RobS

Trackage beyond New Haven is seemingly based on colonial mule paths. Train times to Boston will always be a disappointment

rtalk25

MSP has a strong local economy. There maybe people who took a job there but might have family back in NJ. Or vice versa since TTN is a gateway to New York and Philly.

I think the appeal of MSP-TTN is for friends visiting families/relatives (VFR) that can now do so for about $200-300 r/t on direct nonstop flights. Looking at US fares, those seem higher, and Delta likely charge a lot more, Southwest charges somewhere in between Frontier and US, Delta, but requires a MDW connection which might kill the convenience factor for a visit home over a 3 day break.

I do have a suspicion that more So. Florida might be possible during December-March when it's So. Florida season. That might lead to some of the Midwest routes being suspended during that season but it's just a guess. I'd think MSP-TTN would stay around however but maybe at less frequency (say 2x weekly) and still have appeal from those from the MSP side looking to fly into TTN.

lebowski2222

MSP also has almost for 4 million people in its CSA metro population. MSP is pretty much the only game in the entire state of Minnesota, so if you figure people from the rest of Minnesota, Western Wisconsin, and parts of ND/SD and Iowa you are looking at almost 6 million people who can fly.

knope2001

LOL...no intent to startle, of course. I wanted to explain this a bit better but things have been hectic in the last few weeks and I never quite got around to it.

Obviously seat maps are especially mushy indicators of bookings for airlines where significant numbers of bookings don't include a seat assignment. As for them being "fudged" I'm rather skeptical because the inquiry seat map matches the one you get to purchase a seat assignment when you book. (Seat assignment purchase comes prior to paying so this can be checked without actually paying if desired.) Passenger loads are mostly the realm of amateurs anyway in modern times because airlines have gotten so good at filling seats (sacrificing yield) anyway, so it just doesn't seem likely to me they'd go through the effort of fudging seat maps to throw people off and affect the seats available for paying customers to buy.

I do occasionally follow seat maps for a period on select markets but almost never share any of that information -- even for airlines where most get seat assignments at booking -- because they are mushy and don't usually mean much because most city pairs fill seats pretty well and it's a poor indicator of success or failure.

So why they heck did I make an exception and post information on these new TTN markets?

Unlike most other new markets added these days, at TTN (and ILG and UST) respectable loads are not as certain a bet because job one is convincing people to switch airports. There's no connecting flow to underprice to fill seats at these airports. And it might be harder in these new smaller markets (like Indianapolis and Milwaukee) compared bigger markets like Chicago and Florida. So loads are perhaps more interesting here than many other new routes (both F9 and other airlines).

Yet the issue of number mushiness still remains. What does 50 seats selected on a flight three weeks from now mean? Doesn't really tell us too much. Eight seats always show blocked so that suggests 42 seats assignments are given, but we have no idea how many no-assignment passengers are booked, nor do we know what is good/reasonable for a flight 3 weeks out in a newish market like this.

Yet...I think there's still something of use here. We have these average-reserved-seats numbers for the five markets and we don't know what those numbers really mean to the final actual loads because they are imperfect/incomplete. But they are imperfect/incomplete in a similar way, we can compare them to see the relative performance of the five markets. We can compare the five to each other.

If it were just IND, BNA, MKE and STL I would not have posted. The numbers have some difference but nothing big enough to be worth posting about. But MSP stood out as an over-performer. Then when I went back and looked at what fare levels were out there, MSP stood out even more. I don't pretend to know exactly that those numbers tell us about what the final loads and final fares will be, but MSP sticks out as a strong performer versus the other four.

Like I said, was MSP not sticking out so much I would have just kept this all to myself as I do with 99% of the seat map and fare info I see. I don't do tons of either these days (I used to do more) but when I do it's mostly for my own interest...if it doesn't seem noteworthy I stop, or if it seems of interest I'll keep on it for awhile. But I don't post anything precisely because it's of mushy usefulness. But I made an exception here because of MSP's apparent strength.

So...that's why I posted. No shock intended.

davywavy

I'm a big boy, I got over it. :-)

I might part company on the issue of fudging. With the first routes at TTN, I know there was a concern (at Frontier) that the competition might get some clues as to what was happening and the actual loads were somewhat different form the seat maps. Was that fudging, or were the seats maps just unusually mushy? I don't know, but I know that the concern about the competition was very real and - I think - understandably.

I also know that at CLE, the actual loads (about forty eight hours before first flights of the expansion) were somewhat different from the seat maps, less so in the case of Florida, more so in the case of non-Florida. Fudging? Mayhap. Or a lot of very late bookers? Or just - mushy?

There are other issues. CLE-MCO was a rocket out of the gate, but CLE-FLL was almost depressingly slow to book. But by first flights, while both were excellent, FLL might - might - just have had the edge, if only by a seat or three.

Yes, TTN-MSP was interesting because I agree, it stuck out like dog's balls, still does, but that might also be true - this far out - of IAD-MSP (although there may be a couple of other surprises at IAD). I just wouldn't make any judgements, this far out.

And I agree - it was possible to think (from the seat maps) that ILG-DTW was not so good, while ILG-ATL was much healthier.

But I'm still not sure what we learn from that, or rather - how we use what we have learned, because there are (eventually) good routes that are not rockets out of the gate. Nor do we know if management has a different view, if a route might fit into a greater strategy - or, I don't know.

TTN-ATL always had pretty good loads but there were low fares on some days. Now - a year later - the loads are still there, but it is getting tough to find those low fares unless you book some way out.

And I think that nursing time, that maturing of a route, is important. Time was when we gave any new route a year or two to find its level, but I guess those days are gone.

And I think that's a pity, so perhaps the issue is mine.

No worries. As I said, I got over it.

rtalk25

With Frontier starting CLE-ORD (315 miles), perhaps Frontier is more receptive to shorter distance flights.

Hopefully it considers TTN-PIT (287 miles). The latter is a more difficult drive IMO, and bus is less pleasant (MegaBus taking 2 stops and departing out of Philly and not in NJ), but the demand between the regions is significant. Atleast significant enough for Southwest to run PHL-PIT 4x daily even though Southwest succumbed to deleting the route as US was price-matching it. Southwest still offers a somewhat reasonable price competitive PHL-MDW-PIT (sometimes as low as $131 one-way if booked 3 weeks ahead) despite dropping the nonstop, so there is still a middle of pax that want low fares service, between those willing to pay any amount for a nonstop on US, and the other option of just driving.

I've used CLE as a way to reach PIT. However, CLE-TTN is limited to just 3x daily in the Fall, which is less frequency than CLE-IAD, CLE-ORD and CLE-LGA. In someways, CLE-TTN might be less visible or important with CLE-LGA in the mix for CLE based pax who now can fly directly into NYC than land in TTN and try hailing a cab to NJ Transit TRE station, as some were doing.

Given that CLE is becoming a significant focus in the network, I do hope CLE-Philly region gets more service. Perhaps it can happen if offered from a CLE based plane. If not CLE-ILG and if TTN's gates are occupied at an ideal time, would it consider CLE-ACY?

On a side note, the next Monday and Wednesday, the TTN-CLE service is almost full and fares are $287! It sucks that Sunday service was deleted as all the Sunday interested pax will fill up on Monday.

Is there some event/convention in CLE? Maybe some company has a lot of employees on the flight?

It's actually still a bargain over US Airways that wants $681 one-way in Coach next Monday. Frontier's flight gets into CLE from TTN gets in earlier than US' first flight out of PHL (which is on a RJ) and United's first flight out of EWR, so it might have appeal with business traffic.

N830MH

Do you think they will increase the frequencies TTN-UST? I hear this route has done extremely very well. We have someone who flew on F9 UST-TTN to see his daughter.