Akihabara

I am sure some of you probably saw these numbers in the media* during this week, but I thought I'd share these amazing statistics with you all on this forum.

Japan has certainly come a long way since the dark times of mid-2011.

- 19.73 Million visitors to Japan in 2015, a 47.3% increase on the 2014 number
- First time in 45 years that the number of incoming exceeding outbound
- Almost 4 times the 2013 number in 5.21 Million
- Spending yoy up 71.5% to 3.48 trillion yen

Breakdown in tourists from the top countries as follows:
China - 4.99 Million (more than double the year before)
South Korea - 4 Million
Taiwan - 3.67 Million
Hong Kong - 1.52 Million

*Japan times January 24

RichardInSF

I would guess that when the Yen next strengthens, this gain will reverse. I would guess that Chinese visits are already moderating due to the economic issues there.

Akihabara

Yes, it will be interesting to see what happens if the yen significantly strengthens again.

As for visitors from China, I can't say I have seen any slowdown.. rather the opposite to be honest.

I think I am seeing more and more busloads of Chinese tourists in the area I live that I've ever seen before...maybe it's just what I am exposed to.

Someone must be making a pretty penny...!

evergrn

I also feel like it's only picking up. I'm seeing unprecedented things. Lot of Asian tourists in places I would've never expected to see them a couple years ago. In mundane supermarkets and drugstores at places like Hachioji. Even last year, there were hardly any foreigners (other than some businessmen presumably visiting Toshiba) at the hotel we stay at in Kawasaki. This year half the guests at the breakfast buffet were Asian tourists. Skyliner's luggage racks were completely full after Ueno, before Nippori. ANA check-in (Y) was 40 minutes! Security at NRT T1 took ~15min... usually never takes more than a couple minutes. Huge lines at all the major airside Fasola stores.

As much as I hate driving in Jpn, this summer I'm definitely not taking express trains in Hokkaido. Damn near impossible to get reserved seating on any trains in Hokkaido last summer, even several days in advance. Anyways, I sound like I'm complaining, but this is a good thing for Jpn.

AlwaysAisle

Yes, the increase of non-Japanese visitors is also contributing factor in shortage of hotel rooms in Japan. How many posts have we seen here saying “No hotel availability, what is going on?”

The latest I heard on the news regarding Chinese visitors. Many in Japan are worried that number of Chinese visitors will decrease due to economy slowdown of China, but the number of Chinese visitors has not decreased yet. 2015 number showed that February (Chinese New Year) 2015 had 160% increase of Chinese visitor compare with February 2014. The number is not finalized yet, but initial survey showed that December 2015 (last month) showed 83% increase of Chinese visitor compare with December 2014.

But I do agree that most people in Japan see these increase of Chinese visitors is short term, and will not last. What I am worried is that so many businesses are now dependent on Chinese visitors. Most department stores in Tokyo are now heavily dependent on Chinese visitors. Department stores are one which had difficult time recovering from burst of bubble economy in Japan. Today, many department stores have seen increase in sales due to Chinese visitors and employing Chinese speaking staff.

I saw same thing at Yodobashi Camera at Shinjuku. Saw that about half of store staff were Chinese speaking. All Chinese speaking staff at Yodobashi Camera also spoke Japanese, I guessed that one of employment conditions is that Chinese staff also have to speak Japanese. However, from accent it was obvious that a person is not a native Japanese speaker. I looked the name tag and had Chinese name, then I looked around and about half of staff were Chinese speaking staff.

My worry is that if Chinese visitors decrease or when Chinese visitors stop buying all those items during their Japanese trip (which is commonly referred as 「爆買」in Japanese media), then many department stores in Tokyo will suffer big time from loss of business. Decline of Chinese visitors will likely hurt economy in Japan. I will not be surprise to see if some of department stores or other business will go belly up and declare bankruptcy.

LapLap

I can't imagine that many of the shopping malls in Odaiba surviving a sharp decline in Chinese visitors.

MSPeconomist

I can't imagine major Japanese department stores going bankrupt.

AlwaysAisle

There have been no major department stores went belly up and disappeared after burst of bubble economy in Japan. However, there were more than few big department stores disappeared in Japan, all could not recover since burst of bubble economy.

Isetan Mitsukoshi Ltd. was formed by merger of Isetan and Mitsukoshi on 2011. Daimaru Matsuzakaya Department Stores Co. Ltd. was formed by merger of Daimaru and Matsuzakaya on 2007. Sogo and Seibu Co. Ltd. was formed by merger of Sogo and Seibu on 2005.

All above were mergers of major department stores in Japan which took place after burst of bubble economy in Japan. Most department stores had very difficult time recovering from burst of bubble economy and if it was not mergers, above department stores could have gone belly up and disappeared.

Most department stores in Japan keep no secret that they finally climbing out of burst of bubble economy big part due to those Chinese visitors to Japan.

evergrn

In addition to hiring foreign staff, I've also noticed that some department stores have actually gone as far as to construct a whole new tax refund center.

bmwe92fan

Was out shopping in Ginza last night and it was absolutely mobbed with mainly chinese tourists. Busload after busload. There is an amazing, really cheap luggage shop on the main street in Ginza that sells hundreds if not thousands of hardside suitcases for 5k - 6k yen every day - the lines of tourists go out the door all day long. They buy these massive things and then hit the shops - the issue for the Japanese economy from a retail perspective is that these tourists aren't buying the high end stuff - they are buying low to mid-range products - i.e. Zara, H&M, A&F, even Gap and massive numbers of small appliances like mixers lol, but the watch shops, high end clothing and products such as crystal & china, high end leather products, even high end shops like Prada and Burberry - they just aren't moving nearly as fast as they used to - it's a real problem and not just confined to Japan....

evergrn

Hmm, that's better than me. In Jpn, we stock up on most of the stuff at supermarkets, Sun Drugs, Daiso, Can-Do, Shimamura, Uniqlo, Bookoff. In HKG, we don't buy anything. I'm Japanese btw.

Anyways, it seems like high-end brands are in trouble elsewhere, not just Jpn.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...2a4_story.html

I was in Vegas a week ago. People walk through this high-end mall (Gucci, L.Vuitton, etc) on a portion of the Strip. Tons of foot traffic through the mall. Not a single customer in any of the stores.

shuigao

The first time I visited Sushi Dai was I think 2010 or 2011. Had a 90-minute queue and I thought it was ridiculous.

Last year my brother paid a visit during Sakura season and he queue'ed over 4 hours ...

acregal

Sogo actually did go bankrupt years ago.

Chinese people buy smaller things (such as makeup and electronics) because they don't trust the stuff in China. Aeon Dome City in Osaka has signs up (in Japanese only) saying there is a limit on how many packages of diapers you can buy.

China is a country of more than 1 billion people - the two things that can stop this are a tightening of visa regulations or Chinese people trusting stuff made in China.

If you walk around shopping areas in big cities in the US (New York or Chicago, for example) there are tons of foreigners shopping there. I was in Chicago for Christmas and saw people buying hundreds of dollars of stuff at once at Macy's and Banana Republic.

shinjukuflyer

At a recent trip to the Apple store in Shibuya the store clerk told me that when the new models came out tourists were buying 30 (!) phones at a time.

5khours

The published numbers just confirm what anyone walking around Harajuku or Ginza already knew. I don't see any reason it's going to decline. Disposable income is still going up in China. And BTW, it's not just Japan. You see the same thing in Bangkok, Rome, or Yellowstone Park.