the U.S./NATO have not taken over. They are at Shindad, south of Herat, built by Soviets, Kandahar, built by TWA, and Jalalabad, where OBL landed when he returned from Sudan and where the U.S. took his body. Could a pilot land this on a hard desert stretch? Maybe so, but as you put it, how do you hide it there? Other airstrips are in Tajik areas, in Herat and Bagram, under U.S. or Afghan control. “
“I thought more of Pakistan, with its multitude of bases, some built by the British, in Wana, Maran Shah, Quetta area and very, very possibly, others. But in this case, the ISI would have to know. Would it risk this with the West, and with China, its ally? Central Asia seemed plausible, and I even have been thinking of the Uighurs, but the Chinese I think would have a lock on things as regards to airstrips in East Turkistan/Sinjiang (sp?). If the pilots got to Iran, well, that is a whole other story. I want the people to have survived, but I just don't know. “
It doesn’t sound to me like this is much of a possibility, but there may be other opinions out there.