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Old Jul 6, 12, 8:29 pm   #1
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
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March 2012 T100's (onboard loads)

Here are onboard loads for Frontier and select MKE competitors for March 2012. As always, remember that loads are only half the picture when trying to guess relative financial performace as they say pretty much nothing about fare or traffic composition.

Frontier non-Denver -- markets primarily served by Airbus / EJet
96.0% ….. MKE ….. PHX
94.4% ….. MKE ….. RSW
94.2% ….. MKE ….. MCO
90.1% ….. MKE ….. DEN
90.1% ….. MCI ….. SEA
90.0% ….. MKE ….. LAS
89.9% ….. MCI ….. LAX
89.8% ….. MKE ….. FLL
89.6% ….. MCI ….. RSW
89.4% ….. MCI ….. LAS
89.3% ….. MCI ….. SFO
87.4% ….. MCO ….. OMA
86.4% ….. MCI ….. AUS
83.7% ….. MCI ….. MCO
83.2% ….. TPA ….. OMA
81.7% ….. MCI ….. MSY
81.7% ….. MCI ….. HOU
81.2% ….. MCO ….. MSN
81.0% ….. MCI ….. DCA
80.1% ….. MKE ….. DCA
79.3% ….. MKE ….. DFW
75.4% ….. MCO ….. DSM
74.1% ….. DCA ….. OMA
72.9% ….. MCI ….. LGA
72.0% ….. MKE ….. LGA
71.7% ….. MKE ….. PHL
71.5% ….. MCI ….. MKE
64.6% ….. MCI ….. BOS
64.0% ….. MCI ….. TPA
63.5% ….. TPA ….. DSM
56.0% ….. MCO ….. TYS
45.9% ….. DCA ….. MSN
22.8% ….. DCA ….. GRR

Frontier non-Denver --markets primarily served by ERJ
84.5% ….. MKE ….. EWR
77.1% ….. MKE ….. IND
74.0% ….. MKE ….. BNA
64.2% ….. MKE ….. OMA
61.6% ….. MKE ….. CMH
60.2% ….. MKE ….. GRR
49.8% ….. MKE ….. FNT
40.4% ….. MKE ….. RHI
24.8% ….. MKE ….. MBL

Frontier Denver
94.4% ….. DEN ….. TPA
94.2% ….. DEN ….. DCA
93.3% ….. DEN ….. MCO
93.0% ….. DEN ….. LGA
92.4% ….. DEN ….. RSW
91.9% ….. DEN ….. AUS
91.9% ….. DEN ….. MSY
91.9% ….. DEN ….. IND
91.7% ….. DEN ….. PHL
91.2% ….. DEN ….. FLL
91.0% ….. DEN ….. CAK
90.8% ….. DEN ….. MDW
90.7% ….. DEN ….. BOS
90.5% ….. DEN ….. SEA
90.3% ….. DEN ….. PHX
90.3% ….. DEN ….. DTW
90.2% ….. DEN ….. MSN
90.1% ….. DEN ….. MKE
89.9% ….. DEN ….. LAS
89.3% ….. DEN ….. MSP
89.2% ….. DEN ….. PDX
88.9% ….. DEN ….. SAT
88.8% ….. DEN ….. SLC
88.7% ….. DEN ….. LAX
88.6% ….. DEN ….. SMF
88.5% ….. DEN ….. SBA
88.2% ….. DEN ….. HOU
87.6% ….. DEN ….. SAN
87.1% ….. DEN ….. SDF
87.1% ….. DEN ….. ATL
86.7% ….. DEN ….. TUS
85.8% ….. DEN ….. SFO
85.1% ….. DEN ….. GRR
84.6% ….. DEN ….. BNA
84.5% ….. DEN ….. TYS
84.1% ….. DEN ….. MCI
83.6% ….. DEN ….. PSP
83.4% ….. DEN ….. OMA
83.1% ….. DEN ….. DAY
83.1% ….. DEN ….. LIT
82.1% ….. DEN ….. ABQ
81.9% ….. DEN ….. GEG
81.1% ….. DEN ….. OKC
80.7% ….. DEN ….. DSM
79.6% ….. DEN ….. SNA
79.3% ….. DEN ….. STL
77.5% ….. DEN ….. BZN
74.9% ….. DEN ….. PVU
74.6% ….. DEN ….. DFW
74.1% ….. DEN ….. RFD
72.8% ….. DEN ….. FSD
69.6% ….. DEN ….. ICT
66.5% ….. DEN ….. BKG
63.0% ….. DEN ….. PHF
62.0% ….. DEN ….. DRO
60.2% ….. DEN ….. BIL
58.9% ….. DEN ….. ASE
53.2% ….. DEN ….. COS
50.2% ….. DEN ….. HDN

AirTran Milwaukee
92.5% ….. MKE ….. MCO
91.6% ….. MKE ….. TPA
90.7% ….. MKE ….. SRQ
90.4% ….. MKE ….. PHX
89.9% ….. MKE ….. MSP
89.5% ….. MKE ….. SEA
88.7% ….. MKE ….. LAS
87.8% ….. MKE ….. RSW
87.2% ….. MKE ….. LAX
87.1% ….. MKE ….. SFO
86.0% ….. MKE ….. MSY
81.8% ….. MKE ….. FLL
74.4% ….. MKE ….. DCA
70.1% ….. MKE ….. BOS
69.1% ….. MKE ….. LGA
65.3% ….. MKE ….. ATL
65.2% ….. MKE ….. DEN
55.7% ….. MKE ….. DSM
50.1% ….. MKE ….. CAK
41.8% ….. MKE ….. BWI

Southwest Milwaukee
97.5% ….. MKE ….. PHX
95.0% ….. MKE ….. LAS
89.1% ….. MKE ….. TPA
88.5% ….. MKE ….. MCO
80.0% ….. MKE ….. DEN
72.5% ….. MKE ….. FLL
71.1% ….. MKE ….. BWI
60.5% ….. MKE ….. STL
59.1% ….. MKE ….. MCI

March generally should be the month that things really come to life, and sunbird flights should be packed. Only filling about 55-65% of seats in TYS-MCO, MCI-TPA, DSM-TPA is a real disappointment. TYS in particular is even worse that it might appear as there were a few hundred thru passengers occupying seats traveling from Orlando to Denver via TYS. Without those passengers TYS-MCO would have registered 42.2% full. Those through passengers also boosted TYS-DEN numbers by 6.3 percentage points.

Last edited by knope2001; Jul 6, 12 at 8:37 pm.
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Old Jul 6, 12, 8:53 pm   #2
 
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A few more quick notes:

Quote:
Originally Posted by knope2001 View Post
45.9% .. DCA .. MSN
22.8% .. DCA .. GRR
Without thru passengers between Denver and Washington, here's how local traffic looked on MSN and GRR flights to/from DCA:
10.3% Grand Rapids (14.3 local passengers per flight)
27.3% Madison (37.7 local passengers per flight)


Quote:
Originally Posted by knope2001 View Post
64.6% .. MCI .. BOS
51.6% eastbound (left MCI to early for any connecting feed)
77.6% westbound (arrived MCI in time for westbound connections)
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Old Jul 7, 12, 8:28 am   #3
 
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Knope, thanks as always for the numbers.

I am shocked at the catastrophic lows on DCA-MSN and DCA-GRR.

It makes one wonder what kind of research F9 considered before launching those routes.
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Old Jul 7, 12, 9:23 am   #4
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newsmanhoss View Post
Knope, thanks as always for the numbers.

I am shocked at the catastrophic lows on DCA-MSN and DCA-GRR.

It makes one wonder what kind of research F9 considered before launching those routes.
+1

Maybe that's why GRR-DCA was pulled. It looks like MSN-DCA is doing fairly well, now, especially without any nonstop competition. What will happen, if the E190 is no longer available to serve the route? Frontier has been promoting itself as having an all Airbus fleet. Can an Airbus support the route?
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Old Jul 7, 12, 1:26 pm   #5
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mke9499 View Post
+1

Maybe that's why GRR-DCA was pulled. It looks like MSN-DCA is doing fairly well, now, especially without any nonstop competition. What will happen, if the E190 is no longer available to serve the route? Frontier has been promoting itself as having an all Airbus fleet. Can an Airbus support the route?
Frontier is an all Airbus, Republic has the E190 as prorate. Sometimes details get lost in the message

It will be interesting to see if Frontier (stand alone) will want Republic to fly for them once Frontier has a majority holder, if that ever happens. I can't get a handle what direction Frontier management wants to go. But if Republic agrees to continue to fly prorate for Frontier I would guess the E190's would stay as long as they make money.
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Old Jul 7, 12, 1:48 pm   #6
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 8C4IOW View Post
Frontier is an all Airbus, Republic has the E190 as prorate. Sometimes details get lost in the message
I am well aware of that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 8C4IOW View Post
It will be interesting to see if Frontier (stand alone) will want Republic to fly for them once Frontier has a majority holder, if that ever happens. I can't get a handle what direction Frontier management wants to go. But if Republic agrees to continue to fly prorate for Frontier I would guess the E190's would stay as long as they make money.
The question was if an only Airbus fleet were available to fly for Frontier, could the smaller markets, like MSN, support that kind of capacity?
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Old Jul 7, 12, 6:57 pm   #7
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mke9499 View Post
I am well aware of that.



The question was if an only Airbus fleet were available to fly for Frontier, could the smaller markets, like MSN, support that kind of capacity?


The only smaller markets that could support an Airbus fleet would be flights to either Florida destinations and to Denver to connect to other flights. Even at that the flights probably would only be a few times a week, no chance it they could be daily (and make money). Frontier is heading toward the Allegiant style of flights for small markets, which is non-daily flights. I wouldn't be surprised if Republic sells or leases the DCA slots to another airline.
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Old Jul 8, 12, 9:05 pm   #8
 
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Originally Posted by newsmanhoss View Post
It makes one wonder what kind of research F9 considered before launching those routes.
Considering that Durango/Denver was only 62%, I'm still wondering about what research they have that shows Durango/Las Vegas will be successful.
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