EricR111

Isn't it true, though, that to be a ULCC for longer routes, you need bigger planes? An A319 won't cut it on a 1400 nm flight like Denver, although I guess an A320 does, since they use it from ILG. And I would think that to LAS, LAX or SFO, you would need at least an A321 - and for those distances, I think even ILG's longest runway - about 7200 ft. - is too short.

davywavy

The A319 has slightly more range than the A320 (same fuel tanks, fewer pax) and is used by Frontier on some of its longest routes - DEN-ANC, DEN-FAI and DEN-SJO, all at about 2400/2500 miles. It is also used for DEN-PUJ at 2600 miles.

You're right about the A320 better more economical for ULCC, but it is't about range - more pax = more revenue.

In terms of runway length, again the A319 has the edge over the A320, although both are regularly used at SNA which is 5600 feet.

Jerseyguy

Plus we've heard in news stories Frontier is bringing in planes with "slightly more seats". The only plane that fits that description is the A320 for F9. We'll see whether they mean they will be bringing it in for DEN, et al or to one of their shorter routes.

EricR111

Are they planning to use the present generation of A320s, or wait until the A320neos? Those are about two years away.

lowfareair

Southwest is pulling PHL-FLL this fall. It wouldn't shock me to see F9 start ILG-FLL this fall/winter, and increase TTN service, even after the seasonal increase. This will also probably be the impetus for B6 to launch PHL-FLL, as they have indicated the BOS route is successful for them.

Jerseyguy

It seemed closer than 2 years away and I can't find the article but I thought I saw one that said this Winter (meaning Winter 14-15), so I'd guess the regular A320 not the NEOs. They've used the regular 320s as backups for a319s that were out of service for one reason or the other. Its only happened a few times. As it stands now I think it will only allow them to reach up to DEN, which would include DFW, IAH which are currently out of the limit of the planes. Perhaps when the A319neo gets delivered sometime in early 2016 they will be able to use the NEO to get to LAX, SFO, LAS, etc.

lowfareair

I believe we are still 2 years away from the first delivery for F9, as the first actual A320neo delivery is October 2015 to Qatar.

The bigger question is what is the range of the A320neo from TTN's short runway? The A319neo currently has 39 orders (20 F9 and 19 Avianca) vs. ~2000 for the A320neo and 500+ for the A321neo. It wouldn't shock me to see Airbus dangle incentives in front of Frontier to convert the orders to A320neo and cancel the A319neo altogether.

davywavy

That's about right. Frontier has said (internally) they are preparing for first Neo delivery at the end of 2015.

While the A319Neo has very good short field performance, we know that the A320 can take off and land at TTN, with pax, because it has - the PHL based A320 (Apple flights) was subbed for a flight from TTN - to FLL, from memory, but JerseyGuy may remember more details than I.

The greater issue still seems to be clearance at the end of the runway - the trees and cell towers - and really DEN is all it needs. Dreams of LAS and LAX are terrific, but TTN has other issues, such as a bigger terminal, before that happens. I equate TTN to SNA, which has a slightly shorter runway - 5700 ft..

The Frontier (ex-Republic) order for the Neo has changed once - originally it was signed as 40 and 40, now it is 60 x A320Neo and 20 x A319Neo.

Many believe that Airbus won't make the A319Neo, but to get Frontier to change they'd have to offer some great inducements because the deal Frontier has on the A319Neo is fairly amazing - launch customer plus.

I assume that like the CEO family, the A320Neo family will all be made on the same production line (as the A318 was) so it costs Airbus very little to offer the A319Neo, and not to offer it may kill the model. I'm not sure if that's desirable, but it's all well above my pay scale.

EricR111

By the way, talking of runways at TTN -- what do they do with landings when they have strong crosswinds on 6/24 - do the A319s go ahead and land there, or can they land on 16/34, which is only 4800' long?

Linux72

The A319s always land 6/24. The A320 only landed on 34 once...the A320 pilots said they had the performance to take off on 34 (winds were strong out of the NW), but the tower wasn't sure if there were any restrictions, and the pilots opted to just take 24, rather than wait to sort it out. Also remember, the A320 wasn't full as it was only carrying an A319-size load of people and luggage.

lowfareair

Schedule was extended a month. Interesting item - RDU loses two frequencies (Tuesday and Thursday), and CLE loses one, going from MWFSa to TuThSa, possibly meaning a new destination with 3 weekly flights on MWF.

What are people's guesses? I'm thinking it will be a shorter route, similar in length to RDU/CLE. Given that RDU is losing 2 flights, I'm inclined to say GSO, although their earlier mention of adding leisure destinations later this year could indicate MYR.

rtalk25

MYR sounds like a good bet but is Mon Wed Fri a good schedule for MYR? IMO Mon Wed Fri is better for either a Florida city where pax take a full week off on vacation anyways, or a consulting schedule to a business city. I guess one can do a full week in MYR but it seems like a long vacation.

I'd guess if F9 opens MYR, it offers both TTN and CLE, and maybe even MDW. The other option is F9 increasing the Florida service, esp. to FLL where WN is downsizing. The flights are longer though than the RDU and CLE based lengths.

davywavy

The reductions are happening at the end of summer, so if there is a be a new route I'd probably pick GSO over MYR, but if I had my druthers it would be somewhere like CAE - Columbia, SC. It has no LCC service but in 2010 it offered Southwest millions to set up shop there. Southwest chose GSP instead.

http://greenvillejournal.com/busines...charlotte.html

"Southwest picks GSP"

And these two drops may not be the end of it. Will TTN-ATL stay at daily or go back to 6 x weekly, or TTN-MDW? Will MSP stay at 4 x or go to 3 x for the winter?

There could be a bit of shuffling around.

rtalk25

I went by ILG today. The last time I flew out I was in a rush and didn't pay attention to the external surroundings.

Here are the external observations:
-Quality Inn. It looked like a 2 star motel. It's rooms had outside entrances like Red Roof Inn or Rodeway Inn. And this was the airport hotel, right next to ILG. Wouldn't it be much nicer if it was Hampton Inn or Courtyard? I guess it's nice to have a hotel in general, unlike TTN which doesn't have something so walkable nearby from the gate, but Quality Inn isn't the best choice IMO.
-No taxi cabs around unlike TTN at airport curbside. I don't know what the fare is to the Wilmington Amtrak or Wilmington bus station. I'd be curious to know if it's significantly lower than TTN to Trenton's Amtrak station ($25 before tip).
-Motor Lodges and downscale businesses around ILG on DuPont Highway, rather than a good selection of hotels. Different than TTN's surroundings which is a lot of trees, unlit areas and deer.
-Parking lots are disconnected and not that easy to find. The Lot C had potholes. I guess one can't complain though as parking is free.

That said, I definitely think Florida out of ILG is a nice niche, but I wonder if consolidating the MDW, ATL, DTW services up to TTN, rather than splitting these markets to ILG and TTN, makes most sense. I wonder how the ILG-DEN service is doing? What is the long term plan for F9 at ILG?

I drove on I-95 between PHL and ILG, and a new billboard sign was up that fly United at ACY. The ACY owner SJTA will advertise for the airline, and has advertised on billboards around PHL, and has bought airtime on the local Philly TV stations in the past.

I'd like to see F9 at ACY. ACY has money to advertise and it's great alternate airport for Southern-Central NJ and those in Philadelphia limits. It's not too good for the western parts of the market, however, like Chester County and Northern DE, but I'd propose keeping Florida service out of ILG still for the leisure pax from Chester County and No. Delaware.

I'd think the 2-7x weekly model of ACY-CLE, ACY-PIT and westbound connections would be popular, including seasonal ACY-MDW (when Spirit doesn't operate ACY-ORD) and ACY-DEN.

Right now, Spirit has the Florida flights but the airport lacks good westbound connections. United's fares are unbelievable so I'm not sure if United is going to work out there. With F9's customer base from TTN and ILG, I think being at ACY will be easy addition to market to a captive crowd, almost like a new Apple store that opens up. Apple opened at Pier at Caesars, and Apple sent an email to all their customers who go to the Marlton, NJ store that another store is out there for them for their convenience.

N830MH

Here is the link of A320neo & 737MAX orders status.

http://www.pdxlight.com/neomax.htm

This should help.