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Claudette, thankfully, looks like she is losing her chance to become a hurricane and should come onshore on the before mentioned track shortly. The primary danger to the area should be flooding and that should be minimal...at least by tropical storm standards as the system is scheduled to keep moving up to the Mississippi River valley.
I suspect Bill will be a hurricane by the time I wake up in the morning. The strength forecast is not good but the track forecast is...no land in site for the foreseeable future.
Anna is all but dead. But she is tracking right over the islands. There is a chance that she could get her act together but if the track holds, there are some pretty high mountains in the way.
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Bill is a major hurricane with wind speeds of 125 mph and could get even stronger. Still only an interest to ships and the track continues to favor that...that kind of hurricanes that we can use. I suppose the Canadian Maritimes should keep an eye on in the long run
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Bill is a category 4 hurricane. Top winds are at 135 and he may get stronger yet.
I suppose Bermuda ought to keep an eye out but it's scheduled to move west of them.
I almost said something in my last post but I will now. The NOGAPS model (operated by the United States Navy) is farthest west of the models. The brings this storm fairly close to the NE coast of the USA. The margin for error at time range is significant. It ain't going to happen but that isn't to say it can't happen. I was worried about New Orleans for years and they only think they got the big one. New England is incredibly not ready either.
Record high temperature in Providence, Rhode Island of 94 yesterday. This has to have some effect of warming the coastal waters off New England.
Let's hope Bill veers off eastward into the cooler North Atlantic.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DLfan
Never say never, but...water temperatures that far North would make it very unlikely that a Cat 4 or 5 storm could ever hit New England.
Absolutely true enough. The problem will be...and it WILL BE when it happens is that the storm will be moving so fast to not lose strength and won't give that much time to prepare. Water temperatures are currently at 74 on the MA coast and 75 around NYC. Around 80 (but sometimes as low as 78) is key for tropical energy feedback. But the Gulf Stream does provide 80 degree sea surface temperatures very far north and only slightly off shore. I assume (but don't know) that the warm water is not an deep at those latitudes which is also a factor.
Never say never, but...water temperatures that far North would make it very unlikely that a Cat 4 or 5 storm could ever hit New England.
You're right. Never say never - an 1821 storm brought a 13-foot storm surge into lower Manhatten. Fortunately, it hit at low tide. In a city dependent on public transit for an evacuation, flooded subways won't be pretty.
A 1938 storm killed 600, most in the Providence area where tides were 30 feet above normal and 11 inches of rain fell.
Between the difficulty evacuating the area (not as well prepared & experience as FL) and the speed at which northern storms tend to move, it wouldn't take a Cat 4 or 5 to wreak havoc in the NE.
a cat 3 at nyc would be the world's most expensive natural disaster
While Katrina was a Cat 4 at landfall in Buras, Louisiana, Katrina was a Cat 3 at New Orleans, where there was the most loss of life from this storm. It was a Cat 2 well inland at Jackson, Mississippi, where 97 percent of structures experienced a power outage.
A storm does not need to be a Cat 4 or 5 to cause issues.
A Cat 2 at Manhattan would be a serious event in my humble opinion. FLorida isn't all that at evacuating people, nor is Texas. People get trapped on the highways during evacuations -- there were deaths during evacuation from Charley and over 100 evacuation deaths from Rita. I would not like to imagine the toll if NYC had to be evacuated. It isn't a matter of being ready. The population density is so great that there is no way to be ready. You can't move that mass of people in time.
I do not believe Bill will be hitting New England. Let's continue to pray that it avoids populated areas.
Long term, because of population pressures, I see no alternative to exploring some science that would allow us to turn hurricanes and force them away from populated areas. New Orleans (and the Gulf Coast region) did a great job in evacuating for Katrina. Federal projections suggested that 60 percent would evacuate for a big one. In the event, 80 percent were able to evacuate. And yet it was still a major disaster.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by indufan
I almost said something in my last post but I will now. The NOGAPS model (operated by the United States Navy) is farthest west of the models. The brings this storm fairly close to the NE coast of the USA. The margin for error at time range is significant. It ain't going to happen but that isn't to say it can't happen. I was worried about New Orleans for years and they only think they got the big one. New England is incredibly not ready either.
As someone who suffered through Katrina, I would rend to agree but only partially. I'd taken a class the spring semester (~5 months before Katrina) and we'd discussed what would happen with a Cat 5 landfall near where Katrina came ashore (or to the WEST of NOLA) and the overtopping of levees was a distinct possibility. Much of what was predicted (the "bowl" of the city filling with water and taking days/weeks to drain) happened. Though this was due to human error as much as anything.
I cannot fathom what would happen if a Cat 4/5 hurricane hit New England. The infrastructure isn't in place to handle the evacuees OR cleanup effort required to get things moving. I can foresee loss of life similar to, if not greater than, Katrina. Though not from flooding but building collapses/fires etc...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by peachfront
While Katrina was a Cat 4 at landfall in Buras, Louisiana, Katrina was a Cat 3 at New Orleans, where there was the most loss of life from this storm. It was a Cat 2 well inland at Jackson, Mississippi, where 97 percent of structures experienced a power outage.
A storm does not need to be a Cat 4 or 5 to cause issues.
Though, to be fair, Katrina was a Cat 5 just before "landfall" at Buras and the size of the storm was huge! The city took a beating before landfall...
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Bill is just meandering on along the forecast track. The track forecast is still good and shouldn't cause any major problems on land. The Maritimes could still get some effect but the water gets colder before the storm will arrive there. If the track moves any to the west, tropical storm watches or warnings may be posted for the New England coast. Large swells and riptides could be a problem along the eastern seaboard.
Another MediumHonker™ is already west of the Cape Verde Islands.
