rtalk25

Would there likely be an ILG-DTW replacement for the September to December schedule?

For August and early September, the ILG based plane is operating SUN TUE THURS:

ILG-ATL
07:10 AM - 09:10 AM
ATL-ILG
09:55 AM - 11:50 AM

ILG-MDW
12:35 PM- 01:30 PM
MDW-ILG
02:15 PM - 05:05 PM

ILG-DTW
5:50PM-7:30 PM
DTW-ILG
8:15PM-9:50PM

After September 21, ILG-DTW is discontinued. The schedule still has ILG-ATL and ILG-MDW operated and an evening run after the MDW run to another destination, I would presume could still be possible, likely if it's DTW distance or less.

From ILG, F9 existing stations at DTW's distance or less but greater than 5 hours of drive include:
CLT
RDU
GSO
CVG
CLE
PHF (maybe too close?)

If it goes the new station route, there is:
PIT
MYR

MYR leans destinational while PIT leans practical but I could see both having an appeal but just to different group of pax.

There is a TTN-DTW flight on on SUN, TUE, THUR, so in a way deleting ILG-DTW helps by not diluting the loads from TTN-DTW.

CVG has SUN, TUE, THUR from TTN, and it might be worse than DTW if attempted. The TTN-CLT schedule overlaps also with the evening available schedule out of ILG that CLT might not be a good choice.

CLE has no Sunday service to TTN, and it's limited TTN service is otherwise early morning in the Fall. F9 has a big following on the CLE side as well.

TTN-RDU has been popular, and maybe ILG-RDU with some frequency could be attempted. There seems to be less conflict and the TTN-RDU is very early morning, so an evening service out of ILG would in a way appeal to some different customers. Also the Tuesday TTN service is gone.

GSO has no low fare service to the Northeast. If Frontier considers ILG-GSO, it might be targeted more for GSO pax. Does Frontier have large enough of a GSO customer base that supports it to DEN and the west coast that would be interested in service up Northeast/Mid-Atlantic states via ILG?

PIT: I'd think some low fare service between Philly and Pittsburgh could do well. I would have though TTN would get PIT first, but F9 has not considered it at all. Would F9 ever consider PIT to ILG? The drive to Pittsburgh simply is uncomfortable although many endure it. MegaBus is stopping in two cities and not offering direct bus service either. It would be the shortest route in the F9 network if launched. But I'd guess that demand to Pittsburgh is still greater than Cleveland from the Philly region even if flight service was available, even though Cleveland is 2-2.5 hours farther in distance.

Would it likely replace ILG-DTW with something and with what route?

Of the remaining ones, I'd think RDU, GSO, MYR, PIT or CLE would be good choices and not overlapping with the TTN flights the same times. Probably it'd be RDU or CLE.

delawareguy

That would make sense, especially since Frontier is working on greater fleet utilization. MYR wouldn't be appropriate to start in the Fall since its more of a summer destination. CLE is in the same boat as DTW(an old dying city that is not popular to visit in the winter), Probably CVG, or North Carolina. Would they be able to stretch it to UST with it arriving back at 10:30ish.
That would max out ILG's one plane and put a cap on any more growth unless they add another plane.

RobS

Confounding 40 years of doom and gloom, CLE's regional population has begun growing again. It's still old, but no longer on the critical list.

davywavy

I think it's a pity they can't squeeze ILG-FLL in there somehow.

rtalk25

I'd guess it didn't choose that route because of:

-intense competition (Southwest fending off Spirit) down at BWI, for BWI-FLL. Southwest is selling one-way tickets next week for just $133-4 (3 days next week), $102 (1 day) and $90 (2 days). That's generally unseen of Southwest to offer such low fares for a near 1000 mile route just a week away. The local ILG crowd might flock down to BWI anyways.

From NJ, there are the F9 flights from TTN, Spirit from ACY and US which hasn't increased fares on PHL-FLL, and Southwest's seasonal service.

From the PA suburbs, it's whatever is there at PHL and TTN. ACY and BWI are somewhat a hike but some use them still. But, there is still good level of competition from PHL alone, and likelihood that either Spirit or JetBlue adds PHL-FLL when Southwest ends the seasonal service in March 2015.

-the seasonal nature of FLL, RSW and TPA, where demand is great during December to Spring Break, but tapers off after that.

-Frontier preferring flying routes like 400-700 miles (rather than longer ones) to get more destinations in from a focus city.

My guess is ILG-RDU would be a good choice. If offered during the evening, it wouldn't overlap with TTN-RDU's early morning runs.

However, I'm not sure what direction Frontier wants to go with ILG since nothing new has been announced. It may go in a truly more Allegiant style mode. Atlanta is farely new, and hopefully will be extended through the winter and do well. Atleast it's giving ATL a longer run out of ILG than Spirit offers out of ACY, where Spirit runs it as seasonal only, ends it in the Fall. Spirit has never even tried ACY-ATL for a full year run. Maybe Spirit feels that ACY-FLL is so profitable, it's not even worth downsizing it during peak season for other flights. Spirit can offer connections ( international) through FLL, but I wonder how many pax from NJ are flying Spirit ex ACY to fly international with a layover in FLL.

davywavy

I sometimes think of ILG as the red-headed stepchild of the Frontier focus cities, but they are making a fuss about the 200,000th passenger:

http://capegazette.villagesoup.com/p...r-firs/1199416

"Frontier Airlines to Register 200,000th Passenger at ILG - Sets Wilmington Airport (ILG) Record for first 11 months of Service

On Thursday, June 19, representatives of Frontier airlines will join with Wilmington Airport (ILG) officials to recognize the 200,000th passenger to use the commercial air service. Celebrating this milestone, the selected passenger will be awarded a $500 Frontier Airlines gift card and special promotional items. It also marks a new record for the first 11 months of commercial service at Wilmington Airport (ILG). Each traveler on the flight will also receive a gift bag, which includes a hat, lanyard, and a snack pack of chocolate"

I don't recall them doing this at TTN, but maybe I missed it.

Jerseyguy

I didn't hear about any similar milestones with TTN either. ILG also had a DTW/ATL launch party. I think its more of a thing done by ILG administration than F9. F9 donated the $500 on request of the airport. Just my thought, nothing to back it up. ILG may not be as big but I think they do a better job of managing the airport than TTN. Part of which could be TTN is run by a county government and ILG is run by the Delaware River and Bay Authority (DRBA) a little less red tape.

rtalk25

I noticed that Southwest has a lot of advance purchase PHL-ATL fares for September-December at $109 WGA. That's a lot more competitive than what it was charging for awhile especially around the time ILG-ATL was announced. ATL is about the same distance as MDW but PHL-MDW is no less than $149 WGA.

I'm just watching this route as Southwest inherited it, and Southwest has to compete against Delta and US who have FF from each side from their local markets, and Frontier has come in likely picking off leisure pax but using TTN and ILG.

Southwest service decreases down to 3x daily so I think Southwest is now trying to get more O&D for this route by lowering the fares, not just fill up by connections.

I do wonder Frontier's effect on TTN-ATL and ILG-ATL is having a siphoning effect and prompting Southwest to determine viability of it's own PHL-ATL on it's metal.