US-Haneda slot speculation
Jan 24, 2016, 6:45 pm
#1
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US-Haneda slot speculation
Nikkei says the US-Japan negotiations next month will contemplate a total of 12 slot pairs for US-HND flights -- 2 midnight and 10 daytime. So 6 of the existing late-night HND flights will either go away or be changed to daytime hours.
http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXLZO...n_cid=SPTMG002 (Japanese link)
So I guess the questions now are:
(1) Who keeps their night slots? I am guessing that the HNL flights stay in these slots as they are the ones for which the midnight timing makes the most sense. But I like having the midnight option to/from the West Coast so I would want to see those flights stay...
(2) What daytime carrier/route allocation would we get?
JP side: seems obvious that the allocation would be 3x NH, 2x JL. Each would almost certainly want to serve NYC and LAX from HND. The third NH slot would probably be used for either SFO or ORD.
US side: much harder to guess. If I were DOT, I would counter the Japanese government's favoritism for NH by making it 2xAA, 2xDL and 1xUA. AA would probably go for DFW and ORD while UA would probably go for SFO or ORD (whichever one NH didn't take). DL is hardest to guess... SEA? LAX? JFK? ATL? DTW?
http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXLZO...n_cid=SPTMG002 (Japanese link)
So I guess the questions now are:
(1) Who keeps their night slots? I am guessing that the HNL flights stay in these slots as they are the ones for which the midnight timing makes the most sense. But I like having the midnight option to/from the West Coast so I would want to see those flights stay...
(2) What daytime carrier/route allocation would we get?
JP side: seems obvious that the allocation would be 3x NH, 2x JL. Each would almost certainly want to serve NYC and LAX from HND. The third NH slot would probably be used for either SFO or ORD.
US side: much harder to guess. If I were DOT, I would counter the Japanese government's favoritism for NH by making it 2xAA, 2xDL and 1xUA. AA would probably go for DFW and ORD while UA would probably go for SFO or ORD (whichever one NH didn't take). DL is hardest to guess... SEA? LAX? JFK? ATL? DTW?
Jan 24, 2016, 6:54 pm
#2
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Both the Portland and Minneapolis papers have recently carried stories to the effect that Delta is making noises about abandoning the nonstops to NRT that leave from those cities in favor of getting some slots at HND.
Both the PDX<>NRT and MSP<>NRT flights are well patronized, and some of the cynics are suggesting that DL is asking for an "incentive" to stay in those cities.
But that's just a rumor.
Both the PDX<>NRT and MSP<>NRT flights are well patronized, and some of the cynics are suggesting that DL is asking for an "incentive" to stay in those cities.
But that's just a rumor.
Jan 24, 2016, 7:33 pm
#3
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DL is already complaining about this, saying that opening up more slots at HND would put them at disadvantage due to their lack of partnership with Japanese carrier.
http://www.ajc.com/news/business/del...flights/np9C4/
Personally I'm not sympathetic to DL. When it comes to Jpn, they seem to just want slots without any commitment to keep the service going long-term. They've inherited NWA's massive NRT operations, so they should've had a leg up in Jpn. And with AA still having little presence at NRT and UA having scaled back operations at TYO over the past few years, DL has had the opportunity to capitalize if they chose to (although there may be a lot more to that than I realize).
Btw, I'd like to see them keep the late-night flights going at HND. Leaving US late night and returning back from HND ~midnight is brilliant schedule-wise. Lets me put in 1 more whole work day in the US for practically the same amount of time in Jpn, plus the kids sleep for most of the flight.
http://www.ajc.com/news/business/del...flights/np9C4/
Personally I'm not sympathetic to DL. When it comes to Jpn, they seem to just want slots without any commitment to keep the service going long-term. They've inherited NWA's massive NRT operations, so they should've had a leg up in Jpn. And with AA still having little presence at NRT and UA having scaled back operations at TYO over the past few years, DL has had the opportunity to capitalize if they chose to (although there may be a lot more to that than I realize).
Btw, I'd like to see them keep the late-night flights going at HND. Leaving US late night and returning back from HND ~midnight is brilliant schedule-wise. Lets me put in 1 more whole work day in the US for practically the same amount of time in Jpn, plus the kids sleep for most of the flight.
Last edited by evergrn; Jan 24, 2016 at 7:38 pm
Jan 25, 2016, 2:45 am
#4
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I think 12 daytime slots and only 2 evening ones is actually a somewhat worse deal than the previous assumption that 10 new slots (above from the previously rumored 9) would be for the daytime and the existing 8 evening slots would remain. It would also put into question which of the JP carriers will keep its evening slot, which will inevitably be used for HNL. Assuming NH maintains its advantage over JL, we can guess it will keep the slot, but JL would probably lodge a heavy protest in effectively giving up its HND-HNL slot. On the US side, HA would be the top contender.
First Scenario (12 daytime, 2 evening):
NH: JFK, ORD, LAX, HNL (evening)
UA: SFO, IAH
JL: JFK, DFW, SFO or HNL
AA: LAX, ORD
DL: DTW, LAX or SEA
HA: HNL (evening)
Second Scenario (10 daytime, 8 evening):
NH: JFK, ORD, SFO, LAX (evening), HNL (evening)
UA: IAH or GUM, SFO (evening)
JL: JFK, DFW, SFO (evening), HNL (evening)
AA: ORD, LAX (evening)
HA: HNL (evening)
DL: DTW, LAX (evening), SEA
(assuming DL gets 3 and HA gets none)
Going by history with the European flights (only NRT-CDG survived while all other NRT-EU equivalent flights were canned), the Japanese carriers would decrease NRT-equivalent services. JL and NH operate JFK twice a day, so their morning services are a shoe-in. NH also operates ORD twice a day, so the morning one will surely also move to HND. If the first scenario plays out, then NH moves its LAX to the daytime, as does UA with SFO. If the second scenario plays out, NH definitely begins HND-SFO to be more competitive with JL on the route with Japanese customers, to be the only carrier with a daytime HND-West Coast flight, and to further distinguish its SFO and SJC services. UA would have NRT-SFO to itself, as a result.
I can then see UA starting either IAH or GUM; the former would provide a competitive alternative to OW's inevitable HND-DFW flight and make Latin America connections even more appealing, but at the same time, GUM would probably be every bit as successful as HNL (with less competition too). If the second scenario prevails, UA could retime its SFO flight to land at HND at 5AM, a few hours before flying to GUM, increasing aircraft utilization. If UA has two daytime slots, then I don't think GUM makes the cut since a morning NRT flight would outweigh the benefits of a later HND one. For NH or UA, I doubt SJC, SEA, DEN and EWR get HND flights. IAD might be possible, but they control this route together anyway, so why waste it when there are more competitive concerns out there?
In either scenario, JL's second daytime HND flight will probably be DFW. It could also turn out to be ORD, but assuming JL only gets two daytime slots, and assuming they also want to maintain HND-SFO and/or HNL, I doubt they want to waste the slot on a flight NH will also operate (history proves this too, since JL went with CDG/SFO while NH went with FRA/LAX in 2010). As for the potential loss of its evening slots, JL will need to decide whether SFO or HNL goes. If it keeps HNL, it could always restart SFO-NRT, which isn't such a bad idea, but that leaves HND-SFO purely in *A, which is probably not desirable either, and JL with no West Coast-HND service of its own (and there's no way AA keeps LAX-NRT if HND-LAX moves to the daytime).
AA would operate LAX and, depending on what JL chooses for its second slot, DFW or ORD. ORD seems more likely, and it would go head to head with NH on the route with JL's blessing. AA cancels NRT-ORD, and definitely NRT-LAX. Alternatively, either AA or JL can try to start a totally new route, like HND-MIA/PHX, but like DL's MSP/PDX/ATL, they would own such a route to the extent that they might as well operate it from NRT instead. Same goes for SAN and BOS; JL owns these routes, so no need to waste them at HND.
OW is interesting in that they can pretty much do whatever they want with allocating flights. Another possible scenario is that AA operates ORD and DFW, while JL operates SFO, JFK and LAX. I find this one a bit less likely because I'm sure AA wants at least one route that can be reliable even in downturns (LAX, in this case). JL also operates KIX-LAX, so three Japan-LA on its own metal might be too much for it given all the competition on the route and to LAX in general. JL not directly having a piece of the HND-LAX pie might be a sore point, but I think overall it would do better by having NRT-LAX to itself once AA leaves that route.
DL has the most to lose if the first scenario plays out, since it inevitably ends up with fewer than what the second scenario might offer. DL's also the hardest one to predict in either case. If it ends up with two daytime slots, it needs to be DTW and either LAX or SEA (LAX would have stronger O&D, but is also more competitive; meanwhile SEA would be a unique offering but with weaker O&D). If the second scenario plays out and it happens to get three slots, then it will definitely pick DTW (unless they want to go head to head with JL and NH on JFK), SEA and then LAX for the evening. One from the West Coast hub, one from the East Coast hub, and LAX catering to those who may like the evening flights (retimed to arrive at 5AM, of course).
HA could end up with one extra slot, but it could also easily end up with none extra. The DOT may not want to waste another slot on HNL, and even if it did, HA would be confronted with the Narita Rule, which would mean, at minimum, one daytime HND-HNL and a NRT flight; three flights (adding in KOA) a day may be too much for an airline like HA, although if JL exits HND-HNL, HA could find an opportunity here.
No matter what happens, I'm so excited for this. I usually go to the West Coast from Tokyo, so I'm already well served and don't mind the evening time slots. However, it's good to just have more options in general.
First Scenario (12 daytime, 2 evening):
NH: JFK, ORD, LAX, HNL (evening)
UA: SFO, IAH
JL: JFK, DFW, SFO or HNL
AA: LAX, ORD
DL: DTW, LAX or SEA
HA: HNL (evening)
Second Scenario (10 daytime, 8 evening):
NH: JFK, ORD, SFO, LAX (evening), HNL (evening)
UA: IAH or GUM, SFO (evening)
JL: JFK, DFW, SFO (evening), HNL (evening)
AA: ORD, LAX (evening)
HA: HNL (evening)
DL: DTW, LAX (evening), SEA
(assuming DL gets 3 and HA gets none)
Going by history with the European flights (only NRT-CDG survived while all other NRT-EU equivalent flights were canned), the Japanese carriers would decrease NRT-equivalent services. JL and NH operate JFK twice a day, so their morning services are a shoe-in. NH also operates ORD twice a day, so the morning one will surely also move to HND. If the first scenario plays out, then NH moves its LAX to the daytime, as does UA with SFO. If the second scenario plays out, NH definitely begins HND-SFO to be more competitive with JL on the route with Japanese customers, to be the only carrier with a daytime HND-West Coast flight, and to further distinguish its SFO and SJC services. UA would have NRT-SFO to itself, as a result.
I can then see UA starting either IAH or GUM; the former would provide a competitive alternative to OW's inevitable HND-DFW flight and make Latin America connections even more appealing, but at the same time, GUM would probably be every bit as successful as HNL (with less competition too). If the second scenario prevails, UA could retime its SFO flight to land at HND at 5AM, a few hours before flying to GUM, increasing aircraft utilization. If UA has two daytime slots, then I don't think GUM makes the cut since a morning NRT flight would outweigh the benefits of a later HND one. For NH or UA, I doubt SJC, SEA, DEN and EWR get HND flights. IAD might be possible, but they control this route together anyway, so why waste it when there are more competitive concerns out there?
In either scenario, JL's second daytime HND flight will probably be DFW. It could also turn out to be ORD, but assuming JL only gets two daytime slots, and assuming they also want to maintain HND-SFO and/or HNL, I doubt they want to waste the slot on a flight NH will also operate (history proves this too, since JL went with CDG/SFO while NH went with FRA/LAX in 2010). As for the potential loss of its evening slots, JL will need to decide whether SFO or HNL goes. If it keeps HNL, it could always restart SFO-NRT, which isn't such a bad idea, but that leaves HND-SFO purely in *A, which is probably not desirable either, and JL with no West Coast-HND service of its own (and there's no way AA keeps LAX-NRT if HND-LAX moves to the daytime).
AA would operate LAX and, depending on what JL chooses for its second slot, DFW or ORD. ORD seems more likely, and it would go head to head with NH on the route with JL's blessing. AA cancels NRT-ORD, and definitely NRT-LAX. Alternatively, either AA or JL can try to start a totally new route, like HND-MIA/PHX, but like DL's MSP/PDX/ATL, they would own such a route to the extent that they might as well operate it from NRT instead. Same goes for SAN and BOS; JL owns these routes, so no need to waste them at HND.
OW is interesting in that they can pretty much do whatever they want with allocating flights. Another possible scenario is that AA operates ORD and DFW, while JL operates SFO, JFK and LAX. I find this one a bit less likely because I'm sure AA wants at least one route that can be reliable even in downturns (LAX, in this case). JL also operates KIX-LAX, so three Japan-LA on its own metal might be too much for it given all the competition on the route and to LAX in general. JL not directly having a piece of the HND-LAX pie might be a sore point, but I think overall it would do better by having NRT-LAX to itself once AA leaves that route.
DL has the most to lose if the first scenario plays out, since it inevitably ends up with fewer than what the second scenario might offer. DL's also the hardest one to predict in either case. If it ends up with two daytime slots, it needs to be DTW and either LAX or SEA (LAX would have stronger O&D, but is also more competitive; meanwhile SEA would be a unique offering but with weaker O&D). If the second scenario plays out and it happens to get three slots, then it will definitely pick DTW (unless they want to go head to head with JL and NH on JFK), SEA and then LAX for the evening. One from the West Coast hub, one from the East Coast hub, and LAX catering to those who may like the evening flights (retimed to arrive at 5AM, of course).
HA could end up with one extra slot, but it could also easily end up with none extra. The DOT may not want to waste another slot on HNL, and even if it did, HA would be confronted with the Narita Rule, which would mean, at minimum, one daytime HND-HNL and a NRT flight; three flights (adding in KOA) a day may be too much for an airline like HA, although if JL exits HND-HNL, HA could find an opportunity here.
No matter what happens, I'm so excited for this. I usually go to the West Coast from Tokyo, so I'm already well served and don't mind the evening time slots. However, it's good to just have more options in general.
Last edited by FireEmblemPride; Jan 25, 2016 at 2:55 am
Jan 25, 2016, 10:17 pm
#5
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One thing that hasn't been clear to me is the nighttime slots - could someone like HA (or NH or JL), for example, run HNL-HND arriving in the afternoon, then have the HND-HNL flight be using a nighttime slot? I would actually imagine a flight like this being reasonably successful, as the nighttime departure would allow people to work basically a full day (even in Japan, if you say you have a flight you can leave without overtime) and then allow people to connect back when they arrive.
Jan 26, 2016, 12:27 am
#6
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I doubt that would work, if only because someone else would have to accept the much worse combination of nighttime arrival and daytime departure.
Jan 27, 2016, 12:55 am
#7
Join Date: Mar 2005
Programs: UA MP
Posts: 1,658
It all depends how the language regarding slots is written. It could be that one slot is simply the right to have one takeoff or landing and that the agreement specifies that two slots are available (not specifying that the late night slots are one takeoff and one landing).
Jan 27, 2016, 1:50 am
#8
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: SFO
Posts: 181
They better keep the current SFO <-> HND schedule for JL. I like how I can hop on the flight at midnight from SFO, get a full day in Tokyo after arrival, then leave at midnight from Tokyo back to SFO for a short evening rest. Not much time wasted.
Feb 18, 2016, 6:46 pm
#9
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It's official -- 10 daytime slot pairs and 2 nighttime slot pairs, split 50/50 between the US and Japan.
http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Econ...Haneda-airport
We should learn the final allocation among Japanese airlines by April, but early reports indicate that ANA will get four slot pairs and JAL will get only two. Sigh.
http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Econ...Haneda-airport
We should learn the final allocation among Japanese airlines by April, but early reports indicate that ANA will get four slot pairs and JAL will get only two. Sigh.
Feb 19, 2016, 3:40 pm
#10
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Posts: 1,418
pure speculation and incomplete (basically just for fun):
HA: Honolulu, Kahului (both nights)
AA: LA
UA: SF
DL: JFK
Who would take the sixth? ORD, DFW, SEA....PHX, DEN, IAD, IAH? I think the three majors get one each, HA gets the two nights, and they fight over the fourth day slot.
As for the Japanese carriers, I imagine they both move one of their JFK flights to HND, keep their SF/LAX HND slots and......HNL?
HA: Honolulu, Kahului (both nights)
AA: LA
UA: SF
DL: JFK
Who would take the sixth? ORD, DFW, SEA....PHX, DEN, IAD, IAH? I think the three majors get one each, HA gets the two nights, and they fight over the fourth day slot.
As for the Japanese carriers, I imagine they both move one of their JFK flights to HND, keep their SF/LAX HND slots and......HNL?
Feb 24, 2016, 5:31 pm
#11
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Some within the LDP are now calling for a 3:3 split between ANA and JAL, saying that times have changed. But 4:2 still seems to be the operating assumption.
http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXLAS...?n_cid=kobetsu
http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXLAS...?n_cid=kobetsu
メンバーからは公的支援で再生を果たした日航に新たな枠を配分することに慎重論も出た一方、「状況は変化し ており、平等に検討すべきだ」と日航に配慮する発言もあった。関係者の間では「全日空４便・日航２便」を軸 に調整が進むとの見方が多い。
Feb 24, 2016, 6:18 pm
#12
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Some within the LDP are now calling for a 3:3 split between ANA and JAL, saying that times have changed. But 4:2 still seems to be the operating assumption.
http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXLAS...?n_cid=kobetsu
http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXLAS...?n_cid=kobetsu
Apr 22, 2016, 3:04 am
#15
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Well, here are the contestants...
Delta - wants LAX, MSP and ATL, all daytime. MSP is a bit of a surprise -- they argue that it's a more direct and less congested transfer point than ORD (apparently assuming that United and/or American would ask for ORD, which neither did).
United - wants SFO and EWR, both daytime.
American - wants LAX and DFW, both daytime.
Hawaiian - wants to keep their HNL flight in daytime slots, and then "split" another slot pair for 3x weekly KOA and 4x weekly HNL, with 17:20 arrival and 20:30 departure at HND (in addition to their existing slot pair for HNL service). Finally, they ask for a nighttime HNL flight. As the only carrier asking for the nighttime slot pair, I guess they are a shoo-in.
Delta - wants LAX, MSP and ATL, all daytime. MSP is a bit of a surprise -- they argue that it's a more direct and less congested transfer point than ORD (apparently assuming that United and/or American would ask for ORD, which neither did).
United - wants SFO and EWR, both daytime.
American - wants LAX and DFW, both daytime.
Hawaiian - wants to keep their HNL flight in daytime slots, and then "split" another slot pair for 3x weekly KOA and 4x weekly HNL, with 17:20 arrival and 20:30 departure at HND (in addition to their existing slot pair for HNL service). Finally, they ask for a nighttime HNL flight. As the only carrier asking for the nighttime slot pair, I guess they are a shoo-in.
