Potential New US Destinations
Feb 7, 2016, 10:00 pm
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Sep 2015
Programs: UA Million Mile, Mileage Plus Premier 1K, SkyMiles Gold Medallion, AAdvantage Gold
Posts: 875
Potential New US Destinations
Everyone always talks about Miami being El Al's next US destination, but I think there are a few destinations that could potentially see El Al service in the future.
Miami - This is the obvious one that everyone talks about. The Miami metro area has the 3rd most Jews of any metro area in the US (behind NYC and LA). Along with this, there are currently many Israelis who travel to MIA/FLL by connecting to B6 at EWR, JFK, or BOS or AA at LHR, MAD, or CDG. Personally, I think that the market is big enough for ~6-7 weekly flights.
Philadelphia - AA recently dropped its PHL-TLV daily nonstop, but the flight did have a lot of local travelers. With a pretty sizable Jewish population and considering the city had a nonstop until very recently, I think the market could support ~4 weekly flights.
Chicago - The city has a pretty big Jewish population and is a big business city. Currently served via B6 codeshare from JFK/BOS and AA codeshare via LHR. I think the market could support ~4 weekly flights
Washington, D.C. - The DC metro area has a pretty large amount of Jews, and is in the top five of any metro area in the US if Baltimore is included in the count. The government could also demand a lot of traffic. I think the market could support ~3 weekly flights.
San Francisco? - I don't think the market is big enough for both UA and El Al, and I have a feeling UA will eventually increase its service from 3x weekly to 4-5x weekly. With that in mind, I think it is unlikely El Al will enter this market, but I wouldn't be surprised if it starts codesharing with UA on this flight.
As a side note, I wouldn't be surprised if Boston is upgraded from 3 to 4 weekly flights in the future. I have heard this flight is doing well and benefits from B6 connections.
Miami - This is the obvious one that everyone talks about. The Miami metro area has the 3rd most Jews of any metro area in the US (behind NYC and LA). Along with this, there are currently many Israelis who travel to MIA/FLL by connecting to B6 at EWR, JFK, or BOS or AA at LHR, MAD, or CDG. Personally, I think that the market is big enough for ~6-7 weekly flights.
Philadelphia - AA recently dropped its PHL-TLV daily nonstop, but the flight did have a lot of local travelers. With a pretty sizable Jewish population and considering the city had a nonstop until very recently, I think the market could support ~4 weekly flights.
Chicago - The city has a pretty big Jewish population and is a big business city. Currently served via B6 codeshare from JFK/BOS and AA codeshare via LHR. I think the market could support ~4 weekly flights
Washington, D.C. - The DC metro area has a pretty large amount of Jews, and is in the top five of any metro area in the US if Baltimore is included in the count. The government could also demand a lot of traffic. I think the market could support ~3 weekly flights.
San Francisco? - I don't think the market is big enough for both UA and El Al, and I have a feeling UA will eventually increase its service from 3x weekly to 4-5x weekly. With that in mind, I think it is unlikely El Al will enter this market, but I wouldn't be surprised if it starts codesharing with UA on this flight.
As a side note, I wouldn't be surprised if Boston is upgraded from 3 to 4 weekly flights in the future. I have heard this flight is doing well and benefits from B6 connections.
Feb 8, 2016, 4:41 am
#2
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Israel/United States
Posts: 1,234
You are suggesting markets based on the number of Jews. Do you realize that a huge amount of tourists are non-Jews. Speaking in generalities American Orthodox Jews come to Israel frequently--usually visiting relatives/parents/children. Non-Orthodox come in numbers far below their representation in the US. Non-Jews are the big tourists! It seems irrelevant where Jews are located in terms of having flights. What is relevant is where tourists are coming from. I 'd look first for fundamental Christian populations since they are huge supporters and make loads of trip.
Feb 8, 2016, 5:43 am
#3
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: HaMerkaz/Exit 145
Programs: UA, LY, BA, AA
Posts: 13,167
Agree 100% with awayIgo. No need to look for Jewish communities, or lack thereof, to find suitable, or not-suitable, destinations.
As for PHL, this has been exhausted ad naeseum. PHL wouldn't work for LY because the O&D traffic isn't there. US used it for connecting pax, but LY gets that from JFK, EWR, and BOS, so PHL is just another destination. Plus they have no network to use from PHL, making it have to survive on the O&D traffic that doesn't exist.
For those in PHL, they can drive up the turnpike to EWR or they can connect in JFK/Europe.
As for PHL, this has been exhausted ad naeseum. PHL wouldn't work for LY because the O&D traffic isn't there. US used it for connecting pax, but LY gets that from JFK, EWR, and BOS, so PHL is just another destination. Plus they have no network to use from PHL, making it have to survive on the O&D traffic that doesn't exist.
For those in PHL, they can drive up the turnpike to EWR or they can connect in JFK/Europe.
Feb 8, 2016, 12:37 pm
#4
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: TLV/ATH/LON/EZE/NYC/UIP
Programs: BA*GGL, A3*G, AF*P, VS*S
Posts: 1,011
You are suggesting markets based on the number of Jews. Do you realize that a huge amount of tourists are non-Jews. Speaking in generalities American Orthodox Jews come to Israel frequently--usually visiting relatives/parents/children. Non-Orthodox come in numbers far below their representation in the US. Non-Jews are the big tourists! It seems irrelevant where Jews are located in terms of having flights. What is relevant is where tourists are coming from. I 'd look first for fundamental Christian populations since they are huge supporters and make loads of trip.
Also if LY actually had a competitive business product (hard, soft, ground, price), they could look at where that kind of traffic is being under-served. Oh well!
If you're looking at general population, Jewish community, and diplomatic travellers, I'd have thought BWI was a pretty decent choice. It's close enough to Philly to compete with EWR for any O&D traffic, and is no less convenient than IAD for most Washington traffic. Baltimore itself has a huge Jewish community.
Just the Israeli embassy traffic would probably account for a pretty high proportion of seats at the pointy end, albeit they are cannibalising their NY traffic, but when they start replacing 747s with 787s shortly, they might do better to optimise point-to-point like that anyway.
BWI/Maryland are also known to offer decent incentives for international carriers, and with a $100m capex programme to improve this aspect of the airport, they're going to be looking for new markets...
Feb 8, 2016, 4:28 pm
#5
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: San Francisco/Tel Aviv/YYZ
Programs: CO 1K-MM
Posts: 10,761
I don't see LY expanding anywhere in the US until/unless they actually get the 787s on property, in numbers greater than to replace the 763s. And assuming they can equip the 78's properly, they might be able to be a bit competitive, but aside from MIA, I don't see anyplace in North America (other than possibly seasonal YUL) they'd really want to be.
It takes quite a bit of traffic to fill a WB... I'm very curious how BOS is doing. I'd expect that most of the tech/bio traffic in the bay is contracting with UA...
It takes quite a bit of traffic to fill a WB... I'm very curious how BOS is doing. I'd expect that most of the tech/bio traffic in the bay is contracting with UA...
Feb 9, 2016, 6:09 pm
#6
Original Poster
Join Date: Sep 2015
Programs: UA Million Mile, Mileage Plus Premier 1K, SkyMiles Gold Medallion, AAdvantage Gold
Posts: 875
You are suggesting markets based on the number of Jews. Do you realize that a huge amount of tourists are non-Jews. Speaking in generalities American Orthodox Jews come to Israel frequently--usually visiting relatives/parents/children. Non-Orthodox come in numbers far below their representation in the US. Non-Jews are the big tourists! It seems irrelevant where Jews are located in terms of having flights. What is relevant is where tourists are coming from. I 'd look first for fundamental Christian populations since they are huge supporters and make loads of trip.
Feb 10, 2016, 12:43 am
#8
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: HaMerkaz/Exit 145
Programs: UA, LY, BA, AA
Posts: 13,167
This is true that ~50% of tourists are Christians, while only ~30% are Jewish. However, Israelis travel to America much more than Americans travel to Israel, and the biggest destinations are business cities with a decent size Jewish population and vacation destinations (mostly NYC, LA, Miami, and Orlando). That is also important as El Al is flown primarily by Israelis and Americans will sometimes choose a one stop on a US airline over an El Al nonstop.
Feb 10, 2016, 7:28 pm
#9
Original Poster
Join Date: Sep 2015
Programs: UA Million Mile, Mileage Plus Premier 1K, SkyMiles Gold Medallion, AAdvantage Gold
Posts: 875
Most travelled to cities are from CAPA and a few other websites that reported individual numbers.
The correlation between cities with large Jewish populations and where Israelis travel was inferred by myself, as all of the top 9 cities (except Orlando due to tourism) visited by Israelis rank in the top 10 among US cities' Jewish populations. (Top cities in no particular order: NYC, LA, Chicago, Philly, DC/Baltimore, Miami, Boston, San Fran, Orlando). Now this could be coincidence, since large cities tend to have big Jewish populations, or it could be because the Israelis visiting relatives gives the cities an extra bump in traffic.
Feb 11, 2016, 1:23 am
#10
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: HaMerkaz/Exit 145
Programs: UA, LY, BA, AA
Posts: 13,167
Religious breakdown: http://www.timesofisrael.com/2013-re...vernment-says/
Most travelled to cities are from CAPA and a few other websites that reported individual numbers.
The correlation between cities with large Jewish populations and where Israelis travel was inferred by myself, as all of the top 9 cities (except Orlando due to tourism) visited by Israelis rank in the top 10 among US cities' Jewish populations. (Top cities in no particular order: NYC, LA, Chicago, Philly, DC/Baltimore, Miami, Boston, San Fran, Orlando). Now this could be coincidence, since large cities tend to have big Jewish populations, or it could be because the Israelis visiting relatives gives the cities an extra bump in traffic.
Most travelled to cities are from CAPA and a few other websites that reported individual numbers.
The correlation between cities with large Jewish populations and where Israelis travel was inferred by myself, as all of the top 9 cities (except Orlando due to tourism) visited by Israelis rank in the top 10 among US cities' Jewish populations. (Top cities in no particular order: NYC, LA, Chicago, Philly, DC/Baltimore, Miami, Boston, San Fran, Orlando). Now this could be coincidence, since large cities tend to have big Jewish populations, or it could be because the Israelis visiting relatives gives the cities an extra bump in traffic.
Again, I don't have stats one way or the other. I do know that outside the US, you see massive groups of Israeli traveling places that have small or no Jewish communities (think of the sold out 744 flying daily to BKK).
Feb 12, 2016, 10:39 am
#11
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: los angeles, calif.
Programs: Alaska Airlines Gold MVP
Posts: 7,170
Feb 27, 2016, 3:18 pm
#12
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 4,187
A great number of U.S. based travelers simply won't consider flying on LY because as their flights don't earn miles into the flyer's non-LY frequent flyer plan.
Additionally, airlines don't typically plan flights based on where tourists live. Most tourists book in advance on low revenue fares thus aren't all that profitable for the airline.
Route placement depends, in large part, upon where the uberich traveler lives (e.g. the person willing to pay for C or F) and on the location of businesses which send employees on short-notice trips at full fare.
Additionally, airlines don't typically plan flights based on where tourists live. Most tourists book in advance on low revenue fares thus aren't all that profitable for the airline.
Route placement depends, in large part, upon where the uberich traveler lives (e.g. the person willing to pay for C or F) and on the location of businesses which send employees on short-notice trips at full fare.
Feb 27, 2016, 9:55 pm
#13
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Programs: AA Gold AAdvantage Elite, Rapids Reward
Posts: 38,310
I don't see LY expanding anywhere in the US until/unless they actually get the 787s on property, in numbers greater than to replace the 763s. And assuming they can equip the 78's properly, they might be able to be a bit competitive, but aside from MIA, I don't see anyplace in North America (other than possibly seasonal YUL) they'd really want to be.
