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The Myth of Diamond Saturation

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Old Feb 10, 2015, 11:10 pm
  #46  
 
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Originally Posted by hailstorm
No. The Traditional Real Diamonds® probably behaved as they always did. I'm suggesting that there is a new class of Real Diamonds® that take advantage of the enlarged, value-priced Hyatt Place presence.

Based on the increase in Hyatt Place hotels, more regular people have the opportunity to become Diamonds, who by nature spend far less than the executives that get their status from Park Hyatts.
I'm not buying it. There has been a commensurate increase in FS Hyatts; in fact, I'd speculate that there have been a greater increase in FS rooms than limited service rooms. Present some data to back up your thesis. I can make up stuff too, but I've provided data to rebut you. Besides, REVPAR has increased since 2009 (I can provide that data if once you provide data indicating that Diamonds are shifting from FS to limited service hotels). The standard you set in this discussion/debate is that we back up our statements with hard data. Again,
Originally Posted by hailstorm
Based on what?
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Old Feb 10, 2015, 11:42 pm
  #47  
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I don't have the time or inclination to research and cross-reference the opening of all full service and select service Hyatt openings over the past five years at this time.

Regardless, your sidebars are irrelevant to my original point. I did not argue that there are not more Diamonds now that there were before, nor that the increase was not attributable to people that spend less than previous Diamonds; I said that, based on statistics for the entire client base, it is not reasonable to assume that Diamonds are crowding each other out for benefits except for the most aspirational times and places.
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Old Feb 11, 2015, 1:30 am
  #48  
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Originally Posted by hailstorm
I don't have the time or inclination to research and cross-reference the opening of all full service and select service Hyatt openings over the past five years at this time.
No the 5 minutes you spent looking at another blog was enough for your conclusion... don't spent more time, you might learn something you don't like.
Do some cross-checking with the yearly reporting and you will see that most of your assumptions were wrong. Just like your rooms number per property and just like your calculation of Diamond per property.... and averages have no meaning here either, especially not when you continue to use them for "aspirational properties and times".

Last edited by RTW1; Feb 11, 2015 at 1:42 am
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Old Feb 11, 2015, 1:39 am
  #49  
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Originally Posted by iflyjetz
I'm not buying it. There has been a commensurate increase in FS Hyatts; in fact, I'd speculate that there have been a greater increase in FS rooms than limited service rooms. Present some data to back up your thesis. I can make up stuff too, but I've provided data to rebut you.
Unfortunately we would need more data than is publicly available for that.... the only meaningful numbers in this discussion would be if we had an inkling how many nights of that average 40 would be spent at the different brands and preferably locations. And we simply don't have that...nor will we get it.

It's easy to see from the yearly reporting what the averages are and how the labels have been developing (HP/HH now a total of 20+% of all rooms worldwide and HR 50+%) but without details about Diamond spent at the different properties we will learn nothing, just that there are 37000 Diamond members on average (whatever that means with the 60 days for the trail).

That's what's so annoying about this thread. The data to draw any meaningful conclusions just isn't there. So people see what they want to see.
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Old Feb 11, 2015, 2:13 am
  #50  
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Originally Posted by RTW1
No the 5 minutes you spent looking at another blog was enough for your conclusion... don't spent more time, you might learn something you don't like.
Do some cross-checking with the yearly reporting and you will see that most of your assumptions were wrong. Just like your rooms number per property and just like your calculation of Diamond per property.... and averages have no meaning here either, especially not when you continue to use them for "aspirational properties and times".
So you demand an analysis from me, then in your very next post:

Originally Posted by RTW1
Unfortunately we would need more data than is publicly available for that.... the only meaningful numbers in this discussion would be if we had an inkling how many nights of that average 40 would be spent at the different brands and preferably locations. And we simply don't have that...nor will we get it.
You admit that it's impossible for me to do so.

Originally Posted by RTW1
That's what's so annoying about this thread. The data to draw any meaningful conclusions just isn't there. So people see what they want to see.
I agree. I overestimated people's ability to combine data with common sense.
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Old Feb 11, 2015, 7:11 am
  #51  
 
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Originally Posted by hailstorm
I overestimated people's ability to combine data with common sense.
Au contraire. I think you underestimated people's ability to disregard useless data.
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Old Feb 11, 2015, 7:34 am
  #52  
 
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Originally Posted by hailstorm
No. The Traditional Real Diamonds® probably behaved as they always did. I'm suggesting that there is a new class of Real Diamonds® that take advantage of the enlarged, value-priced Hyatt Place presence.

Based on the increase in Hyatt Place hotels, more regular people have the opportunity to become Diamonds, who by nature spend far less than the executives that get their status from Park Hyatts.

At least for me this premise is completely false. First, there is no value for Diamonds at Hyatt Place/Hyatt House, you get the same thing Joe Q Public gets (free breakfast and internet). I didn't even get my 500 Pts the times I have stayed at Hyatt Place and now if the only Hyatt around is a Hyatt Place/House, I will go with the HGI/Homewood/Embassy Suites/Doubletree instead. Second, the cost differential is often not that big (not talking Andaz or Park Hyatt obviously, Hyatt & Hyatt Regency). While a regular guest would gravitate to Hyatt Place because it does include free breakfast and internet, a Diamond is actually better off paying the $10-20 bucks more to stay at the other Hyatts. And no I am not exaggerating on the price differential, it is often not that much at all considering its a much nicer set up (at least in my opinion) Incidentally, this logic also applies over at Hilton with Hampton in that it doesn't make sense to stay at a Hampton for Diamond unless its the only Hilton around.
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Old Feb 11, 2015, 11:29 am
  #53  
 
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Originally Posted by hailstorm
Grand Hyatt Tokyo January 2014 (New Years): 2 nights, success
Park Hyatt Tokyo May 2014 (Golden Week): 2 nights, success
Andaz Maui August 2014: 3 nights, success
Park Hyatt Tokyo December 2014 (New Years): 2 nights, success
Hyatt Regency Tokyo Summer 2015: 7 nights, success

Mostly aspirational properties (and I personally find the Hyatt Regency Tokyo Atrium Suite rather aspirational)

But I guess my anecdotal evidence means nothing because you are having problems, and it's your experiences that deserve to be extrapolated.
yep, for any particular person YMMV...

for example, I have tried 5 times for DSU's at HR - Tokyo over the past 3 years = 0 for 5
I see you are booked for summer (ie, 6+ months ahead). In general, my travel cannot be confirmed that far out. I'm generally 2-3 weeks...a few others:

GH Seoul - 5 nights this past Aug = No (requested ~3 weeks out)
GH Seoul - 7 nights in Oct = Yes, but for only 2 nights, so had to "room swap" (1st 3 nights were no, then 2 yes, then back to 2 no)

Actually used a DSU for a 1-nite stay at PH - DC in Dec, just because I wasn't going to be able to use/book before Feb 28. Still have 2 left trying to use...oh well, that's life
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Old Feb 11, 2015, 12:42 pm
  #54  
 
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Originally Posted by RTW1
Unfortunately we would need more data than is publicly available for that.... the only meaningful numbers in this discussion would be if we had an inkling how many nights of that average 40 would be spent at the different brands and preferably locations. And we simply don't have that...nor will we get it.
There's actually a lot of data out there, including the exact percentage mix of each brand within Hyatt's chain from 2009 to 2013 including RevPar, ADR, and occupancy - data which clearly proves my point. I bookmarked some of it and was going to start to put it all together but I'm not going to take the time to do that since Hailstorm's thrown in the towel.
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Old Feb 11, 2015, 2:12 pm
  #55  
 
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Originally Posted by stargold
I would hazard a guess that, out of the total number of challenges issued, the percentage completed is a very, very small. 1 in 50 wouldn't surprise me, if not worse.

It was just too easy to sign up, and gave away far too much upon sign up.
This I gather is the initial deal, and then goes to the point of the more people going after the same set of aspirational properties (after all, that is the point there)....
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Old Feb 11, 2015, 10:32 pm
  #56  
 
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Originally Posted by WoofusMaximus
This I gather is the initial deal, and then goes to the point of the more people going after the same set of aspirational properties (after all, that is the point there)....
Yes, because people with no status anywhere would somehow find a way of getting HHonors Gold, then sign up to the Diamond Trial for their once- or twice-yearly vacation to the exotic properties, first utilising the 60 days of Diamond and then (if they haven't done so already) use up the remaining DSUs which were valid till 28 Feb of the following year.

I mean, if that's not giving the shop away, I don't know what is. Sure, many people (myself included) completed the challenge and will likely remain Diamond for many years, but I really think there are literally 50 people with no intention of completing the Trial at all for every one person who wanted the Trial for the intended purpose.
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Old Feb 11, 2015, 10:46 pm
  #57  
 
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.....

Last edited by angatol; Mar 1, 2015 at 1:16 am
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Old Feb 12, 2015, 4:29 am
  #58  
 
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Originally Posted by stargold
Yes, because people with no status anywhere would somehow find a way of getting HHonors Gold, then sign up to the Diamond Trial for their once- or twice-yearly vacation to the exotic properties, first utilising the 60 days of Diamond and then (if they haven't done so already) use up the remaining DSUs which were valid till 28 Feb of the following year.

I mean, if that's not giving the shop away, I don't know what is. Sure, many people (myself included) completed the challenge and will likely remain Diamond for many years, but I really think there are literally 50 people with no intention of completing the Trial at all for every one person who wanted the Trial for the intended purpose.
Hilton Gold = free with credit card. You could also have IHG Plat. IHG Plat = free with credit card. http://millionmilesecrets.com/2014/0...ond-challenge/
http://onemileatatime.boardingarea.c...ules-and-tips/

There are a lot of threads here where people have mentioned that they're only doing it for a big vacation/they can always do the Trial again next year.
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Old Feb 12, 2015, 5:06 am
  #59  
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Originally Posted by OsakaWino
Au contraire. I think you underestimated people's ability to disregard useless data.
I couldn't have said it better myself.

But I guess if the point that the data cannot be used to draw conclusions about Diamond levels at specific properties is not understood by now, it never will.
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Old Feb 12, 2015, 5:12 am
  #60  
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Originally Posted by iflyjetz
There's actually a lot of data out there, including the exact percentage mix of each brand within Hyatt's chain from 2009 to 2013 including RevPar, ADR, and occupancy - data which clearly proves my point. I bookmarked some of it and was going to start to put it all together but I'm not going to take the time to do that since Hailstorm's thrown in the towel.
I know there is a lot of data out there... But the one thing I've never seen (and don't expect to either) is occupancy or revenue at a specific property (or even among the brands/labels) linked to GP status.

So there really is no way to say with any certainty how many Diamonds are staying at the Andaz Maui or PH Tokyo (not even on average, let alone on peak travel times). And that's what the point of this thread seemed to be.

I can only assume most averages won't apply for Diamonds.... But what do I really know, maybe a lot of Diamond nights are actually spent at HP's. I doubt it, but I haven't seen anything to disprove it either. It is a cheap way to get to 25 stays and since the average is 40 nights, who really knows but GP.

Reality is probably that there will be different types of Diamonds... Those that tend to stay mostly in the more expensice properties and generate a lot of nights and revenue. And those that barely qualify and need some of those "cheap" nights to do so. And I bet US-based or not US-based (or travelling to) makes a substantial differrence as well......

Last edited by RTW1; Feb 12, 2015 at 5:23 am
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