MKE September 2011 Traffic -- Frontier back on top
MKE September traffic continues the year-over-year drop, and for the month of September AirTran's drop allowed Frontier to be back on top. This will be short lived as Frontier's cuts accelerate this fall.
2011 vs 2010
2011 vs 2009
Change by airline
8.2% United + Continental
9.1% Air Canada
7.0% United + Continental
0.4% Air Canada
I don't include Southwest with AirTran yet because they don't cross-feed each other yet like UA* and CO*. (As a matter of fact I suspect that the Skywest UA* flight which took over a CO* MKE-IAH trip is getting double-reported under Continental and under United, but don't have the time to prove it right now.) If WN+FL were combined, their year-over-year totals would be off 2.4%. Although the loss of Skywest FL* is a blow to the numbers, the 600 weekday seats they flew last September were more than replaced by 742 weekday seats with mainline to STL, CAK, and DSM this year. Of course STL is on WN (not FL) but the total WN+FL is still off year-over-year.
As for Frontier, they might well be passed by AirTran again come October. And by January, Frontier will only be about 20% larger than Delta.
Some, though the malinline CAK, DSM and STL flights nearly replaced last year's CRJ capacity. OO operated 23,550 departing seats as FL*, while FL+WN offered 23,002 seats to CAK, DSM and STL.
I think the reduced traffic is:
--partly due to lost OO seats
--partly due to much lower load factors on mainline flights to DSM, CAK and perhaps STL...traffic not growing to meet the increased capacity shifted over
--partly due to the year over year loss of DFW
--partly due to other trims, like MCI is 2x vs 3x last October
FL+WN had 1x DEN last October and had 3x this October, so all these other trims overtook that DEN capacity increase to show year-over-year drop.
From what I've heard Akron has done a notch or two better, but not not all that much. I've heard mixed things about STL so far so I'm not sure what to make of it.
Even though added seats to DSM, STL and CAK very roughly offset the lost seats to OMA, PIT and IND, those lost passengers to those three cities were not replaced by lots of extra pax to DSM, STL and CAK.
That DSM is still in the schedule well into next summer (as far as the schedule goes) supports the idea that it's a placeholder until 717's can fly DSM-MDW with the WN code.
The combined MKE market share for WN/FL is just under 40%.
If everything holds as is, by January FL+WN should be approaching 50%. Here's the breakdown based on the weekday scheduled flights for mid January:
31.0% ….. fl
19.7% ….. f9
17.0% ….. wn
16.3% ….. dl
7.7% ….. ua
4.5% ….. us
3.0% ….. aa
0.7% ….. ac
I didn't make a point of adjusting for weekend variation, nor for charter flying. And of course this is capacity...not passengers...so if one airline fills 85% of seats and another fills 65% of seats, actual pax counts will vary accordingly.
Also note that (for whatever reason) in January, a few flights to LAS and Florida normally operated by FL are being operated by WN. So if the same numbers were run for January, perhaps it might be more like FL 35% and WN 13%.