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Old Jun 12, 12, 6:25 pm   #1
 
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00:39 "...now that Lan is likely to exit its alliance"!!?

I was shocked to hear that Lan is likely to exit its alliance @ 00:39
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/94413...1b-merger.html

I guess MarkXS was right? Post #37
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Old Jun 12, 12, 9:05 pm   #2
 
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If each half is in a different alliance, then don't they have to exit one or the other? I also am surprised that they'd exit oneworld though as implied by that broadcaster.
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Old Jun 13, 12, 7:37 am   #3
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The keyword here is "if". This Bloomberg article suggests that no decision has been announced:

Quote:
While TAP’S routes to Brazil might be especially attractive should Lan Airlines SA of Chile quit IAG’s Oneworld alliance after merging with Sao Paulo-based Tam SA, a member of the rival Star group, Walsh’s acquisition of U.K.-based BMI from Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA) means he now has the slots needed to add flights to growth markets direct from his company’s London Heathrow hub
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ap-appeal.html
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Old Jun 13, 12, 9:48 am   #4
 
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Not gonna happen

AA has got the best route network to South America. I don't see why the best South American carrier would move away from that.
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Old Jun 13, 12, 3:48 pm   #5
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Transferred from MilesBuzz to LAN forum where the Alliance implications of the Lan/Tam merger are often discussed.
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Old Jun 19, 12, 12:25 am   #6
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Blond Kid View Post
AA has got the best route network to South America. I don't see why the best South American carrier would move away from that.
Simple. Because LAN is the best South American carrier, and will get even better with TAM added. LAN doesn't need AA lift to South America. They have huge amounts of their own lift from North America to South America. Now with all of TAM's flights from NYC, MCO, MIA. And LAN Colombia improving their Central America and northern South America connections.

What LATAM would want is better connectivity to the rest of the world, both from South America and via North America. Oneworld is an increasingly shaky alliance of failing carriers and those on peripheries of the action: Siberia, Finland, Spain.

Oneworld: Nobody in Africa. Only a very weakened American in North America, just the USA part of it, with no route network in Canada or Mexico. Only one carrier in Asia. European carriers in the worst connecting hub (by hassle and cost), and on the periphery (IB, Finnair).

Compare to what they get in Star, even assuming US buys AA and AA/US is in oneword so US exits Star: TAP, LH, LX from South America to Europe. South African from South America to Africa. United and Air Canada in North America, both who do provide decent lift into LATAM hubs in LIM, BOG, SCL, EZE, GRU, GIG as well as their North American extensive network. UA's huge Mexico and central american route network gained from CO. Copa's network. Far more choices from the Americas to Asia, with the North American carriers and with Asiana, Thai, Singapore. Air New Zealand pretty much swaps for QANTAS for Australasia. United's Micronesia network inheirited from Continental Mike.

Only problem: arranging to keep AviancaTaca Group from joining Star. So far, they haven't joined Star. Hmm, wonder what the delay is?

Again, I could be utterly wrong. But Star management has talked about recruiting LAN, LAN has talked about "making a decision as to which alliance" rather than coming out and saying "of course we have to bring TAM into oneworld because Chile won't allow us to join Star." And it's 2.5 months overdue for AviancaTaca to join Star. And AV/TA did a huge deal with Skyteam's Aeromexico 1 week before AV/TA was supposed to join Star.
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Old Jun 19, 12, 3:05 am   #7
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkXS View Post
Oneworld: Nobody in Africa.
BA affiliate Comair is in Africa. Oneworld does have someone in Africa. Their problem is the amount of the continent covered, not lack of a current member.
Quote:
Only a very weakened American in North America, just the USA part of it,
AA is not "weakened". They have heaps of cash on hand and are more then capable of exiting Chapter 11 intact and well positioned. AA has a cost problem, not a revenue problem. They are not about to disappear or become drastically smaller
Quote:
with no route network in Canada or Mexico.
MX is still on the books and still has a chance of being revived. Oneworld serves most major cities in Canada. Their problem is domestic flights. Something that can be easily solved.
Quote:
Only one carrier in Asia.
Two carriers in Asia (CX, JL) with two more joining (MH, UL).
Quote:
European carriers in the worst connecting hub (by hassle and cost), and on the periphery (IB, Finnair).
Oneworld European hubs, LHR, MAD, HEL, BER, DUS, AMM, DME. They have hubs surrounding Europe and two hubs in the middle of Europe. Looking at the route maps, Oneworld probably has a better network in Europe then Star does.

Quote:
Air New Zealand pretty much swaps for QANTAS for Australasia.
Sure... a 4 million person market vs a 22 million market.

Quote:
Only problem: arranging to keep AviancaTaca Group from joining Star. So far, they haven't joined Star. Hmm, wonder what the delay is?
There is no delay. Star has always said mid 2012 for AviancaTaca joining the alliance. The April date was unofficial and nothing more then rumor.

LAN leaving oneworld has about the same chances of happening as VS being sold to BA.
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Old Jun 19, 12, 6:07 am   #8
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkXS View Post
Simple. Because LAN is the best South American carrier, and will get even better with TAM added...
I do not know how to quantify the amount of drivel in this single post, but i'd like to know where you got the substance necessary to generate it, as I am in a faraway, forlorn place right now, and taking just a little would make my day happy
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Old Jun 19, 12, 6:18 am   #9
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkXS View Post
Simple. Because LAN is the best South American carrier, and will get even better with TAM added. LAN doesn't need AA lift to South America. They have huge amounts of their own lift from North America to South America. Now with all of TAM's flights from NYC, MCO, MIA. And LAN Colombia improving their Central America and northern South America connections.

What LATAM would want is better connectivity to the rest of the world, both from South America and via North America. Oneworld is an increasingly shaky alliance of failing carriers and those on peripheries of the action: Siberia, Finland, Spain.

Oneworld: Nobody in Africa. Only a very weakened American in North America, just the USA part of it, with no route network in Canada or Mexico. Only one carrier in Asia. European carriers in the worst connecting hub (by hassle and cost), and on the periphery (IB, Finnair).

Compare to what they get in Star, even assuming US buys AA and AA/US is in oneword so US exits Star: TAP, LH, LX from South America to Europe. South African from South America to Africa. United and Air Canada in North America, both who do provide decent lift into LATAM hubs in LIM, BOG, SCL, EZE, GRU, GIG as well as their North American extensive network. UA's huge Mexico and central american route network gained from CO. Copa's network. Far more choices from the Americas to Asia, with the North American carriers and with Asiana, Thai, Singapore. Air New Zealand pretty much swaps for QANTAS for Australasia. United's Micronesia network inheirited from Continental Mike.

Only problem: arranging to keep AviancaTaca Group from joining Star. So far, they haven't joined Star. Hmm, wonder what the delay is?

Again, I could be utterly wrong. But Star management has talked about recruiting LAN, LAN has talked about "making a decision as to which alliance" rather than coming out and saying "of course we have to bring TAM into oneworld because Chile won't allow us to join Star." And it's 2.5 months overdue for AviancaTaca to join Star. And AV/TA did a huge deal with Skyteam's Aeromexico 1 week before AV/TA was supposed to join Star.
Not sure that the German leadership considers Berlin to be on the periphery of Europe.I think Air Berlin is a better catch than that wonderful Greek * alternative.
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Old Jun 19, 12, 12:18 pm   #10
 
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Anything can happen. I will not be surprised. LATAM is the perfect fit to oneworld. But I think the south american business can be tricky. If LATAM decide to switch to star (I mean if). I will not be surprised to see IAG spending a fortune to bid on TAP.

Then again I would not be surprised to see TAM remain in star while LAN in oneworld just like Air China and Cathay Pacific.

Nothing is impossible.
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Old Jun 19, 12, 1:39 pm   #11
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Originally Posted by chongcao View Post
Then again I would not be surprised to see TAM remain in star while LAN in oneworld just like Air China and Cathay Pacific.

Nothing is impossible.
That would be impossible, because the antitrust authorities in Chile have said that LATAM will have to choose an alliance, as in one alliance, and it can't the the one with AV.
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Old Jun 19, 12, 4:19 pm   #12
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That would be impossible, because the antitrust authorities in Chile have said that LATAM will have to choose an alliance, as in one alliance, and it can't the the one with AV.
Is it therefore still a possibility that LATAM could fail to happen if they can't choose an alliance to satisfy the antitrust authorities (and thus the antitrust authorities revoke authorization of the deal as a result)?

Or is LATAM seriously considering SkyTeam? Or is LATAM seriously thinking that AV will fail to go into Star Alliance after all?

It would seem only if one and/or the other of those were the case that they could be considering anything other than OneWorld, right?
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Old Jun 19, 12, 4:34 pm   #13
 
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I Just saw online that Avianca now has an A320 in Star Alliance Livery considering the anti-trust agreement that means TAM has to leave Star Alliance since the merger with LAN according the the Chile Anti-trust agreement the rumours are now that Copa and Avianca-Taca are both joining star Alliance now tomorrow. http://www.lockonaviation.net/html/s...to.php?id=7757 heres the link to the photo of Avianca in Star Alliance livery
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Old Jun 19, 12, 4:57 pm   #14
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Originally Posted by sdsearch View Post
Is it therefore still a possibility that LATAM could fail to happen if they can't choose an alliance to satisfy the antitrust authorities (and thus the antitrust authorities revoke authorization of the deal as a result)?

LATAM, as an entity, should be in existence within a matter of days.
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Old Jun 20, 12, 6:50 pm   #15
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Originally Posted by Eastbay1K View Post
LATAM, as an entity, should be in existence within a matter of days.
But with its single alliance official when?

(Until then, it makes it sounds like they're considering SkyTeam, since that seems the only legal option besides oneworld, and if not considering SkyTeam and thus committed to oneworld, why not announce it officially already? )
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