delawareguy

The email was surprising to me because it was pretty long, it went into a lot more detail than the frontier spokesman or the news reports. He seemed very honest in saying that they were losing money on ILG and that over the winter they would be working on lowering their break even levels(more seats?) and try to find better routes and schedules. In fact, he said that in another situation, ILG would have been abandoned completely but apparently Governor Jack Markell somehow persuaded them to keep ILG alive and give it another chance. Now that in itself is not very reassuring however, after sending a follow up email asking if service to the 4 suspended cities would be coming back, he said Denver was definitely coming back and the others really depended on whether they could find another plane, something they are "actively" searching for. Overall though, I feel the letter was honest about the status of ILG, simply because of the detail it went into.

So to be honest when this spring schedule comes out in a few months, it may just be MCO, TPA and DEN. It may also include MDW and ATL. It may even include some new routes which has been suggested by both Stephen William, the DRBA airport director and the CEO. So I guess we will just have to wait and see.

winstoda

I'll certainly have my fingers crossed after the winter. I think if Frontier leaves we'll end up with something like Allegiant (which isn't all that different than the Florida only schedule) but that would be a shame because with Frontier at least we have the hope of expanded markets. I hope the DRBA doesn't get in the way in any event... they need to keep their projects reasonable. I get the feeling they're itching to start charging for parking for example... and the state of affairs is too fragile for that right now.

delawareguy

Your right, ILG is way too fragile to charge for parking. It is still in developmental flying according to Dave Siegel. When ILG goes a full year without any loss of service then they can follow the TTN route and consider charging for parking and maybe updating the terminal. At the end of the day, I would be happy with Florida and DEN. Anything else is icing on the cake. If Frontier pulls out, Allegiant should definitely move in. ILG has definitely proven its capable of supporting Florida service.

rtalk25

I'm still not 100% convinced that Southwest plans on keeping PHL-ATL especially when it dropped PHL-RDU and a number of PHL routes as well as a few ATL routes. Id guess 75% chance it remains.

Southwest just operates it 3x daily this Fall, down from 5x when AirTran used to operate it, along with 2x daily from ACY-ATL, and 3x daily was PHL-RDU's frequency before it was cut altogether.

If Southwest does end the route, I think it should give ILG-ATL better restoration prospects for Frontier. It could be just that Southwest downsizes PHL-ATL when it seasonally flies PHL-FLL but will restore service when FLL is seasonally suspended.

TTN-ATL for Frontier might have a little boost already with Southwest/AirTran not servicing EWR-ATL and in general with EWR-ATL nonstop fares being very high.

rtalk25

Chicago's peak season is the Summer. Hotel rooms in downtown are generally twice or thrice the rates otherwise. I think Chicago's peak season is inverse to So. Florida's peak season.

I don't know about Atlanta as much but I think it's Spring/Summer as well atleast by Spirit's ACY operation which is nearby and similar to Frontier's ULCC operation at ILG and TTN. VFR movement is likely year round but stronger in the Summer but that applies to most destinations except Florida.

Spirit flies ATL DTW BOS and ORD in the Summer out of ACY and has been doing so for years, but it cuts back its Florida schedule then.

Minneapolis also is nice in the summer (Spirit flies DTW-MSP seasonally and Frontier flies TTN-MSP seasonally), but it's not in the Winter, so MSP likely has peak season like Chicago.

It's still keeping TTN-CVG in the Winter, while CVG has little to no destination appeal for TTN pax that don't have relatives out there, and listing MKE as seasonal while CLE is just discontinued. While I generally agree that pax don't like to fly to cold cities for leisure during the Winter, I have to believe that there is some other strategic reason to keep some cold cities out of TTN like CVG while CLE gets cut.

I think the shifting of TTN-CLE's schedule so much might have hurt the route. It's flying a Saturday evening flight, instead of Sunday, which is pretty lousy as most want to be with their family or friends (perhaps at a party or dining out) rather than travel on that time.

And possibly, Frontier wants pax to support CLE-LGA instead. From NJ, one would have to take a train to Penn Station in NY, and then hail a cab (if a cab is available) to get to LGA however which is way out of the way. Anywhere below Mercer County, it's easier using Southwest out of BWI for a low fare (or one below $100 if booked in advance).

One could fly TTN-DTW on the Thursday/Sunday frequency, rent a car at DTW and drive 2 hrs back to CLE if visiting relatives in CLE region. It still likely beats driving 8 hrs directly to CLE. USAirways generally charges very high for one-way trips from PHL-CLE or same week r/t to markets like CLE without LCC competition. The only discount US seems to offer is for a round-trip spanning more than one week at about $350 if booked advance.

I'm hoping for PIT service eventually and maybe culling TTN-CLE and starting TTN-PIT will increase the viability of the latter market.

RobS

Drive to TTN 30 mins; wait at TTN 45 mins; fly to DTW 90 mins; get rental car 45 mins; drive to CLE 160 mins = about 6+ hours if all goes well. Considering the loss of departure timing flexibility involved in flying, driving is pretty competitive door-to-door over this distance.

CLE-TTN may just be too short a route for Frontier's purposes.

delawareguy

I was just checking on the Wilmington Airport Facebook page and was shocked to see the attention ILG is starting to get. They have recently started a marketing campaign in celebration of one year of service. They are giving gift bags away daily and travel gift cards weekly. They've gone from 1000 likes to 7100 in about 3 weeks, they've added 2100 in just the last week. 3000 are "talking" about ILG, that's 3 times as many as Frontiers Facebook page. Now on Thursday, popular WSTW DJ Mike Rossi will be live at a Wilmington Airport Block Party giving away freebies. This in comparison to TTN which has a barely functioning website(though I will give props to jerseyguy for his unofficial website) and no social media presence.

rtalk25

Driving to Cleveland from NJ or Philadelphia region would pretty much require a full day each way back and forth, limiting most trips to one day with family assuming Friday is taken off for the drive.

CLE-ORD is a shorter route, straight drive route as well with MegaBus, low fare air carrier, Southwest via MDW, and Frontier added this city pair, so I don't believe it's of length.

Flying to DTW won't work for everyone just like flying to CAK won't either, or flying out of EWR instead of PHL.

But, based on the winter schedule, one could fly out TTN-DTW Thursday night, spend a night at DTW hotel, and then rent car at DTW next morning and drive to Cleveland and be at parent's home (let's say visiting parents) by noon, and leave Sunday evening back to DTW. That's about 2 full days of time with family.

Southwest offers BWI-CLE but it can take 2-2.5 hrs to reach BWI but atleast it's offered consistently for about $200 r/t if booked in advance.

Southwest discounts PHL-ATL-CAK more than PHL-MDW-CLE, as did AirTran. The low fare calendar of Southwest shows about $133 one-way for PHL-ATL-CAK, $161 one-way for PHL-MDW-CLE and varying for EWR, but as low as $77 one-way for EWR-MDW-CLE during middle of week. Weekends are higher however, but many $131 fares on Fridays.

winstoda

They do a nice job on Facebook... I 'liked' them awhile back and see their posts. But I don't know how well they're doing otherwise (not just on them - it's on F9 too). I've spoken to a bunch of people heading to Chicago, Atlanta and Disney the last month or so in both the Middletown and Newark areas. None were aware of F9's service. They knew there was some kind of air service out of ILG but no details. Two booked trips from BWI, the others out of PHL. Now I'm not trying to say the people I've spoken to are a representative sample of the overall NCCo population but I think F9 needs to do a better job. Outside of a few local spots on my Verizon tv I've seen no television commercials on the major Philly channels. I've seen nothing in the News Journal either (from an advertising perspective). The airport is trying but they need F9's help.

delawareguy

They have a billboard at Frawley Stadium, i guess their the official airline of the blue rocks. There are also ads on DART buses. There used to be ads on delawareonline until they changed the website design. I saw some billboards on 95 driving through philly. I also have heard radio ads and i saw a tv ad like a year ago but not since then. I also saw ads in News Journal. But alot of this was 3 minths ago or more.

rtalk25

deleted.

winstoda

I think the issue is that while people might be aware Frontier is here (via the billboards - I didn't know of them as I work from home) they aren't aware where they fly. The current highway situation doesn't help if those billboards are the primary advertising vehicle... I know I and many of my south of the canal friends avoid Wilmington like the plague this summer. No Blue Rocks for us until they open 495. I don't know how you overcome the natural inclination that's drilled into a Delawarean's head who's always gone to USAir's website or Southwest's website when you're flying from here... but I don't think they've cracked it.

rtalk25

I don't think Frontier chose ILG for it's immediate Northern Delaware population, no offense. BWI, a low fare airport, is just too close. Numbers wise: New Castle, Kent and Cecil MD are under 1 million residents, while Philly's CSA has 7 million residents, thus the local is 1/7 of the region. It was a bracketing for PHL with TTN in the north, ILG to the south of PHL, 30-40 miles each side.

It wasn't a bad approach but TTN always had the advantage with no low fare airport nearby and TTN's 60 mile radius encompassing much more population and getting well into Central and Northern NJ to pull from along with just Philly's MSA.

delawareguy

Yeah, like the blue rocks billboard just says flyfrontier.com but how are you supposed to know where they go. TTN area flyers may be more open to checking out Frontier because its more of a hassle to get to PHL. Maybe they shouldnt have built it up so quickly(which may work for large airports like CLE and IAD) and instead started with Florida and then added more routes(which worked with TTN) and thats what I think theyre doing now, trying to reset ILG.

winstoda

Delaware has no broadcast TV stations of consequence. We watch Philly affiliates in NCCo, Philly and Baltimore in Kent, mostly Baltimore in Sussex. Whether they are targeting Delaware residents or could care less about us, advertising on Philly television is a no brainer since the audience is inclusive of us.