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MH370 Discussion and Speculation Thread

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Old Mar 17, 2014, 3:08 pm
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In order to a) keep the original thread focused on confirmed news and known facts, and b) allow folks a place to discuss their ideas about what might have happened, the MH370 moderators and Community Director have decided to open this thread.

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MH370 Discussion and Speculation Thread

Old Apr 5, 2014, 2:04 pm
  #1561  
 
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Originally Posted by EsherFlyer
Sound travels quite well in water. I thought the detection range was 'upto' 4-5 miles, so while I see a distance challenge hopefully they can cover a wider area by towing at lower depth?
Towing something at 3000 feet of depth is no easy task already. I wonder if that's a sweet spot, or if it is a limitation of the equipment involved?
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Old Apr 5, 2014, 2:43 pm
  #1562  
 
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Originally Posted by NewbieRunner
How can you say 'there is no doubt' when the reporter clearly said that this frequency is not exclusive to the plane's black box, this kind of signal could be from some other equipment, and they cannot confirm that the signals are from the missing plane?
Because what the reporter said was nonsense. That frequency and cadence is unique to the pinger - that's the whole point. And if it's a pinger, well, it must be from the MH370 unless anyone's heard of another aircraft going down in the southern ocean within the past 30 days. There's no ambiguity about that. The only ambiguity is about whether they really did hear it in the first place.

By the way, anyone notice how there seems to be no indication whatsoever of any swell in the video that was supposedly shot on the ship? http://mashable.com/2014/04/05/chine...lane-malaysia/

Last edited by polarbreeze; Apr 5, 2014 at 3:40 pm
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Old Apr 5, 2014, 6:42 pm
  #1563  
 
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Originally Posted by polarbreeze
…anyone notice how there seems to be no indication whatsoever of any swell in the video that was supposedly shot on the ship?
If a ship of that size were proceeding with or against the swell at low speed then it could be very difficult to notice any movement in a video such as that. Particularly in the case of fore and aft movement, it would not be necessary for the reporter to sway in order to maintain balance. This assumes fairly calm conditions and/or a gentle swell.

And the conditions must have been fairly calm as the reporter's hair doesn't move at all during the shot (sea state doesn't have to match wind speed, of course, but in this case perhaps both were calm). Although some currents of air would normally be expected even on the leeward side of a ship, on a calm night, the winds are… calm.

Of course, it could be a soundstage, similar ship in port, etc… Bit of an elaborate hoax in that case…

Last edited by ExpatExp; Apr 5, 2014 at 9:17 pm Reason: added detail
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Old Apr 5, 2014, 7:25 pm
  #1564  
 
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Shanghai-based Xinmin Evening News cited its reporter on board the patrol ship as reporting that the ship’s crew had “basically confirmed” that the signal was from the missing Boeing 777-200.
http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel...-1226875724698

And yet...
The media office of the Joint Agency Coordination Centre said the could not say anything about the signal or whether it had come from MH370.

“We are unable to verify any such information at this point in time,” the office said.


The new search areas for today do not include the coordinates given by the Chinese, so if JACC cannot confirm the story, if not today, then when?

In 24 hours the pings may be weaker, less frequent, or gone for good...

No matter how unlikely this report may be, no clue should be ignored.

Last edited by cblaisd; Apr 5, 2014 at 9:52 pm Reason: Removed question-begging inflammatory assertion of facts not in evidence
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Old Apr 5, 2014, 8:53 pm
  #1565  
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Originally Posted by polarbreeze
Because what the reporter said was nonsense. That frequency and cadence is unique to the pinger - that's the whole point. And if it's a pinger, well, it must be from the MH370 unless anyone's heard of another aircraft going down in the southern ocean within the past 30 days. There's no ambiguity about that. The only ambiguity is about whether they really did hear it in the first place.

By the way, anyone notice how there seems to be no indication whatsoever of any swell in the video that was supposedly shot on the ship? http://mashable.com/2014/04/05/chine...lane-malaysia/
Let me see: it's pitch (so to speak) black so there's no horizon, the weather is fair, the camera is fixed to the ship's deck by a tripod, and she's standing in the leeward side of the ship?
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Old Apr 5, 2014, 9:00 pm
  #1566  
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Originally Posted by Wickerman
Shanghai-based Xinmin Evening News cited its reporter on board the patrol ship as reporting that the ships crew had basically confirmed that the signal was from the missing Boeing 777-200.
http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel...-1226875724698

And yet...
The media office of the Joint Agency Coordination Centre said the could not say anything about the signal or whether it had come from MH370.

We are unable to verify any such information at this point in time, the office said.


The new search areas for today do not include the coordinates given by the Chinese, so if JACC cannot confirm the story, if not today, then when?

In 24 hours the pings may be weaker, less frequent, or gone for good...

No matter how unlikely this report may be, no clue should be ignored.
Just the same as any murder inquiry, every witness story is checked out.
They actually have some very precise positioning gear on these ships, like GPS, etc. But the topography can vary by as much as 2,500 meters, so acoustic properties of the FDR/CVR "pinger" can be very subject to distortion, absorption, etc.

They may have to do more searching with the Bluefin 21 and similar kit, but if this is the pinger they have narrowed the search are amazingly.

If JACC announced they were "fairly sure" it was MH370, they'd be figuratively crucified - the reaction would be significantly harsher than the Chinese satellite finds and other non-results.
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Old Apr 5, 2014, 9:03 pm
  #1567  
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Originally Posted by polarbreeze
She would still be swaying with the swell even if the camera is fixed to the deck. And as someone else said, apparently no wind either.
"Lee" means the sheltered side of the ship; the other is the windward side, which nobody would wish to use for videorecording and the wind noise that would be introduced into the audio portion.

JACC: "The weather forecast for today's search is fair, with possible showers in the search area."

I've spent much time on ships of all sizes, sometimes participating in videotaping, I disagree with your conclusions - unless there is significant swell. It could even have been taped against a backdrop or blue screen with a dropped in scenery in an inside space (the latter is most likely.)
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Old Apr 5, 2014, 9:30 pm
  #1568  
 
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JACC News conference

The JACC shall shortly be holding a news conference which may shed light on the discussion. It shall be broadcast live on Australian abc24 news TV chanel. I do not know how to provide a link to live TV.
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Old Apr 5, 2014, 9:40 pm
  #1569  
 
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Originally Posted by JDiver
" It could even have been taped against a backdrop or blue screen with a dropped in scenery in an inside space (the latter is most likely.)
My point exactly - doesn't even need to be on the ship. Very convenient piece of news to pop out at this particular moment.
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Old Apr 5, 2014, 10:00 pm
  #1570  
 
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Interesting discussion on the news - first there is breaking news right now that the Chinese vessel has again detected the ping. But the interesting bit is that the Chinese vessel is operating outside of any designated search area that all participants are supposed to be searching, which is leading to speculation that somehow China has additional information that they are not sharing. This could be why the seemingly biggest lead of a ping detected is seemingly being followed up with not much coordination.

Not to mention China is putting this information out on their state run news, versus actually communicating it to the search command. Why they are doing this is anyone's guess, but it seems really dumb. It's idiotic that the search command has to hear this via the news, and ask China to contact them with the information.

Last edited by Eryeal; Apr 5, 2014 at 10:12 pm
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Old Apr 6, 2014, 12:32 am
  #1571  
 
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Originally Posted by indiekiduk
Why did the Chinese not announce yesterday they heard a beacon for 5 minutes?
Why is it being reported today's new 90 seconds wasn't recorded when they said the next step is sending it to Boeing for verification of a match?
I think you can conclude they recorded the second 90 seconds of signal. If they didn't record it they have nothing to send to Boeing. CNN also reported that the second signal was received 2 kilometers from the first. They may have tried to get closer and lost the signal. It was another day of circling around until they found it again.

Whatever equipment they have, I believe the Chinese are trying very hard to locate the wreckage. It would be good politics and a source of national pride if they located the final resting place of 160 Chinese citizens.

The place they are were searching seems about as good as the spot chosen by the Americans and Australians. Everybody is searching south of the last satellite signal arc. Maybe they got lucky.

Last edited by aBroadAbroad; Apr 6, 2014 at 11:12 am Reason: Fixed source, added link per poster's subsequent post (now deleted)
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Old Apr 6, 2014, 12:51 am
  #1572  
 
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Originally Posted by Eryeal
But the interesting bit is that the Chinese vessel is operating outside of any designated search area that all participants are supposed to be searching, which is leading to speculation that somehow China has additional information that they are not sharing.
Speculative, but I wouldn't be surprised if one or more nations has had a sub sailing along that flight arc for a little while, and the Chinese ones may have a head start on getting to the right area. I don't expect the operating nations to be particularly transparent about what they find where and when. Directing a surface ship to an area identified by the sub would be a good way to mask what really happened.
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Old Apr 6, 2014, 12:55 am
  #1573  
 
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Originally Posted by aussienanna
The JACC shall shortly be holding a news conference which may shed light on the discussion. It shall be broadcast live on Australian abc24 news TV chanel. I do not know how to provide a link to live TV.
You can get a live feed of ABC News24 at http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/
Not sure if it is region locked.
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Old Apr 6, 2014, 1:02 am
  #1574  
 
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Originally Posted by sbrower
That is not a correct conclusion under the facts as they are presently "known."
Originally Posted by sbrower
Someone whose intention was to fly the plane to the end of its fuel range, thereby resulting in the likely demise of everyone onboard, would not leave to chance the timing of the other flight crew member just happening to decide to use the restroom.
But your conclusion isn't entirely fact based either. Waiting for the other crew member to leave may be a lot more sensible that attempting to subdue them. I guess the captain would be able to find any number of tasks to direct the first officer out of the flight deck, but not the other way around.

And working up the chain of assumptions I realise crew hijack is a strong contender, but not a fact.
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Old Apr 6, 2014, 7:17 am
  #1575  
 
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Originally Posted by ExpatExp

Of course, it could be a soundstage, similar ship in port, etc… Bit of an elaborate hoax in that case…
Actually, it came across to me as Chinese State information for the masses. A demonstration video of "how it was done", not necessarily filmed "while it was done".
While it is true that this approach is different from what western eyes might expect, there is no immediate cause for suspicion.

Last edited by Wickerman; Apr 6, 2014 at 7:36 am
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