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Old Jan 12, 2016, 9:40 am
  #46  
 
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Stressing a bit as I have a 2 night stop in Turkey on the way to SA coming up in just over 2 weeks. Hotel booked is about 400 meters from the bombing site. It makes me nervous, but then again, there have been just as many attacks in other western european cities.
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Old Jan 12, 2016, 12:16 pm
  #47  
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Originally Posted by Worcester
I live in Istanbul as an Ex Pat, it is a minor concern but after attacks in Paris and other major cities I don't feel the risk here is greater than any other major city. The Turkish police are efficient for the most part.

More afraid of Turkish domus and taxi drivers...
As a visitor to IST, terrorism would be a minor concern for me too -- even as the marginal risks are now way less marginal than at this time last year. Still, the risk "can be marginalized further by staying in rented apartments, not doing the usual tourist things, avoiding crowded or popular sites and some other such approaches. But then there goes some of the fun of being a tourist."

No matter how relatively efficient the Turkish police may be, Turkey is in a hotspot situation/location given the domestic and regional/crossroad dynamics. Would I still visit Istanbul as a tourist this month or next month? Yes, if the weather weren't so lousy; but I would also expect a lot of people get turned off going this year in case a Paris or Bombay style attack hits Istanbul.
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Old Jan 12, 2016, 12:25 pm
  #48  
 
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Originally Posted by GUWonder
I would also expect a lot of people get turned off going this year in case a Paris or Bombay style attack hits Istanbul.
I understand that you're speaking for "people" rather than yourself, and it's a true statement because "people" aren't necessarily rational, but I'm just curious - aside from outright conflict zones, is there a contemporary example of "lightning striking twice" of this sort? I'm struggling to think of one. Personally I'm the sort of "contrarian" that a previous poster mentioned - once the magnifying glass and spotlight have been placed, I feel safer actually.
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Old Jan 12, 2016, 12:44 pm
  #49  
 
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Originally Posted by Worcester
I live in Istanbul as an Ex Pat, it is a minor concern but after attacks in Paris and other major cities I don't feel the risk here is greater than any other major city. The Turkish police are efficient for the most part.

More afraid of Turkish domus and taxi drivers...
I just don't see evidence that Turkey is managing the security situation.
Airside bomb attack at SAW, and what we saw was official denial of security issues.
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Old Jan 12, 2016, 1:02 pm
  #50  
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Originally Posted by arlflyer
I understand that you're speaking for "people" rather than yourself, and it's a true statement because "people" aren't necessarily rational, but I'm just curious - aside from outright conflict zones, is there a contemporary example of "lightning striking twice" of this sort? I'm struggling to think of one. Personally I'm the sort of "contrarian" that a previous poster mentioned - once the magnifying glass and spotlight have been placed, I feel safer actually.
I know people who were in a WTC tower when a van/truck bomb was used and when 9/11 happened.

But there are situations where one attack may mark the beginning of a series of related attacks that happen in a tighter time FRA, and more directly related way than that. Some would say that Turkey has managed to rather extensively stir more than one nest of hornets within the past twelve months, and thus "lightning striking twice" may be way more likely now than during some prior periods.
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Old Jan 12, 2016, 1:06 pm
  #51  
 
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Very true - agreed that they haven't made many friends lately. I also suppose that my caveat of Turkey not being in a "conflict zone" may also be subject to debate. It will certainly be interesting to see how things play out for the country in the coming years.
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Old Jan 12, 2016, 5:20 pm
  #52  
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The whole Middle East is a huge mess again unfortunately, you can never predict what crisis may suddenly erupt in any country there, which is tricky in making travel plans several months out.
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Old Jan 12, 2016, 5:25 pm
  #53  
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Originally Posted by Worcester
I live in Istanbul as an Ex Pat, it is a minor concern but after attacks in Paris and other major cities I don't feel the risk here is greater than any other major city. The Turkish police are efficient for the most part.

More afraid of Turkish domus and taxi drivers...
Candidly, I think the risk is significantly higher now in IST than Paris or any other place in Western Europe or the USA. There are just more "bad guys" there with more grievances, and more access. And that's before one considers the relative skills of the Turkish police (I'm no expert on that).

That said, based on what we know today, I don't think anyone needs to cancel a trip to IST. The odds are still very, very low that you'd be a victim. The major risk is to your peace of mind.


Originally Posted by MileageAddict
I have award tickets booked to Istanbul for late May with onward travel to Greece. I've been to Istanbul before so it's not like I absolutely have to go there.

I'm traveling with my girlfriend who is a not nearly as seasoned a traveler as me and if I change my itinerary, it would be more for her benefit/peace of mind.

I'm going to think about it for a week or two before I do anything.
I'd give it until at least March before pondering a change. Let's see what happens. If things stay "hot" in IST, maybe you can still visit and just lay low -- stay away from the top tourist attractions/neighborhoods.

Originally Posted by GUWonder
I know people who were in a WTC tower when a van/truck bomb was used and when 9/11 happened.

But there are situations where one attack may mark the beginning of a series of related attacks that happen in a tighter time FRA, and more directly related way than that. Some would say that Turkey has managed to rather extensively stir more than one nest of hornets within the past twelve months, and thus "lightning striking twice" may be way more likely now than during some prior periods.
Yeah, I'm kind of expecting more attacks in IST. Kind of like you'd expect more attacks in Baghdad (but, obviously, not as bad as that). This is a different situation from Paris where there MIGHT be more attacks, but there's at least an equal chance that nothing else will happen this year. Travel to IST right now requires real thought; this isn't just a nervous-nelly situation.
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Old Jan 13, 2016, 12:53 am
  #54  
 
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Originally Posted by teahan
I just don't see evidence that Turkey is managing the security situation.
Airside bomb attack at SAW, and what we saw was official denial of security issues.
The attack at SAW was a mortar fired from well outside the airport boundary (same as the IRA did once at London Heathrow, and in those days most of the IRAs funds came from the USA!). The denials were correct, terrorists had not breached airport security which as you suggest would have been an appalling failure.

I agree with the other posts, Turkey has a much more of a security problem than most other countries. They are for example doing much more for Syrian refugees than the whole of Europe and the US combined, they have started issuing work permits to refugees. That alone is probably doing more for our colective security than anything else.
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Old Jan 14, 2016, 8:43 am
  #55  
 
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You're still more likely to get killed on the road there than from terrorism.
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Old Jan 14, 2016, 9:42 am
  #56  
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Originally Posted by Palal
You're still more likely to get killed on the road there than from terrorism.
Yes. People tend to overreact to terrorist attacks in non-war zones, primarily because they don't have a good sense of examining the litany of risks that exist in life that may result in injury or death. For example, people who focus on feeding their young children organic food thinking it will prolong their life while ignoring the drowning and choking hazards that are far more and immediately threatening to the well-being of those children.
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Old Jan 15, 2016, 5:33 am
  #57  
 
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Originally Posted by arlflyer
I understand that you're speaking for "people" rather than yourself, and it's a true statement because "people" aren't necessarily rational, but I'm just curious - aside from outright conflict zones, is there a contemporary example of "lightning striking twice" of this sort? I'm struggling to think of one. Personally I'm the sort of "contrarian" that a previous poster mentioned - once the magnifying glass and spotlight have been placed, I feel safer actually.
One obvious example of "lightning striking twice" (or a lot more than twice) was the Europa Hotel, Belfast, during the IRA activities of the 1970s to 1990s. 28 separate bomb attacks.
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Old Jan 15, 2016, 6:53 am
  #58  
 
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Originally Posted by Andy33
One obvious example of "lightning striking twice" (or a lot more than twice) was the Europa Hotel, Belfast, during the IRA activities of the 1970s to 1990s. 28 separate bomb attacks.
Hence my explicit exclusion of "conflict zones".
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Old Feb 9, 2016, 6:35 am
  #59  
 
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Yep. Can relate as well. Award travel coming up during the first week of May. Hoping things chill out....would be a pain to change my entire trip since Istanbul is in the middle of my tour.....
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Old Feb 11, 2016, 5:13 pm
  #60  
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Los Angeles Times:
Turkey, travel and terrorists: Five things to know

Turkey, a growing travel destination in recent years, has been a repeat terrorist target in recent months. Before you book that Turkish trip – or cancel it -- consider these five points.

The U.S. State Department is increasingly nervous. On Feb. 4, the agency warned Americans against travel to southeastern Turkey because of “an increased threat of terrorist attacks,” perhaps from an international terror organization, perhaps from an indigenous one.

But not all the trouble is confined to the southeastern area near the Syrian border. On Jan. 12 in Istanbul, a killer in his 20s with Islamic State ties detonated a bomb-rigged vest, killing 10 German tourists and himself at one of the city’s busiest tourist spots, the Sultanahmet District.

<snip>

Turkish officials have said that the bomber had entered the country as a Syrian refugee. His attack followed multiple terrorist killings last year, including an Oct. 10 bombing in Ankara that killed more than 100. On Jan. 14, just two days after the Istanbul bombing, came a car-bomb-and-gunfire attack on a police headquarters in Turkey’s southeastern Diyarbakir Province, killing another five people or more. Government officials blamed that attack on Kurdish separatist terrorists, whose history of clashes with Turkish government troops is long and bloody.

<snip>

Despite a slowdown at the end of the year, American travel to Turkey was up in 2015.

<snip>

The Russians are backing away.

<snip>

Turkey now has enough Syrian refugees to fully populate the cities of San Francisco and San Diego.

<snip>

It’s more than 500 miles from Istanbul to the Syrian border.

<snip>
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